With less than six weeks to go until the Nov. 5 general election, polling data suggests Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris is maintaining a narrow lead on Republican former President Donald Trump in Michigan and a couple of other important swing states, as well as nationally.
It's still close enough, however, that the race should be considered a virtual toss-up.
Since the Sept. 10 debate in Philadelphia between the two, which Harris was widely seen by pundits and voters to have won , her support has improved modestly nationwide and in a few key states, Michigan included, when looking at average results compiled by websites that track and aggregate polling data, including FiveThirtyEight.com , RealClearPolitics.com and 270towin.com .
Just this week, the Free Press published an exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll of Michigan that showed Harris with a lead of 48%-45% over Trump, a 3-percentage-point margin that's within the survey's plus or minus 4.4-point margin of error.
Nationally, polling averages say Harris is leading from anywhere between 2 to 3 percentage points, suggesting she's the narrow favorite to win the popular vote. But the election ultimately will come down to six or seven states which could go either way and tip the balance in the Electoral College, which determines the actual outcome.
That helps explain the respective campaigns' continued interest in blitzing Michigan with ads and visits. On Wednesday, Trump's running mate, U.S. Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, stumped in Traverse City and Trump had a couple of events planned for Friday in west Michigan and in Warren. Last week, Harris held a livestreaming event with Oprah Winfrey in Farmington Hills and on Saturday, her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, was set to be at the football game in Ann Arbor between the University of Michigan and the University of Minnesota .
Here are the polling averages in Michigan, according to those websites, as of midday Thursday (and note that sometimes the percentage-point spread doesn't match the poll figures because of rounding done by those websites):
- FiveThirtyEight.com: Harris 48.5% (+2.6), Trump 46%.
- RealClearPolitics.com: Harris 49.1% (+1.8), Trump 47.3%.
- 270towin.com: Harris 49.2% (+4), Trump 45.2%.
As we've noted before, those averages are different because each site (and others) has its own methodology for which polls they aggregate and over what period of time. But they're a good way of looking at which way the polling of voters is trending in a given state or nationally (depending, of course, on just how much polling has been done and who is doing it).
What we're seeing since the debate is that Harris has picked up some support nationwide, as well as in Michigan and Pennsylvania. If her leads in those states and Wisconsin and Nevada were to hold and she won them in November — even if she lost in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina — it would be enough to win the 270 Electoral College votes needed to be elected president, all else remaining as it did in 2020.
On the other hand, if Trump were to win in the swing states where he is currently leading and pick up either Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin alone (Nevada wouldn't be enough by its own), he would win. So, as we said, it remains very close.
Here's what the polling averages look like in all those other states as of Thursday, as well as the number of electoral votes each has and how each voted four years ago:
Pennsylvania (19 EC votes, 2020 result: Biden 50%-48.8% +1.2)
- FiveThirtyEight.com: Harris 48.3% (+1.2), Trump 47%.
- RealClearPolitics.com: Harris 48.3% (+0.8), Trump 47.5%.
- 270towin.com: Harris 48.5% (+1.2), Trump 47.3%.
Wisconsin (10 EC votes, 2020 result: Biden 49.6%-48.9% +0.7)
- FiveThirtyEight.com: Harris 48.8% (+2.1), Trump 46.6%.
- RealClearPolitics.com: Harris 49% (+0.7), Trump 48.3%.
- 270towin.com: Harris 49.4% (+2.1), Trump 47.3%.
Arizona (11 EC votes, 2020 result: Biden 49.4%-49.1% +0.3)
- FiveThirtyEight.com: Trump 47.9% (+0.9), Harris 47%.
- RealClearPolitics.com: Trump 48.8% (+1.6), Harris 47.2%.
- 270towin.com: Trump 48.6% (+1.2), Harris 47.4%.
Nevada (6 EC votes, 2020 result: Biden 50.1%-47.7% +2.4)
- FiveThirtyEight.com: Harris 47.5% (+0.6), Trump 46.9%.
- RealClearPolitics.com: Harris 47.2% (+0.4), Trump 46.8%.
- 270towin.com: Harris 47.4% (+1.2), Trump 46.2%.
North Carolina (16 EC votes, 2020 result: Trump 50%-48.7% +1.3)
- FiveThirtyEight.com: Trump 47.8% (+0.4) Harris 47.4%.
- RealClearPolitics.com: Trump 47.8% (+0.6), Harris 47.2%.
- 270towin.com: Trump 47.9% (+0.8), Harris 47.1%.
Georgia (16 EC votes, 2020 result: Biden 49.5%-49.2% +0.3)
- FiveThirtyEight.com: Trump 48.4% (+1.2), Harris 47.2%.
- RealClearPolitics.com: Trump 48.9% (+2.2), Harris 46.7%.
- 270towin.com: Trump 49.3% (+1.9), Harris 47.4%.
Contact Todd Spangler: tspangler@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter@tsspangler.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Polls show Harris with narrow lead over Trump in Michigan. It's still a virtual toss-up.
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