Detroit Tigers Newsletter: How many wins do the Tigers need in the next 2 weeks (we think)

During manager A.J. Hinch’s three-plus years with the Detroit Tigers , his teams are 52-40 in September and October.

That’s a .565 winning percentage, and far and away superior to his Tigers winning percentage of .452 in the other five-ish months of the season.

This season, they’re 8-5 in September — a .615 winning percentage (and roughly a 100-win pace over a 162-game season).

But really, there’s just a couple numbers that matter over the next two weeks.

The first: 2½ — as in the number of games the Tigers trail the Minnesota Twins by in the American League wild-card race. At least, technically . With MLB's tiebreaker setup, it’s actually 3½ , as we broke down last week .

And the second: 12 — as in the number of games the Tigers have left to overcome that deficit.

It’s just one of the ways that, as the Freep’s Shawn Windsor wrote last week, baseball is set up to break your heart in the fall . Even the narrowest gap in the standings feels enormous when you blow a winnable game with a ninth-inning stumble . And yet, until the “magic number” hits zero, there’s always a chance, especially when your team is doing crazy things like throwing 8⅔ innings of no-hit ball .

The reality, however, is somewhere in between.

Hello, and welcome to the Down To A Dozen Newsletter.

For example, the Tigers split their Saturday and Sunday games against a good Orioles team (while the Twins split with the not-good Reds) — and actually saw their playoff odds drop , per Fangraphs , from 11.4% following Friday’s games to 9.9% entering Monday.

The reason, of course, is that just as a team at Ford Field gets to use the sidelines as a quasi-12 ^th defender — sorry, the Freep’s Jeff Seidel’s jaunt to both parks for Sunday’s two-sport twin-bill has us mixing our sporting metaphors — the Twins’ defense of the final wild-card berth is helped out, at least a little bit, every time a day ticks off the calendar, no matter the result.

But, really, just how big is a 3½-game deficit? How often have teams overcome that gap in the final two weeks?

In the eight full seasons* since 2014 — the last season the Tigers made the playoffs, which seems just fine as an arbitrary cutoff —a whopping 22 teams have entered the final two weeks of the season within 3½ games of a wild-card spot. And of those, three have made the postseason, and only two did it as wild-card teams.

*We’re ignoring 2020, which was a weird season. Not only was it just 60 games, but eight teams in each league made the playoffs, leaving the standings a bit … scrunched with just two weeks left. How scrunched? With two weeks to play, the 2020 Tigers were six games under .500 — and still just 2½ games out of the FIFTH wild-card spot. No thanks.

So what happened to all those teams? Let’s break them their chases, in reverse chronological order (with their deficit from the final wild-card spot in parentheses). We’ll be quick. Promise.

2023 AL: Mariners (1) — Not only were the M’s thisclose to the Rangers last season, they had SEVEN games left against them. Unfortunately, they went 3-4 in those, dropping a game in the process, and 7-6 overall to finish two games back of Texas and one game back of the Blue Jays for the final wild-card spot.

2023 NL: Cubs (0), Reds (½)  & Giants (2) — Yes, three teams were chasing the Marlins (remember when they weren’t awful — this was just last year) and the Diamondbacks, who were separated by half a game in the second and third wild-card spots. Those squads didn’t exactly have a great finishing kick, going 5-7 and 6-6, respectively. But the playoff hopefuls? Ugh: The Cubs, who were tied with the Marlins but didn’t have the tiebreaker, went 5-7; the Reds went 4-7; and the Giants went 3-9, including a pair of losses to the D’backs.

2022 NL: Brewers (2½) — The Brew Crew got hot and Matt Vierling's Phillies froze up, shrinking the deficit to just half a game with six to play … but Philly took three of four from a 107-loss Nationals team to give itself some breathing room and finished a game up on Milwaukee, which went 7-6 in the final fortnight. (The Phils then stormed to the World Series, but that’s a tale for another newsletter.)

2021 AL: Yankees (1½) & Athletics (2) — Already, we’re back to the days of just two wild-card spots in each league, occupied in 2021 by the Red Sox and Blue Jays, separated by a game. The BoSox went 6-5, the Jays 7-6 — which should have been enough, except that the Yanks ripped off a seven-game win streak as part of a 9-3 finish (including taking two of three from the Jays) to grab the final wild-card spot. (The A’s muddled to a 4-9 finish and sold off most of their stars the following offseason. Sorry, guys.)

2021 NL: Padres (3), Reds (3) & Phillies (3½) — Cincy, at 6-6, had the best finish of the three teams trying to catch the Cardinals, who closed with an 11-3 kick. The Phils went 6-7, meanwhile, and the Padres? A brutal 2-10.

2019 AL: Cleveland (1½) — Tough luck for Cleveland that in a season with six great teams — with 12 games to play, Cleveland was 7½ ahead of the AL’s seventh-best team — there were just five playoff spots. Worse luck that they closed with a 6-6 finish to reach 93 wins … but the Rays went 7-4 for 96 wins (and still only wound up in the second wild-card spot — the AL was stacked ).

2019 NL: Brewers (1) — The other team on our list to grab a wild-card spot, Milwaukee went 9-1 (despite losing its final three games) at the same time the Cubs went 1-9, allowing the Brewers to lock up the second berth with five games to play.

2018 NL: Cardinals (0) & Dodgers (0) — LA and Matthew Stafford pal Clayton Kershaw had the final wild-card spot and was just half a game out of the NL West lead, behind the Rockies. The Dodgers closed with a 9-3 finish; Colorado went 9-4 and the two played a Game 163, with the winner (LA) getting the division and the loser getting the wild-card spot … mostly because the Cards went just 6-6 over that span.

2017: Angels (2) — Unfortunately for the Halos, their schedule broke hard at just the wrong time, as they lost five of six to eventual 100-game winners Cleveland and Houston en route to a 4-9 finish. The Twins’ 7-6 finish wasn’t great, but it was more than enough to hold off the squad from Anaheim.

2017 NL: Brewers (2½) — Milwaukee (funny how they keep showing up on this list) won three of its final four series … but dropped three of four games at home to the Cubs, for a 7-6 close to wind up a game behind the Rockies, who went 5-7 down the stretch.

2016 AL: Mariners (2), Tigers (2) & Astros (3) — Brad Ausmus’s squad actually went 7-5 to finish with 86-75 — the franchise’s most recent winning season — while the M’s went 7-6 and the Astros went 6-7, but the Blue Jays pulled away (slightly) with an 8-5 finish (that included taking two of three in Seattle).

2016 NL: Cardinals (1) — Meanwhile, in the NL, the Cards’ 8-5 finish (to also get to 86-76) still left them one game behind the Giants, who locked up the final wild-card spot with a sweep of the Dodgers, who’d already locked up the NL West.

2015 AL: Twins (2½) & Angels (2½) — Both the Twinkies and the Halos were chasing A.J. Hinch’s Astros, who closed with a 7-5 finish to reach 86 wins and their first playoff berth since 2005. The Angels put together a seven-game win streak to pass the ‘Stros with five games to play, but then lost three of those five to finish a game back after a 9-4 finish. The Twins? Just 7-6 to finish, done in by three straight losses to the AL Central-champion Royals to end the season.

So what’s the goal? Look, the Tigers will still need some help from the Twins, who have 10 games left against playoff hopefuls in Baltimore, Cleveland (a four-game set starting Monday) and Boston and three against the NL-worst Marlins. But nine wins appears a good target (and a mere seven or eight almost certainly won't be enough) — of the four wild-card “outsiders” that won nine times in the final two weeks, three made up enough ground for a postseason berth. Can the Tigers get those nine wins? We’ll have a better feel for that once they finish up their three-game AL Central showdown in Kansas City.

(And just in case you need a refresher on the full gauntlet facing the Tigers before they wrap up the season with three games against the Chicago White Sox, the Freep’s Evan Petzold has you covered .)

Mark your calendar!

Three games in Kansas City? Who’s starting those? For the first time in six weeks or so, the Tigers will have three established starters — sort of. Monday’s starter is still technically our old friend “TBD,” but it sure seems like right-hander Reese Olson is ready to make his return from the injured list, as Our Man Petzold, and the Tigers’ Man Hinch noted this weekend : "We don't really have to fully commit, so I'm doing my best to not fully commit, but I'm sure hoping that he pitches in the Kansas City series." After that, it’s the recently returned Casey Mize, whose splitter finally appears in working order , on Tuesday. And Wednesday is Tarik Skubal Day, assuming he’s fully recovered from the comebacker off his non-pitching hand in his previous start , in his personal house of horrors — Skubal’s ERA is 6.14 at Kauffman Stadium and just 3.87 at all other road venues. (For the Royals, meanwhile, it’ll be Seth Lugo, with a 2.94 ERA; Cole Ragans, chasing Skubal for the AL strikeout lead; and Alec Marsh, who beat the Tigers on May 21.)

Greene’s days

Another Tiger looking to excise some recent demons at The K? Riley Greene, who went 1-for-11 there in April. That’s against the form of his first two seasons, when he went 17-for-49 — a .347 average — in 13 games in 2022-23. The Tigers will need Greene in top form this week since, as Our Man Seidel noted, he’s often the engine that makes the Detroit offense go (just as he did with a pair of home runs Sunday ).

Hurt’s so good

Another Tigers lefty probably won’t make his Kauffman debut this season — Brant Hurter, who’s coming off 5⅔ no-hit innings in the Tigers’ combined one-hitter Friday night. Five of the rookie’s seven appearances have come on five days rest, meaning he might not be available till Friday (and he might not be needed on four days rest Wednesday). Hurter has a 1.13 ERA in relief this month — the result, as he told Our Man Petzold, of a mechanical fix that has him “do a little rock first” before he delivers his pitches.

Happy birthday, ‘Sherman!’

That would be the nickname for Tigers outfielder (and sometimes-third baseman) Matt Vierling, who turns 28 on Monday. Despite the advancing age — he’s still one of the Tigers’ oldest position players — this is still just his fourth big-league season, and this season has brought career highs in runs (72), homers (16), RBIs (54) and total bases (209). Vierling has been particularly productive since the All-Star break, with a .280/.341/.423 slash line in 46 games.

Other Tigers birthdays this week: Robbie Grossman (35 on Monday), Mickey Tettleton (64 on Monday), Dillon Dingler (26 on Tuesday), Spencer Turnbull (32 on Wednesday), Cecil Fielder (61 on Saturday), Aurelio López (would have been 76 on Saturday; died in 1992), Hooks Dauss (would have been 135 on Sunday; died in 1963).

3 to watch

And then there are the kids coming along …

JACKSON JOBE: He’s finally at Triple-A …  but Saturday’s start was a little rough .

KEIDER MONTERO: He’s riding a 14-inning scoreless streak, including a complete-game shutout Tuesday .

WENCEEL PÉREZ: He’s back from the IL … and cleared to hit from both sides of the plate .

TL;DR

Of course, no matter how many games the Tigers win in their final dozen (though we might like to see at least five, just so we can finally stop pointing at 2016 as the most recent winning season), it’ll be tough not to view this season as a success. After all, they’ve won over the Freep’s Carlos Monarrez, who had one final piece of advice last week: “Please enjoy this ride, whatever may come of it.”

And just remember: If the Tigers’ playoff chase does go down to their matchup with the White Sox on the last day of the season, they’ll have the District to themselves — the Lions don’t play at Ford Field till Monday night.

Contact Ryan Ford at rford@freepress.com . Follow him on X (which used to be Twitter, y’know?) @theford .

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Detroit Tigers Newsletter: How many wins do the Tigers need in the next 2 weeks (we think)