Breaking down early season individual performances on the Colorado Avalanche | Evan’s Take

Three games are a small sample size in the grand scheme of an 82-game season, but these three games have already felt like an eternity for the Colorado Avalanche.

There’s been a lot of bad, but also a fair bit of good. OK, maybe there wasn’t a whole lot of good in Monday’s loss to the New York Islanders. But in the first two games, the Avalanche did a lot of things right. Everything they did right was cancelled out by some downright bad goaltending.

With Colorado off Tuesday, let's dig into some of the individual performances — good and bad.

Goaltending

There’s no way to sugarcoat it: Alexandar Georgiev has been statistically the worst goaltender in the NHL. His 5-on-5 goals-saved above expected is sitting at minus-7.7, according to MoneyPuck.com. What does that mean? It means he’s letting in far more goals than the average goalie would, based on the shots he’s faced. Justus Annunen isn’t far ahead of him at minus–2.6, either.

Of the seven goalies at the bottom of that stat, four play for two teams — Edmonton and Colorado. Is it any surprise those teams are a combined 0-6 as of Tuesday?

Girard and Manson

Colorado’s second pair of Sam Girard and Josh Manson have been on the ice for a lot of goals against. Girard has been on for seven, while Manson has been on for six. Have they struggled a bit? That’s fair to say, particularly in Saturday’s loss to the Blue Jackets. Have they gotten help from their goaltenders? Not really.

Girard leads all Avalanche skaters with over 52 minutes played at even strength. In those 52 minutes, he’s only been on the ice for 22 shots against. That’s not bad at all, but when seven of them are in the back of your net, it stings.

Avalanche goaltenders are saving only 68% of the shots they’ve faced when Girard is on the ice. For players with over 30 minutes this season, that’s far and away the worst on-ice save percentage for any player in the league. Some of that is on Girard and Manson, but neither is getting much help from his goalie.

Makar

The numbers don’t look too bad for Cale Makar, but he has made some big mistakes. Judging by his comments after Monday’s loss, he knows it. His shorthanded giveaway Monday night to Brock Nelson gave the Islanders a 4-1 lead, and all but put the game away. On the fifth goal, he lost his guy in Anthony Duclair, and the Islanders winger waited out Georgiev for a goal.

Offensively, Makar will get his, but the concern now has to be his play in his own end. Again, it’s still early, but through three games, he’s at the bottom of the Avalanche defense when it comes to high-danger chances against per 60 minutes.

Filling in for the injured

OK, it’s not all bad. Colorado would prefer to not be missing three of its top four wingers, but with those players missing, Ross Colton has looked comfortable on the wing. That shouldn’t come as a surprise as he spent most of his time in Tampa Bay playing wing, but it has allowed him to play more freely. He’s been the most physical forward on the team and has been on the ice for significantly more scoring chances for than against.

If/when the Avalanche start to get players back, Colton will likely move back to center, but this is the kind of versatility he has in the lineup.

Kovalenko

He has no points yet, but Nikolai Kovalenko has shown some real flashes up front. He’s played physical, as he’s third among the forward groups in hits-per-60 and has created some offense. His underlying numbers also show that nothing terribly dangerous is happening when he’s on the ice. If the opposition is getting shot attempts, they’re not exactly dangerous ones. He’s been on the ice for 10 high-danger scoring chances for — and only four against. That’s the lowest among all the forwards who have played at least 30 minutes so far.

Mittelstadt

The power play is certainly helping his production, but Casey Mittelstadt has been a clear bright spot. He's had a goal in every game and looks comfortable on that top power-play unit. His role on that top unit might change as bodies return to the lineup, but he’s fit in well. If only the Avalanche had some more skilled wingers for him to play with at the moment.

It’s early, but the Avalanche are in danger of digging themselves a hole they might not be able to get themselves out of. They’ll look to salvage this homestand starting Wednesday against the Boston Bruins. That game starts at 7:30 p.m. and will be televised on TNT.