Detroit Tigers Newsletter: Justin Verlander not the series-breaker for Houston Astros

You probably had some plans this week.

The Detroit Tigers did, at least a few weeks ago.

As ace Tarik Skubal told the Freep’s Evan Petzold , "I bet a decent group of guys were planning on going to Monday Night Football for the Lions. I bet a bunch of guys were planning on doing that. Things have changed.”

Have they ever.

Of course, most Detroiters planning on watching the Lions on Monday night can still do that. This is still a burgeoning football town, after all.

But on Tuesday?

Come Tuesday, the Tigers face the AL West-champion Astros for a best-of-three AL wild-card series (all in Houston).

And, on Tuesday, for the first time in a decade, Detroit becomes an October baseball town again, as the Freep’s Mitch Albom points out.

Hello, and welcome to the Orange October Newsletter.

That switchover requires some changing of plans — even those not Honolulu Blue-related, as the Freep’s Jeff Seidel discovered at Comerica Park over the weekend. Jackson Jobe had to get a haircut. Spencer Torkelson had to find a dog-sitter .

And, of course, Tigers fans need to do some hard-core cramming on their first playoff opponent since 2014, even though the series won’t go past Thursday, no matter what.

The good news: Our Man Petzold boiled down the showdown to three key matchups before he made his pick (but we’re not going to spoil it for you here).

We here at the Newsletter aren’t nearly as concise, as you’ve probably noticed.

And so, even though the various position groups don’t actually face each other, let’s break down who has the edge at each spot, before they all take the field Tuesday and prove us wrong. (Especially since Tuesday’s lefty-vs.-lefty pitching matchup will encourage both managers to shuffle their lineups in favor of platoon advantages.)

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Tigers vs. Astros playoffs scouting report

*Tigers player listed first

C: Jake Rogers vs. Yainer Diaz

The buzz: It’s a homecoming for Rogers — both as a native Texan and a 2016 Astros draft pick ( who was he traded for, again? ) — a year after his breakout season (21 homers in 2023, 10 in 2024). But Diaz hit .299 (fifth in the AL) with 16 homers overall this year, and .301 with 11 homers in 102 games. Edge: Astros.

1B: Spencer Torkelson vs. Jon Singleton

The buzz: A young slugger handed the job at first, only to crash in his rookie season? Sorry, Tork, but Singleton was humming that tune back in 2014. After a long journey back to the majors, the now-32-year-old posted a career-best .707 OPS in 119 games with the Astros. Tork’s journey, meanwhile — from Detroit to Toledo to Detroit to Toledo … well, you get it — has resulted in a .781 OPS in the 38 games since his return from Triple-A on Aug. 17 , albeit with 49 strikeouts in 133 at-bats. Edge: Tigers.

2B: Colt Keith vs. Jose Altuve

The buzz: Altuve’s slash line of .295/350/.439 is easily his worst in a full season in more than a decade (.283/.316/.363 in 2013) — when he was 23. Keith, 23, has had some huge games, but the overall line — .260/.309/.380 — is buoyed by an incredible July (1.048 OPS) and some growing pains in the two months since (44 strikeouts, 10 walks in 194 plate appearances in August and September). Edge: Astros.

3B: Matt Vierling vs. Alex Bregman

The buzz: Bregman, 30, hasn’t produced another season like his 2019, when he posted a 1.015 OPS in 156 games en route to a runner-up finish in the AL MVP vote, and this season’s .768 OPS is the worst of the impending free agent’s career. That’s still better than Vierling’s overall .735 OPS — with the caveat he has an .824 OPS, with eight of his 16 homers, in his 48 games at third base this year. Edge: Astros.

SS: Trey Sweeney vs. Jeremy Peña

The buzz: Peña has regressed from his ALCS and World Series MVP rookie season in 2022 (when he had 22 homers and a Gold Glove), but he’s still a league-average hitter and the ninth-best SS by Fangraphs’ Defensive Runs Saved. Sweeney … isn’t either of those things, 36 games into his big-league career. But he has had a lot more success hitting on the road, with a .917 OPS in 17 games away from Comerica Park (compared to .387 in 19 home games). Edge: Astros.

LF: Riley Greene vs. Mauricio Dubón

The buzz: The 30-year-old Dubón has played at least 10 games at a remarkable six different positions (1B, 2B, 3B, LF, CF, RF) this season (plus five more games at SS), but left field was the most frequent, with a .279/.316/.342 slash line at the position. Jason Heyward, 35, has an .877 OPS since taking over in left for the past two weeks. Greene is an All-Star this season and, when healthy (a big when over his three seasons), drives the Tigers offense . Edge: Tigers.

CF: Parker Meadows vs. Jake Meyers

The buzz: Consider this a matchup of defensive wizards, with Meyers ranking second among AL center fielders in Defensive Runs Saved (6) in 1,144 innings, and Meadows at five DRS in just 655 innings. Meadows has an .840 OPS since returning from the IL on Aug. 3. Meyers? .646 in 516 PAs this season. Edge: Tigers.

INSIDER: Detroit Tigers roster prediction for wild-card series

RF: Wenceel Pérez vs. Kyle Tucker

The buzz: A shin issue cost Tucker 80 games this season. Since his return from the IL on Sept. 6, though, the 27-year-old has a .365/.453/.587 slash line over 18 games. Pérez has cooled off significantly since his March and April (with a 1.003 OPS), but his September OPS of .676 was his highest since the opening month. Bonus points for breaking up the Astros’ combined no-hitter with two outs in the seventh inning the last time these teams met, in mid-June. Edge: Astros.

DH: Kerry Carpenter vs. Yordan Alvarez

The buzz: Consider this the biggest wild card in this wild-card series, as Alvarez (and his .958 OPS over the past four seasons) hasn’t played since last Sunday when he hurt his knee sliding into second. The Astros downplayed his availability for the series , which would be a major hit to their offense. Carpenter looks fully healthy since his return from the IL on Aug. 13, with a .954 OPS and 10 homers in 37 games. Edge: Push (if Alvarez plays).

Bench

The buzz: Just two teams (the Red Sox and Twins) got more plate appearances from subs than the Tigers’ 292. But those players’ .664 OPS was merely fourth-best in the AL — not every platoon move worked. The Astros, meanwhile, only got 207 PAs from their subs, but produced a .741 OPS that was second in the AL, led by Dubón’s .991 OPS in 31 PAs off the bench. Edge: Astros.

Rotation: Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown and Yusei Kikuchi vs. Tarik Skubal, TBD and TBD.

The buzz: Yes, we’re leaving Justin Verlander out of the hypothetical postseason rotation — Valdez is the announced Game 1 starter, Brown (out of St. Clair Shores Lakeview and Wayne State) has a 2.51 ERA in 25 games since adding a sinker to his repertoire May 5 and Kikuchi has a 2.70 ERA in 10 starts since joining the Astros at the trade deadline. Verlander has an 8.10 ERA in seven starts since coming off the IL in late August. (We’re also leaving out Ronel Blanco, who threw a no-hitter in April. Tough room.) As for the Tigers … we know Skubal is starting Game 1. And then? Well, why change what has worked so well with the opener/bulk-reliver plan so far ? Tigers starters’ ERA since the trade deadline is the second-best in the majors, at 3.05 … behind only Astros starters (3.04). Edge: Astros.

Bullpen

The buzz: Likewise, the Tigers’ relief ERA of 2.65 since the deadline, despite covering nearly 60 more innings than the next-most-worked squad (the White Sox, of course), is No. 1 in baseball. The Astros’ 3.53 ERA over that span is 10 ^th , led by closer Josh Hader (who gave up one earned run in all of August) and sneaky-good righty Kaleb Ort, a Grand Rapids native. Edge: Tigers.

Manager: A.J. Hinch vs. Joe Espada

The buzz: This is Espada’s first season as a manager, but he spent 14 years as a big-league coach — including two seasons as Hinch’s bench coach in Houston — before getting tabbed as Dusty Baker’s replacement. (Espada is also in-laws with Orioles manager Brandon Hyde — this is what happens when everyone hires ex-Astros.) Hinch, of course, has waved whatever magic wand (according to Our Man Seidel ), or pulled whatever string — insert your own managerial metaphor here — possible to get the majors’ youngest team into the playoffs well ahead of schedule ( no matter what Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris told Our Man Petzold on Friday ). Heck, Hinch even got the Freep’s Carlos Monarrez to come around . Edge: Tigers.

JEFF SEIDEL: 10 ways A.J. Hinch has pulled brilliance out of these amazing Tigers

The Tigers’ take

But don’t take our (1,200) words for it (so far) — ask the Tigers themselves how far they think they’ll go. Perhaps unsurprisingly, they’re confident in their chances , as Our Man Petzold found out in the clubhouse Friday night. Then again, Skubal laid out the best reason to dream big: “"I think when you put something like that out there, it holds you accountable. … You shoot for the stars, and whatever happens, happens.”

The exec’s take

Scott Harris was a bit more circumspect Friday, telling Our Man Seidel, “I hope it’s not over. I hope we keep it going.” Then again, Harris already did the hard part of putting together a playoff team, as Seidel noted in his review of Harris’ performance — these Tigers got so much younger and so much better as the season went along.

3 to watch

SEAN GUENTHER: The third waiver claim of Harris’ tenure is paying off big-time in the big leagues .

JACKSON JOBE: How the majors’ top pitching prospect went from the taxi squad to postseason baseball .

THAYRON LIRANZO: The big return in the Jack Flaherty trade will be playing in October, too — in the Arizona Fall League .

Happy birthday, Jace Jung!

Jung turns 24 on Friday. The franchise’s 2022 first-round pick made it to the majors for 34 games this season, with an underwhelming .665 OPS offset, somewhat, by his .362 on-base percentage — he drew 15 walks in just 94 plate appearances. Will Jung spend his birthday week with the Tigers in the postseason? Our Man Petzold broke down the roster choices facing the Tigers, and it doesn’t look good for the Texas native .

Other Tigers birthdays this week: Carlos Guillén (49 on Monday), José Lima (would have been 52 on Monday; died in 2010), Robbie Ray (33 on Tuesday), Alex Lange (29 on Wednesday), Eric Munson (47 on Thursday), Victor Reyes (30 on Friday), Rod Allen (65 on Friday) and Joey Wentz (27 on Saturday).

Postseasons past

While we’re remembering the past, it’s a good time to look back on the Tigers’ 16 previous playoff appearances, and the Freep’s Jared Ramsey did, researching the squads that played from the World Series in 1907 to the ALDS in 2014 .

Mark your calendar

OK, so you know the Tigers are hitting the road this week. If Houston is a bit of a commute for you to watch with a few thousands of your fellow fans, the Tigers have you covered; they’re hosting a watch party at Comerica Park for Tuesday’s Game 1, which starts at 2:32 p.m., with tickets at just $5 (with some proceeds going to charity).

TL;DR

So … who’s gonna win the Tigers’ wild-card series?

Going by our position breakdowns, the Astros come out ahead, 7-5 (with one tie). But that’s math (sort of), and we did enough of that last week . Alternately, we could lean on the intangibles either way: Does the Tigers’ 31-13 record to close the regular season — basically two straight months of playoff games — mean more than their 2-4 showing in six games against the Astros in the first half of the year? Do the Astros’ seven straight ALCS appearances — with a 59-38 (.608) record in the postseason over that span — mean more than their 14-11 record in September? In the end, the Astros’ edge in the rotation looks like just enough to send them on to face Cleveland in the ALDS and send the Tigers home with a season to grow on. The pick: Astros, 2-1.

Contact Ryan Ford at rford@freepress.com . Follow him on X (which used to be Twitter, y’know?) @theford .

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Detroit Tigers Newsletter: Justin Verlander not the series-breaker for Houston Astros