A tropical depression could form by early next week as a disturbance moves toward the Caribbean Sea, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
It's one of three disturbances now being tracked by the National Hurricane Center, including a new system in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico that's expected to meander along the coast through much of the week. Regardless of development, heavy rain could bringing flash floods over the Labor Day weekend across portions of coastal Louisiana and the upper Texas coast.
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said during a telephone interview the disturbance could become a tropical storm sometime between Sept. 1-3, "around the time it nears the Lesser Antilles. Residents there can expect downpours and squally, windy weather around the (Labor Day) holiday."
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Could it affect Florida, either directly or indirectly, as we near the peak of hurricane season in September? At this point, anything is possible but conditions can change rapidly and the system is still quite a distance away.
Forecasters have been warning tropical activity is expected to increase in September as we near the peak of hurricane season on Sept. 10. The most active period of the Atlantic hurricane season runs from mid-August through mid-October, and some forecasters have warned tropical activity could extend well into November.
August, a month when tropical cyclone activity begins to pick up, has been fairly quiet , prompting AccuWeather forecasters to revise — sort of — earlier predictions for the number of named storms this season.
“AccuWeather hurricane experts now assess that 20-23 named storms are most likely," said AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter.
Before you get too excited about the slightly lower numbers, Porter added, “While a total of 20-23 named storms is most likely, we cannot yet rule out 24 or 25 storms" that have been predicted previously.
“The reason for this assessment is the long lull that has been experienced in recent weeks where there have been no named storms during what is typically a very active time of the hurricane season.”
Could tropical wave become Hurricane Francine?
"If it finds a favorable pocket in the Caribbean, it could become a hurricane. That's on the table," DaSilva said.
"What's certain is there is a moderate chance of a tropical depression or tropical storm developing between Sept. 1-3, around the time it nears the Lesser Antilles."
Also certain is that waters in the Caribbean are very warm, which provide fuel for strengthening.
By mid to late next week, it should be in the central Caribbean. At that point, there are several possibilities for where the disturbance could go and how strong it could become, DaSilva said. Among the possibilities are:
- "Around Sept. 7, it could turn north, moving over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola and then the Bahamas off the Southeast coast of the U.S.
- "If it moves farther west in Caribbean, it could be drawn into the Florida Peninsula. Whether it moves toward Florida's east or west coast is too early to tell yet.
- "There's also a chance it moves north even earlier and just hooks out to sea, with no direct impact to the U.S. or Florida.
- "What it probably won't do is continue to move west toward Mexico."
"Bottom line is there a chance it could impact Florida and the U.S. by next weekend (Sept. 7-8) so it's definitely something to watch closely," DaSilva said.
The next named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be Francine.
Florida forecast: Could tropical activity affect your Labor Day plans?
A disturbance in the eastern Atlantic that appeared on the National Hurricane Center's tropical outlook map Tuesday is expected to consolidate and could become a tropical depression or tropical storm over the Labor Day weekend as it approaches the Lesser Antilles, DaSilva said.
➤ Labor Day weather forecast
Don't expect any impacts to Florida or the U.S. over the Labor Day weekend, DaSilva said.
At the earliest, Florida or the U.S. could feel impacts from the system the following weekend, around Sept. 7 or so. But that's a very, very early prediction and a lot can change before then.
"It's still very far from potential U.S. impacts as it moves across the Atlantic," DaSilva said.
Watch out for rapid intensification of tropical storms and hurricanes
"I'm still very concerned over rapid intensification. We saw it with Beryl. Now, during the peak of season, if anything gets into Gulf (of Mexico) I would be very nervous and concerned," DaSilva said.
"I've never seen the Gulf this warm before. If something gets into the Gulf, it can't get out until it hits land."
Water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are in the mid to upper 80s. A temperature of 80 degrees is the minimum needed for tropical cyclones, providing plenty of energy for storms to form and quickly strengthen, DaSilva said.
Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 2 p.m. Aug. 30:
What is out there and how likely are they to strengthen?
The National Hurricane Center was monitoring three tropical disturbances in the Atlantic basin, according to the 2 p.m. advisory. The Atlantic basin consists of the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical disturbance 1: A surface trough of low pressure over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms along and just offshore the coasts of Texas and Louisiana.
This system is expected to meander near the coast through much of next week, and some slow development is possible if it remains offshore.
Regardless of development, heavy rains could cause some flash flooding across portions of coastal Louisiana and the upper Texas coast during the next few days.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 10 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: low, 20 percent.
Tropical disturbance 2: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic remain disorganized.
Gradual development of this system is possible during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form some time next week while it moves westward, reaching the Lesser Antilles on Monday and continuing across the Caribbean Sea through the middle to latter part of the week.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: medium, 40 percent.
Disturbance 3: Another tropical wave between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands is producing minimal shower and thunderstorm activity.
Some slow development of this system is possible through late next week while it moves slowly to the west-northwest over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: low, 20 percent.
What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on a tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until a there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
"If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said.
Who is likely to be impacted?
It's too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to Florida or the U.S. from the two disturbances.
➤ Excessive rainfall forecast
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared. That advice is particularly important for what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.
Need hurricane supplies? Florida tax holiday continues until Sept. 6
The second and final two-week period to save on hurricane supplies started Aug. 24 and runs through Sept. 6.
With the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season not only expected to busy — some predict more than double the average of 14 named storms — but also to last well into November , now it the time to purchase supplies. Once a storm approaches, a run on stores begins and shelves are stripped bare of essentials.
What hurricane supplies are tax free in Florida?
- A portable generator used to provide light or communications or preserve food in the event of a power outage with a sales price of $3,000 or less.
- A tarpaulin or other flexible waterproof sheeting with a sales price of $100 or less.
- An item normally sold as, or generally advertised as, a ground anchor system or tie-down kitwith a sales price of $100 or less.
- A smoke detector or smoke alarm with a sales price of $70 or less.
- A fire extinguisher with a sales price of $70 or less.
- A carbon monoxide detector with a sales price of $70 or less.
- A nonelectric food storage cooler with a sales price of $60 or less.
- A portable power bank with a sales price of $60 or less.
- A gas or diesel fuel tank with a sales price of $50 or less.
- A portable self-powered radio, two-way radio, or weather-band radio with a sales price of$50 or less.
- A package of AA-cell, AAA-cell, C-cell, D-cell, 6-volt, or 9-volt batteries, excluding automobileand boat batteries, with a sales price of $50 or less.
- A portable self-powered light source (powered by battery, solar, hand-crank, or gas) with asales price of $40 or less.
- Flashlights
- Reusable ice (ice packs) with a sales price of $20 or less.
- Lanterns
- Candles
➤ Do you need a generator? With active hurricane season ahead, do you need a generator in Florida? Here's how to decide
➤ How to prepare for hurricane season: On a budget? Here are 5 cheap ways to prepare your home for Florida's hurricane season
Expect to see new 'cone of concern' with next named storm, if it nears Florida, US
The National Hurricane Center launched its new "cone of concern " for Hurricane Ernesto on Aug. 14.
Ernesto stayed well away from Florida and the U.S., so residents didn't see many differences between the original and new cone. One of the biggest differences between the two is that the new cone will show wind warnings issued for interior counties, not just those on the coast.
Both cones will be visible on the Hurricane Center's website. Find the new cone by going to the graphics page for the storm , then click on "New Experimental Cone," which will be highlighted in red.
Differences you'll see:
- Watches and warnings for inland counties, not just coastal areas.
- White transparent shading for the entire five-day forecast, instead of white stippling (dots) for the four- and five-day forecast.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
National Hurricane Center map: What are forecasters watching now?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
Excessive rainfall forecast
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This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: New tropical disturbance pops up in Gulf of Mexico. NHC tracking 3 systems. Where are they going?
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