What happens in Fayetteville when the Cape Fear River crests?

Around here, the big flood risks from storms like Debby come from the many creeks and streams in low-lying areas.

But always in the background is the thankfully rare occurrence that the Cape Fear River — the mother of all waterways in our region — will overflow its banks when it crests. That happened in 1945, as river water devastated part of Fayetteville’s downtown , with water lapping at the traffic circle at the Market House.

Tropical Storm Debby is bringing lots of rain, and the river may crest above 53.6 feet on Saturday, according to the National Water Prediction Service on Thursday afternoon.

We have had close calls before, notably during Hurricane Matthew in 2016 and Hurricane Florence, which in 2018, became the biggest rain event in state history.

During both storms, curious storm-watchers hung out on the Rowan Street bridge to watch the Cape Fear creep up the pylons to levels most people had not seen in their lifetimes.

Cumberland County prepares for rising Cape Fear

The Cape Fear River and the Little River near Spring Lake were both expected to “reach high flood levels,” according to a news release from Cumberland County Emergency Services.

The county advised residents near potential flood zones to protect their valuables and be prepared in case they have to evacuate.

County spokesperson Diane B. Rice, contacted via email, said Emergency Services had been working alongside municipal and state partners to help the community during Tropical Storm Debby.

“Swift water response teams and County Emergency Services have been tracking active incidents and responding, along with the appropriate public safety teams, as needed,” she said.

The county is actively updating this page with information, links to various resources and damage assessment forms.

Historic crests for the Cape Fear River

The record crest for the Cape Fear River remains the 1945 mark, which was 68.9 feet, according to available records.

The river during Hurricane Matthew hit 58.9 feet. During Florence, it rose to 61.5 feet. Signs at the Public Works Commission's P.O. Hoffer Water Treatment facility note those two high-water marks, and if you look closely you can see where the building is still stained from the river water.

When is the Cape Fear River considered in flood stage?

As of 5 p.m. Thursday, the Cape Fear River is measured at 25.53 feet, according to the National Water Prediction Service website, administered by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Weather and municipal officials start expressing concern when the river gets to 35 feet or above.

Minor flooding can be expected when it reaches that height, the Prediction Service states. The Prediction Service also states that 48 feet is considered moderate flooding and 58 feet is considered major flooding.

In a section on “flood impacts” from the river, it notes that at 69 feet — i.e., about where the 1945 flood stage fell — the city begins to flood and “up to one hundred and fifty homes would be threatened. At this stage, the river widens to a mile or more in some places.”

At 72 feet: “The river will spread to a width of up to 2 miles, with several thousand structures threatened.”

When was the last time the Cape Fear rose toward flood stage?

Perhaps surprisingly, it was in late December of 2023 — winter time — when local officials put out a flood warning about the Cape Fear rising at the William O. Huske Lock and Dam No. 3. Two days after Christmas, the river’s flood stage was 36.2 feet, according to the National Weather Service, and it was predicted to rise to 46.2 feet.

A Cumberland County news release provided through social media and traditional media the kinds of tips and alerts that would not have been available to people in 1945, encouraging people to sign up for Cumberland Alerts and the National Weather Service (and click on the map for Cumberland.)

The release also provided advice that is good for all floods, all seasons.

“Emergency Services reminds residents to ‘turn around, don’t drown’ when encountering flooded roads.

Fayetteville looking at anti-flood projects

The Fayetteville City Council approved plans last September to make the city more flood-proof, but the price tag is a doozy. City staff estimated $580.6 million would be needed for anti-flooding projects that would be designed to reduce the depth, duration and extension of floods from the Cape Fear and major streams, like Blounts Creek, which jumped its banks during Matthew and flooded streets, homes and businesses.

Two watershed areas near the Cape Fear River would involve 39 projects and cost $110 million.  The city was looking to land federal grant money to help pay for the extensive list of more than 100 anti-flooding projects.

These are not immediate fixes, as the first of the anti-flooding projects is not expected to wrap until 2027.

Myron B. Pitts can be reached at mpitts@fayobserver.com.

This article originally appeared on The Fayetteville Observer: What happens in Fayetteville when the Cape Fear River crests?