Pass or fail: 3 reasons why Colorado State will win or lose in 2024

Bowl games are the expectation up and down the Front Range. Colorado State is no different.

It’s year three for Jay Norvell at CSU and with an 8-16 record across two seasons, there is legitimate pressure for him to win six games (or more) and qualify for a bowl game in 2024.

The vibe in Fort Collins has been positive as the Rams feel like they’ve finally accumulated the depth to complement the high-end talent that’s been carrying the workload for a few years.

Picked to finish fifth in the preseason media poll, the Mountain West is expecting a jump from CSU.

Here are three reasons why that will or won’t happen:

Success

1. The Rams have some of the best high-end talent in the Mountain West

There is star power in green and gold. In Tory Horton, the Rams have one of the best wide receivers in college football. He has a chance to set records in the conference before heading off to the NFL in April. CSU also has one of the best offensive lineman in the conference in center Jacob Gardner, who’s made more starts than anybody and is the leader of a unit that took a big step forward last season. On defense, safety Jack Howell is entering his third season as an impact player and should be on the shortlist for Defensive Player of the Year in the Mountain West.

2. Continuity

It’s the name of the game in college football. CSU has plenty of it — particularly on the coaching staff — in 2024. Only one on-field assistant coach has changed since Norvell was hired and the majority of the support staff has remained the same, as well. After Norvell's success with fewer resources at Nevada, there’s reason to believe this is the year it comes together at CSU and the continuity on the coaching staff should be a big reason why.

3. The Mountain West isn’t nearly as deep

It’s there for the taking. Outside of Boise State, which enters the season as the overwhelming favorite in the Mountain West and a contender for the College Football Playoff, there is no clear-cut second-best team. UNLV and Fresno State return plenty of talent, but the Rebels have a challenging schedule and the Bulldogs are dealing with the aftermath of coach Jeff Tedford’s sudden retirement this summer. Speaking of new coaches, the majority of the conference is breaking in a new head coach, so much so that Norvell, in his third season, is one of the longest-tenured. There’s no better year to take advantage of a so-so Mountain West.

Failure

1. Struggles in close games continue

CSU had four games decided on the final play last season and went 1-3 in those games. Just one going the other way would’ve meant a bowl game. There will likely be plenty of more one-score games for the Rams this season, and there’s always a chance Norvell’s team just never gets over the hump in that regard.

2. Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi fails to take next step at QB

Everything suggests Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi has what it takes to be the Rams’ star quarterback for the next three years. He’s young, committed to CSU despite offers from other big programs and has the “gunslinger” skill set to play in Norvell’s “Air Raid” offense. But the Rams also thought they had a multi-year starter at quarterback in Clay Millen, who benched after one game and transferred in the offseason. Nothing’s certain, especially at that position.

3. Defense continues to struggle against good offenses

In Norvell’s first season, the Rams probably don’t even get to three wins without the play of the defense. Last season, just one or two stops in close games gets CSU to a bowl game. It was surprising to see Freddie Banks’ defense fail to take a step forward with mostly the same personnel from the year before. Now, star edge rusher Mohamed Kamara is gone and the Rams must find a way to replace that production or they could be in for another long season trying to defend opposing passing attacks.

3 reasons Air Force will win or lose in a new-look year with a renovated Falcon Stadium and a roster reeling from the loss of 40 seniors

Success

1. Troy Calhoun and his experienced coaching staff in a conference with eight new head coaches

2. Fullback Dylan Carson is a 1,000-yard threat

3. Offensive/defensive systems that have produced a 40-12 record over the past four full seasons

Failure

1. Inexperience atop the depth chart after losing 17 starters

2. Inexperience down the depth chart for a team that often leans on its depth

3. Difficult road schedule that includes Baylor, Wyoming, Army and San Diego State

Brent Briggeman, The Denver Gazette