The Detroit Tigers (83-74) started a six-game homestand on Tuesday with the chance to lock up a spot in the MLB playoffs and with every day their positioning seems to look better.
The homestand began with the Tigers outlasting the Rays with a 2-1 in in a pitching duel , giving them one less win they need to get to clinch a spot in October.
Here's what to know as the postseason race winds down:
The Tigers' magic number is a little complicated. To beat out the Minnesota Twins and to make the playoffs, the Tigers' magic number is 5 , meaning they need a combination of five wins or losses from the team behind them in the standings — in this case, the Minnesota Twins — to reach the postseason. The Tigers (83-74) have a 1½-game lead over the Twins (81-75) , a two-game lead over the Seattle Mariners and a half-game lead over the Kansas City Royals for the second AL wild-card spot (with the Royals holding the tiebreaker).
That means, technically, the Tigers have multiple different magic numbers. For the Royals, the magic number is 6, to eliminate the Twins that number is 5, but it isn't quite that simple, since the Red Sox, Mariners, and even the Rays could technically catch the Tigers and Twins if they both lose a bunch of games down the stretch.
The Tigers enter the stretch as one of the hottest teams in baseball with a 13-5-record and five straight series wins in September. A combination of elite pitching and clutch hitting with manager A.J. Hinch pulling the right strings has put them in a strong position. And the Tigers pushed the chips in even further Monday by calling up MLB's top pitching prospect, Jackson Jobe , to join the bullpen for the postseason hunt.
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Here's a full breakdown of the Tigers' wild-card magic number scenarios.
Detroit Tigers schedule
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Minnesota Twins schedule
- Twins vs. Miami Marlins (57-99) on Tuesday-Thursday.
- Twins vs. Baltimore Orioles (86-70) on Friday-Sunday.
Kansas City Royals schedule
- Royals at Washington Nationals (69-87) on Tuesday-Thursday.
- Royals at Atlanta Braves (85-71) on Friday-Sunday.
Seattle Mariners schedule
- Mariners at Houston Astros (85-72) on Tuesday-Wednesday.
- Mariners vs. Oakland Athletics (67-89) on Friday-Sunday.
Boston Red Sox schedule
- Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays (73-84) on Tuesday-Wednesday.
- Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays (78-78) on Friday-Sunday.
How MLB wild card tiebreakers work
The recent introduction of tiebreakers instead of a 163rd game to settle ties in the standings complicates the Tigers' magic number equation . The tiebreakers are decided based on head-to-head records, meaning the Tigers are technically a game behind the Royals after losing the season series 7-6 and have to finish a game ahead of the Twins, who also won the season series against Detroit 7-6.
The math goes even deeper in this wacky wild-card race. As the Free Press' weekly newsletter pointed out Monday , the Tigers have magic numbers in relation to the rest of the teams alive in the wild-card race depending on how the final six games play out.
"The Tigers really have a series of magic numbers, I think: 10 with Baltimore, 7 with Kansas City, 6 with Minnesota, 4 with Seattle, 3 with Tampa Bay, 2 with Boston," via former Free Press sports editor Gene Myers.
Detroit Tigers' tragic number
The Tigers' elimination number, or "tragic number," is 7 entering the final week.
Tragic numbers work in the inverse of magic numbers. Seven combined Tigers losses and Twins wins would eliminate the Tigers from the playoffs, assuming the Royals maintain their standing ahead of the Tigers.
Jared Ramsey is a sports reporter for the Detroit Free Press covering the city's professional teams, the state's two flagship universities and more. Follow Jared on X @jared_ramsey22 , and email him at jramsey@freepress.com.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Detroit Tigers' wild card chances: Magic number, what needs to happen in final week
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