Detroit Tigers Newsletter: Projecting the final 18 games in the chase for the MLB playoffs

After so many years dwelling in the cellar, a Detroit team is finally inching toward postseason success, one improbable rally at a time.

Yes, the Detroit Tigers have gone 21-14 since the start of August — that’s a .600 winning percentage, or a 97-win pace over 162 games.

What, you thought we were discussing the Lions ?

Indeed, just as the Lions rallied late in their season opener Sunday night against the LA Rams , the Tigers have found late-summer success with comebacks, with 12 of those 21 victories coming after trailing at some point during the game.

And now the Tigers are going for the biggest comeback of all, as they’re — somehow — in an honest-to-God, no-kidding, scoreboard-watching playoff chase . Their win in Oakland, California, on Sunday left them tied for the top spot outside the three AL wild-card berths, just 3½ games back of the Minnesota Twins with 18 games (19 for the Twinkies) left to play.

Unfortunately for the Tigers, their deficit isn’t actually 3½ games, as it won’t be enough just to catch the Twins (or the second-place Royals, if they really fall apart) — it’s really 4½ games.

Hello, and welcome to the Comeback City Newsletter!

Y’see, MLB’s playoff tiebreaker rules — replacing Game 163s that were done in by a compressed playoff schedule requiring three games in the wild-card round — don’t break in the Tigers' favor this season. The first tiebreaker is head-to-head record: The Twins edge the Tigers there, 7-6. It doesn’t get any better in a three-way tie between the Twins, Tigers and either the Seattle Mariners or the Boston Red Sox. Those clubs would be the first eliminated, thanks to losing their season series against both the Tigers and Twins — though the BoSox and Twins still have three games to play, on Sept. 20-22 in Boston — and then it’s back to a Tigers/Twins tiebreak.

The best scenario for the Tigers? The Twins completely falling apart and falling behind the Tigers, BoSox AND the M’s — the Tigers have the tiebreaker over Boston and Seattle. (There’s also the possibility, however faint, of a FIVE-WAY tie for the final wild-card spot, with the Rays lurking as well. But considering the Tigers still have a series vs. Tampa Bay, and the Red Sox have two series left against them, we’re not computing the tiebreakers on that scenario … yet.)

Of course, for all this to matter — to us, at least — the Tigers have to win a lot of their games, and the Twins have to lose a lot of theirs. It’s feasible, though; the Tigers’ remaining strength of schedule, at .465, is the third easiest in the majors, thanks to three games apiece against each league’s cellar-dwellers, the White Sox and the Rockies — who entered Monday a combined 87-201. The Twins, meanwhile, have an SOS of .489, good for the 18 ^th -hardest in the majors.

So do the Tigers actually have a chance to make up 3½ — or 4½ — games over their final 18? Let’s predict the two teams’ remaining series:

Monday-Thursday: Tigers vs. Rockies (3), Twins vs. Angels (3)

The buzz: Don’t sleep on the Rox in a short series — they took two of three from the Guardians and Royals earlier this season. But no team in baseball allows more runs per game (5.72, half a run worse than the No. 2 staff), and the Tigers have Tarik Skubal on the mound for Thursday’s matinee finale. The Twins, meanwhile, get a rematch with the Halos, who they swept in Anaheim in April while outscoring them 32-13.

The picks: We’ll take the Tigers in a sweep with Skubal picking up 10 strikeouts against the majors’ No. 2 team in strikeouts (at 9.9 per game). The Twins, however, take only two of three, dropping Wednesday’s series finale. Twins lead Tigers by 2½ games.

Friday-Sunday: Tigers vs. Orioles (3), Twins vs. Reds (3)

The buzz: The O’s, tops in the wild-card race by 5½ games, bring a power-happy attack that’s No. 2 in homers (213) and averages 1.5 dingers per road game. The Reds, meanwhile, see their power drop from 1.3 homers per game at home to just one per game on the road.

The picks: Baltimore gets the win Friday and then again Saturday with ace Corbin Burnes (the likely AL Cy Young runner-up) on the mound, but the Tigers avoid a sweep with their opener strategy on Sunday. The Twins, meanwhile, take two of three from Cincy, with righty Nick Martinez (3.67 ERA) saving the Reds on Saturday. Twins lead Tigers by 3½ games.

Sept. 16-19: Tigers at Royals (3), Twins at Guardians (4)

The buzz: The Royals have mustered just 2.67 runs a game in nine games since first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino suffered a broken right thumb, though they’re coming off a sweep of the Twins this weekend. The Tigers still don’t have an answer for star shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., who has a 1.029 OPS (including three homers) against the Tigers. The Twins have lost seven of nine already to the Guardians, though they split a four-game series last month.

The picks: The Tigers gave up 26 runs in three games in their May trip to K.C. They’ll pitch much better this time and take two out of three. The Guardians meanwhile, get three of four from the Twins. Twins lead Tigers by 2 games.

Sept. 20-22: Tigers at Orioles (3), Twins at Red Sox (3)

The buzz: Do the Tigers keep Skubal on the five days (or more) rest he’s had for his past three starts? If so, he misses the O’s completely and starts vs. the Rays (on six days rest). But four days rest the rest of the month lines him up for a Sunday finale in Baltimore. The Twins, meanwhile, get a rematch with the BoSox, who they took two of three from in Minneapolis in May.

The picks: Skubal toes the rubber in the Sunday game and stops a sweep in Charm City in his penultimate start. Minnesota's Max Kepler went 5-for-10 with a double and a homer in that series against the Sox; he went the IL on Sept. 5, though, and the Twins drop two of three in Beantown. Twins lead Tigers by 2 games.

Sept. 24-26: Tigers vs. Rays (3), Twins vs. Marlins (3)

The buzz: Almost nobody sold at the trade deadline like the Rays, who shipped out Randy Arozarena, Zach Eflin, Isaac Paredes — who was 5-for-12 with three extra-base hits against his ex-team in April — and Amed Rosario, among others, in July. The other big deadline seller? The Marlins, who are 14-21 in August and September.

The picks: The Rays have won their past two series (against the Twins and Orioles) so the players aren’t giving up, even if their front office did. They scratch out one win in the Midwestern chill. The Marlins do too, with red-hot Connor Norby — their deadline return for left-hander Trevor Rogers — going deep at Target Field. Twins lead Tigers by 2 games.

Sept. 27-29: Tigers vs. White Sox (3), Twins vs. Orioles (3)

The buzz: Three of these four teams will have playoff potential to play for. The White Sox, however, could be playing for history. They’re at 111 losses with 19 games to play; 119 losses is the AL record (held by the 2003 Tigers), and 120 is the modern MLB record (held by the 1962 Mets). Will they have both those locked up in the 16 games before they hit Detroit? Probably.

The picks: The Tigers already have nine wins in 10 games against the ChiSox. The Royals and Twins, of course, have 12 wins in 13 games; the Tigers match them both with a season-ending sweep. But the Twins eke out the series opener vs. the O’s to lock up a wild-card spot … and then lose their final two. Because ... baseball .

The final tally: The Tigers finish 12-6 in their final 18, while the Twins go 9-10. (The Mariners, meanwhile, go 8-10 and the Red Sox go 10-9, so we don’t have to work out any more tiebreakers.) Twins and Tigers tied at 85-77, with the Twins taking the tiebreaker.

M&M boys

Of course, there’s more to September than just whether the Tigers make the playoffs. (Although, seriously, who’d have thought a couple months ago we’d be contemplating that.) Several Tigers are playing for roles in 2025; that includes a pair of right-handed starters — Casey Mize and Keider Montero — according to the Freep’s Evan Petzold.

Flip the script

Then again, the Tigers’ rotation has been in flux for the past 5½ weeks, thanks to trades and injuries. And yet, they’ve thrived in their climb from 7½ games out of the AL’s final wild-card spot on July 30. One big reason? The adoption of an opener/bulk-relief setup that maximized the potential of the Tigers’ arms , notes Our Man Petzold, including rookie left-hander Brant Hurter, who has a 2.89 ERA over 28 innings in six relief appearances.

Vier-ing toward experience

Part of the Tigers’ success has resulted from players stepping up in new roles. That includes Matt Vierling, who only turns 28 next Monday and yet has become one of the elder statesmen on the roster. (Among position players on the 26-man roster, only Andy Ibáñez, at 31, and Jake Rogers and Zach McKinstry, at 29, are older than Vierling.) Despite his relative youth, Vierling is one of the few Tigers with World Series experience, Our Man Petzold noted last week, and he has drawn on that in Detroit : “I don't have a ton of experience, so I try to answer the questions the best I can.”

Hamm-ing it up

The Tigers could get even younger next year, as the next generation of prospects makes its way toward the majors. That includes Jaden Hamm, a 2023 fifth-round pick who cracked Baseball America’s top-100 prospects list in August. The right-hander is BA’s No. 95 prospect thanks to a 2024 season with High-A West Michigan in which he has posted a 2.73 ERA with 122 strikeouts and 31 walks in 99 innings. What’s the secret to Hamm’s sudden success? In a Q&A with Our Man Petzold, Hamm kept it simple : “I'm just trying to reverse the roles on them now instead of just giving them heaters like I did at the beginning of the year.”

3 to watch

Let’s zip back to the majors for three players to watch this week:

JAVIER BÁEZ: His hip surgery was performed by the Lions’ team doctor .

REESE OLSON: The young right-hander will have a light workload if he returns this month .

JOEY WENTZ: The left-hander is now a Pirate and made his Pittsburgh debut on Thursday .

Happy birthday, Mickey!

Mickey Lolich, the Tigers’ career leader in strikeouts (2,679) turns 84 on Thursday. The lefty from Oregon topped 200 strikeouts in seven of his 13 seasons (1963-75) as a Tiger, with the final 200-strikeout campaign coming 50 years ago this season, in 1974. That season, Lolich struck out 202 in 308 innings while going 16-21 with a 4.15 ERA. Arguably his best season came in 1971, when he led the majors with 25 wins, 376 innings and 308 strikeouts while finishing second in AL Cy Young voting (behind Oakland’s Vida Blue) and fifth in the AL MVP vote.

Other Tigers birthdays this week: Edwin Jackson (41 on Monday), José Ureña (33 on Thursday), Derek Law (34 on Saturday), Delmon Young (39 on Saturday), George Lombard (49 on Saturday).

TL;DR

Maybe we’re being a little too optimistic over the Tigers’ chances. Fangraphs, after all, still has them with an overall projected win total of 82, and just a 7.5% shot of grabbing a wild-card berth. The Twins, meanwhile, have a 79.6% chance at a wild-card spot. (Fangraphs pegs the Twins for 86 wins, which makes us feel a bit better about our 85-win projection for them.)

But less than six weeks ago (on July 30), the Tigers were looking at 76 wins, with a 1.2% shot at a wild-card berth. Heck, the odds were at 4.6% entering September.

So why not take this all the way? After all, if the Lions can turn things around in just three years, what’s three weeks for the Tigers?

Contact Ryan Ford at rford@freepress.com . Follow him on X (which used to be Twitter, y’know?) @theford .

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Detroit Tigers Newsletter: Projecting the final 18 games in the chase for the MLB playoffs