How different would everyone feel about the Avalanche if they happened to get a few more saves in their first two games?
“We can’t look back on that,” Avalanche coach Jared Bednar said after Wednesday’s 5-3 loss to Boston.
That makes sense. The fact is the Avalanche didn’t get those saves and are currently winless after four games, something the franchise hasn’t seen since 1998-99.
But when you’re 0-4, you must stay positive as much as possible. And outside of the game against the New York Islanders, where the Avalanche were clearly outclassed, it hasn’t been all bad.
“It’s been a weird start,” superstar Nathan MacKinnon said after an optional skate on Thursday. “I think we’ve played decent hockey...out of four games, we’ve had three solid ones and one really bad one. We talked a lot about analytics, and our analytics are pretty good, and everything’s decent, so I don’t know. Hopefully we get a win.”
"I agree with that assessment,” his coach said a few minutes later.
“We’ve got to put the whole package together.”
The analytics are certainly on Colorado’s side. In each of the four games, they’ve won the expected goals battle at 5-on-5. They haven’t won the actual goals battle, though, having been outscored 16 to 6 at even strength. All that matters is on the scoreboard, and the whole package hasn’t come together.
Every time it seems like the team is gaining some momentum, the puck is in the back of their net. And those goals against are coming in bunches.
Two goals against in 25 seconds in Vegas. Two goals against in 67 seconds against Columbus. Two goals against in 13 seconds against Boston.
And when the opposing team has tilted the ice, the Avalanche have taken too long to snap out of it. Each of the past two games were lost in the first 10 minutes of the second period when Colorado couldn’t get out of their own zone.
For the coach, it all starts with his team's willingness to compete and battle. It wasn’t there on Monday against Patrick Roy’s team, but it was there on Wednesday.
“We were emotionally invested,” Bednar said. “We were physical. We competed really hard in all areas. We made some mistakes, but that’s what we were lacking in game three, that emotional investment.”
With all the talent they’re currently missing due to injuries, that emotional investment must be there on a consistent basis. If it isn’t, the Avs will have a tough time digging themselves out of the hole they’re currently in.
What I’m hearing
—If you're hunting bright spots early in the season, look no further than Ross Colton. Maybe some of it has to do with him moving to the wing, which simplifies the game, but he has been significantly more impactful early on.
MacKinnon has taken notice.
“Just him running over guys all the time, definitely something since Landy’s been gone, we haven’t really had on our line,” MacKinnon said. “It’s pretty great out there.”
Colton has also been a big part of a power play that continues scoring despite missing a few players who normally play on the top unit.
"The three of us (MacKinnon, Cale Makar, Mikko Rantanen) have been playing together for so long, just that chemistry, and then (Mittelstadt) is unreal, and (Colton) is actually awesome in the middle," MacKinnon said. "Hopefully we can keep it going."
—Colorado clearly misses Artturi Lehkonen, Valeri Nichushkin and, now, Jonathan Drouin on the offensive side of things, but they may miss them even more in their own end. Lehkonen and Nichushkin are probably the two most complete forwards on the roster, and they also kill penalties, something the Avalanche have struggled to do early in the season. I also don't think it’s a coincidence this team hasn’t been the same defensively without Gabriel Landeskog around. He did a little bit of everything when he was in the lineup.
“They’re very trusted, highly reliable, good-to-great defensive players, all those guys,” Bednar said.
If or when the Avalanche get Lehkonen and Nichushkin back, the goals against will likely decrease. Colorado must keep its head above water until then. As we’ve seen so far, that might be easier said than done.
What I’m seeing
—Colorado is desperate for some working combinations, but one it has found is Casey Mittelstadt with Nikolai Kovalenko. Everything is a small sample size at this point, but they’re controlling the majority of the shot attempts when they’re on the ice and have an expected goals percentage of almost 70%.
The problem? Both are more passers than shooters, and the Avalanche don’t have a ton of shooters to put on that line — unless they want to move Rantanen away from MacKinnon.
—Devon Toews wasn’t perfect in the two games he played, and maybe some of that had to do with the mystery injury he’s currently dealing with. But, boy, is it evident when he’s not in the lineup. Asking Oliver Kylington to step up and play with Makar was probably too much to begin with, but it hasn’t been pretty. Getting Toews back will be just as important as some of the missing forwards.
What I’m thinking
—Is the NHL the only league in the world where the game doesn't actually start when they say it will? I watch a lot of KHL hockey, and if the game is scheduled to start at 8 p.m., the puck is dropped at exactly 8 p.m. With the NHL, a 7:30 start means 7:37, or, if TNT or ESPN is broadcasting the game, you might as well not tune in until 7:50.
—The other team off to a slow start is the Nashville Predators, and that doesn’t really surprise me. Maybe they’ll turn it around just like the Avalanche hope to turn it around, but the majority of their top six forwards are in their mid-30's. It’s hard to win with a setup like that in today’s NHL. They should still be a playoff team, but I don’t see a contender.
—Just wanted to take a moment to recognize my first hockey coach, Terry Clemenson, who passed away recently after a fight with cancer. A good coach is a lot like a good teacher — if they inspire you and help you believe in yourself at a young age, that belief can carry you forward for the rest of your life. Mr. Clemenson helped develop my love for hockey when I was 8. I’ll never forget that.
My condolences to his family. The world has lost a great hockey man.
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