Tigers vs. Astros scouting, pick for AL wild-card series in MLB playoffs

No. 6 seed Detroit Tigers (86-76) at No. 3 Houston Astros (88-73)

The managers: Tigers — A.J. Hinch (877-793 career; 307-341 with Tigers; 28-22 in postseason); Astros — Joe Espada (88-73 career and with Astros; 0-0 in postseason).

Regular-season series: Astros, 4-2.

Top three players: Tigers — Tarik Skubal (LHP), Riley Greene (OF), Kerry Carpenter (OF); Astros — Kyle Tucker (OF), Yordan Alvarez (DH), Alex Bregman (3B)

Key matchups

Free Press sports writer Evan Petzold breaks down the best-of-three 2024 American League wild-card series between the Detroit Tigers and Houston Astros, running Tuesday-Thursday at Minute Maid Park in Houston.

The lefties: Tarik Skubal vs. Framber Valdez

There's nothing more important than the result of Game 1.

It's left-hander Tarik Skubal vs. left-hander Framber Valdez .

The winner of Game 1 has won MLB's best-of-three series 76% of the time, according to MLB.com's senior data architect Tom Tango , but that research doesn't account for the three-game home-field advantage since 2022, which benefits the Astros this season. Understanding the importance of Game 1, the Tigers have the advantage because Skubal is MLB's best pitcher, leading the AL in wins, ERA and strikeouts.

But the difference between the two isn't that great — Skubal had a 2.39 ERA and Valdez had a 2.91 ERA in the regular season. Also, the Tigers won in 21 of Skubal's 31 starts while the Astros won in 19 of Valdez's 28 starts. On top of that, the Astros' offense is stronger than the Tigers' offense. And Skubal doesn't have any postseason experience, whereas Valdez has a 4.24 ERA across 80⅔ innings in 16 playoff games.

Maybe the Game 1 pitching matchup is a complete toss-up, even though Skubal is a better pitcher than Valdez. Either way, Skubal needs to be at his best for the Tigers to put the odds in their favor.

The Tigers can't afford to lose Game 1.

DH: Does Yordan Alvarez play?

The Astros have four superstars on offense: outfielder Kyle Tucker , designated hitter Yordan Alvarez , third baseman Alex Bregman and second baseman Jose Altuve . But the Astros haven't determined if Alvarez will be healthy enough to compete in the wild-card series.

Alvarez has been out since Sept. 22 with a right knee sprain.

The three-time All-Star — in five full seasons — hit .308 with 35 home runs in 147 games this year. His batting average ranked fourth among AL players, behind only Bobby Witt Jr. (.322), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (.323) and Aaron Judge (.308).

Guess who ranked fifth?

Astros catcher Yainer Diaz , at .299.

The Astros and Tigers will submit their wild-card rosters by 11 a.m. Tuesday. As of Sunday evening, the Astros couldn't guarantee Alvarez would be on the roster — but if he is available, everything changes.

The bullpen: Will Tigers unknowns stay hot?

The Tigers rank first in MLB with a 2.81 ERA since the July 30 trade deadline, when they traded starter Jack Flaherty (to the Los Angeles Dodgers) and reliever Andrew Chafin (to the Texas Rangers). Somehow, the Tigers had the best results of any pitching staff in baseball while operating with two full-time starters — Skubal and Keider Montero — and a host of openers and bulk relievers.

The bullpen covered an MLB-leading 281⅔ innings in 52 games following the trade deadline, with an MLB-leading 2.65 ERA. The underlying metrics — such as the .240 batting average on balls in play, significantly lower than the .293 league average — suggested the relievers were performing better than they should have been, but there's no denying their success.

Here's who deserves credit: Tyler Holton , Sean Guenther , Jason Foley , Beau Brieske , Brenan Hanifee , Will Vest and Brant Hurter . All seven posted sub-3.00 ERAs in non-starter roles since the trade deadline.

Hinch is masterful at managing the bullpen to exploit matchup advantages, but it'll be interesting to see if Guenther, Hanifee and Hurter — who all started the season in the minors — maintain their unexpected dominance in the biggest moments on the biggest stage.

Prediction

Only one player on the Tigers' expected wild-card roster — Matt Vierling — has postseason experience. The Astros, though, have been to the postseason eight years in a row with many of the same players, reaching the ALCS seven straight years and the World Series four times in all.

If experience matters, the Astros hold a massive advantage over the Tigers, even though the Tigers come into the series as one of the hottest teams in baseball, winning 31 of their final 44 games. But don't forget that the Astros posted the best record among all AL teams since April 27, at 81-54. So how does this series go? The Tigers won't stop believing, but losing Game 1 with their ace on the mound will crush their vibes. Don't worry, the Tigers will be back in the playoffs for years to come. The pick: Astros, 2-0.

Contact Evan Petzold at epetzold@freepress.com or follow him @EvanPetzold .

Listen to our weekly Tigers show "Days of Roar" every Monday afternoon on demand at freep.com, Apple , Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts. And catch all of our podcasts and daily voice briefing at freep.com/podcasts .

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Tigers vs. Astros scouting, pick for AL wild-card series in MLB playoffs