Predicting what happens with the young players on the Colorado Avalanche

The Avalanche currently have five rookies and one defenseman playing their first full year in the NHL on their roster. A month from now, will they even have half that?

A few seem destined to stay, while a few seem like good bets to end up in the AHL when the team gets healthy. Then you’ve got at least two where it’s difficult to pin down exactly what the team has planned for them.

The team has played five games, but you can start to read the tea leaves a little bit. Let’s look at how things could play out for the six players in question.

Staying

Sam Malinski

It would be a massive surprise if Malinski was anywhere but Denver in a month or really, the rest of the season. He earned his spot fair and square with a strong performance through training camp and has had a solid start to the year. He’s technically not considered a rookie, according to NHL.com, but we’ll include him anyway.

Against the Ducks, the Avalanche completely dominated the puck with Malinski on the ice, out-attempting Anaheim 36-10. He also showed off a bit more muscle in his own end, knocking a few Ducks forwards off the puck to get the puck moving in transition.

Coach Jared Bednar and Nolan Pratt like having three right-shooting defensemen in the lineup if they can, so he’s got a leg up on any competition in that regard.

Nikolai Kovalenko

Kovalenko, who turned 25 earlier this week, had his moments during the first three games of the season, but has been far more noticeable the last two games, generating 12 shot attempts in his last 25 minutes at even-strength and picking up his first career point. Does it seem like he’s growing more confident and comfortable in the system?

“I do (think he is),” Bednar said of Kovalenko on Saturday. “He’s a confident player anyway, right? He’s a really inquisitive guy, too. He wants to learn, and he wants to know the way I want the game played for our team. Every meeting, he kind of gets clearer.”

Bednar pointed out that Kovalenko tried to push through the Ducks by himself ahead of one of the goals Colorado gave up. That might work in the KHL, but not in the NHL.

“I talked to him about it on the bench, and then I talked to him about it after, and he’s like, ‘Okay, I get it,’” the coach said. “I expect him to become better and better and those mistakes to become less frequent, but he works hard, and I want him to play with confidence and continue to make plays.”

One area of the game where Kovalenko has made an immediate impact is along the boards. He’s been the most physical forward on the team outside of Ross Colton, and despite his size, has been very good at winning puck battles.

“He’s been awesome,” Casey Mittelstadt said of the Russian winger. “He’s been winning a ton of battles and seems to find me when I’m open.”

The other aspects of his game will help him stay in the lineup when some other wingers return to the lineup.

Likely headed to the AHL

Matt Stienburg

Two months ago, no one would have expected Stienburg to even be in the NHL at this point, so he’s already surpassed expectations by being here. Is it likely to last? Probably not, unless the Avalanche just never get healthy, but he’s now put himself in the conversation as a top call-up for the team if they need a big body for the fourth line.

And that’s a huge win for the young forward.

Ivan Ivan

This is a tough one to pin down. Ivan consistently makes the right decisions with and without the puck whenever he’s on the ice. All he's done is impress in his short time with the Avalanche. What it might really come down to is a pure numbers game.

Ivan doesn’t have to pass through waivers to go to the AHL. If Colorado wanted to move on from a guy like Joel Kiviranta to keep Ivan on the roster, they’d have to send him through waivers. Would Kiviranta get claimed? It’s highly unlikely, but a team like Colorado might not want to take that risk when they’re already thin up front.

Even if Ivan heads to the AHL, he'll immediately become the top call-up option for the organization, so he will be seen again.

Anyone’s guess

Justus Annunen

We will dig into this more on Monday, but with Kaapo Kahkonen finally arriving after dealing with a long immigration process, the Avalanche will carry three goalies.

For now.

There’s no way this lasts for long, as teams just don’t like carrying that many goaltenders. The arrival of Kahkonen is far more likely to mean bad news for Annunen, not Georgiev. Annunen signed a two-year extension towards the end of last season and that second year might be enough to sneak him through waivers, if the Avalanche were to try.

Our guess: At some point, he ends up on waivers.

Calum Ritchie

This is the million-dollar question – will Ritchie spend the entire season with the Avalanche or not?

Ritchie has been getting consistent ice-time, although he’s moved up and down the lineup depending on the game. Results have been...mixed.

“He’s doing well. He’s had some good games (and) some not-so good games,” Bednar said on Saturday of Ritchie. “I’m not going to say bad games, because he’s a young kid learning and going through this process.”

You see the flashes offensively, but he’s still got a long way to go defensively. The speed of the game has looked like it’s a bit too much for him, but it’s not all bad. He’s second among Avalanche forwards in individual expected-goals-for per 60, so he’s had chances.

If Ritchie plays 10 games this year, one year of his three-year entry-level contract will be burned. By the time he plays that ninth game, which could happen in a little over a week, the team will probably have more clarity, but they don’t have that right now.

“We don’t have anything firm,” Bednar said Saturday. “And part of it is health of our lineup...we’re just taking it day-by-day. The health and strength of our lineup is going to impact our decision with him as well, but, it’s all about what we think is best for him and his development, so nothing is set in stone yet.”

Once some bodies start to return to the lineup, ice-time will be tougher to come by for the youngster, and that’s what it really might come down to.

Our guess: He eventually goes back to Oshawa, plays a key role for Team Canada at the World Juniors, and goes on a long playoff run in the OHL.