There's no mystery why Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, and Republican former President Donald Trump will both be in Michigan for multiple events on Friday .
The polls suggest the Nov. 5 election a little over two weeks away is either's to win, with Michigan and a handful of other swing states so close they are not just within the margin of error but within tenths of a percentage point. Time is running out for either to gain any significant advantage with absentee ballots already circulating and early voting about to get underway in Michigan.
>> Watch live Friday: Kamala Harris rallies in Michigan | Trump events in Oakland County, Detroit
The fact is that while Harris is maintaining a lead in the national polls of about 2 percentage points , that is probably not enough to push her over the top in the Electoral College which decides the result, since the swing states that will determine that outcome — Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia — are generally more Republican-leaning than the U.S. population as a whole.
And since the last time the Free Press looked at polling averages aggregated by FiveThirtyEight.com , RealClearPolitics.com and 270towin.com in late September, Harris' numbers have gotten somewhat worse while those for Trump have improved slightly. Nationally, those averages have moved by only about half a percentage point in Trump's direction but he has seen a bit more improvement in the swing states.
Take Michigan, for example.
On Sept. 26, those three political websites had Harris ahead in the state by anywhere from 1.8% (RealClearPolitics.com) to 4% (270towin.com). Here's where those polling averages stood at midafternoon Thursday (and note that sometimes the percentage-point spread doesn't match the poll figures because of rounding done by those websites):
- FiveThirtyEight.com: Harris 47.7% (+0.6), Trump 47.1%.
- RealClearPolitics.com: Trump 48.3% (+1), Harris 47.3%.
- 270towin.com: Trump 47.6% (tie), Harris 47.6%.
That's about as narrow as a race can get and it suggests Trump has as good a chance of winning Michigan, as he did by about two-tenths of a percentage point over Hillary Clinton in 2016, as Harris at this point. And that's crucial. While Michigan isn't the biggest player in the Electoral College among swing states (that would be Pennsylvania with 19 EC votes, and Georgia and North Carolina with 16 apiece), it's hard to see Harris winning without Michigan's 15 Electoral College votes (all of which are awarded to whomever wins the state). Michigan is considered the most Democratic-leaning of all the swing states and Democratic President Joe Biden beat Trump in the state in 2020 by about 3 percentage points or more than 154,000 votes .
What follows is an updated look at where the polling averages stand in all the other swing states. You can see for yourself how it has tightened up pretty much everywhere and that it looks like the race between Harris and Trump will come down to the wire, with the possibility of late-counted absentee ballots, lawsuits and recounts potentially playing a role in determining the outcome.
Just a note about the averages, first. As we've said before, they are different because each site (and others) has its own methodology for which polls they aggregate and over what period of time. But taken together, they strongly suggest the direction in which polling of voters is trending in a given state or nationally (depending, of course, on just how much polling has been done and who is doing it).
One other note, if Harris were to win the "blue wall" states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin but lose the other swing states (and all else remaining constant to the 2020 election), she would get the 270 Electoral College votes she needs to win. Conversely, if Trump were to win Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina — three traditionally Republican states despite his losses in Arizona and Georgia four years ago — he would win if could pick up any one of the blue wall states. (Nevada wouldn't be necessary to win.)
Here's what the polling averages looked like in all those other states as of Thursday, as well as the number of electoral votes each has and how each voted four years ago:
Pennsylvania (19 EC votes, 2020 result: Biden 50%-48.8% +1.2)
- FiveThirtyEight.com: Harris 48% (+0.4), Trump 47.5%.
- RealClearPolitics.com: Trump 47.9% (+0.5), Harris 47.4%.
- 270towin.com: Harris 47.9% (+0.3), Trump 47.6%.
Wisconsin (10 EC votes, 2020 result: Biden 49.6%-48.9% +0.7)
- FiveThirtyEight.com: Harris 47.9% (+0.3), Trump 47.6%.
- RealClearPolitics.com: Harris 48.3% (+0.3), Trump 48%.
- 270towin.com: Trump 48.4% (+0.6), Harris 47.8%.
Arizona (11 EC votes, 2020 result: Biden 49.4%-49.1% +0.3)
- FiveThirtyEight.com: Trump 48.4% (+1.6), Harris 46.8%.
- RealClearPolitics.com: Trump 48.4% (+1.1), Harris 47.3%.
- 270towin.com: Trump 48.7% (+1.5), Harris 47.2%.
Nevada (6 EC votes, 2020 result: Biden 50.1%-47.7% +2.4)
- FiveThirtyEight.com: Harris 47.7% (+0.7), Trump 47%.
- RealClearPolitics.com: Trump 47.7% (+0.5), Harris 47.2%.
- 270towin.com: Trump 46.8% (tie), Harris 46.8%.
North Carolina (16 EC votes, 2020 result: Trump 50%-48.7% +1.3)
- FiveThirtyEight.com: Trump 48.1% (+0.7), Harris 47.4%.
- RealClearPolitics.com: Trump 48.7% (+1.2), Harris 47.5%.
- 270towin.com: Trump 47.9% (+0.5), Harris 47.4%.
Georgia (16 EC votes, 2020 result: Biden 49.5%-49.2% +0.3)
- FiveThirtyEight.com: Trump 48.8% (+1.8), Harris 46.9%.
- RealClearPolitics.com: Trump 48.7% (+0.9), Harris 47.8%.
- 270towin.com: Trump 49% (+1.3), Harris 47.7%.
When is the election?
Election Day is Nov. 5, and polls in Michigan are open from 7 a.m.-8 p.m.
Looking for more on Michigan’s elections this year? Check out our voter guide , subscribe to our elections newsletter and always feel free to share your thoughts in a letter to the editor .
Contact Todd Spangler: tspangler@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter@tsspangler.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Polls suggest Trump has closed gap on Harris in Michigan and other key swing states
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