Jacksonville Jaguars season predictions: How many wins for Trevor Lawrence team in 2024

The Jacksonville Jaguars are set to get off to the races Sunday when they take on the Miami Dolphins on the road to open the 2024 season.

There's no question Jacksonville enters this year at an inflection point under head coach Doug Pederson. Last season's late collapse shouldn't be ignored. The Jaguars began the year 8-3 before finishing the season with a lackluster 9-8 record that didn't demonstrate just how bad it got down the 1-5 stretch.

Still, the team's 2022 playoff push and win during the 2022 campaign remain at the forefront of everyone's mind, giving optimism for a return to what looked like a stellar 16-game stretch by the team to end the 2022 season and start the 2024 campaign.

Who's been better?: Comparing Jaguars' Trevor Lawrence and Dolphins' Tua Tagovailoa

None of that matters, though, and the Jaguars, along with the rest of the NFL, are fully reset at 0-0 with equal shots of making the Super Bowl.

Will they? We take a shot at predicting the team's final regular season record going game-by-game.

To check out our season prediction when the schedule was released, click here .

Week 1: Jaguars at Miami Dolphins

Prediction: Jaguars 31, Dolphins 30

Thoughts: The final score won't look like that, but the 3.5-point line the Dolphins hold over the Jaguars in various betting markets makes sense. Similar to Jacksonville, Miami hasn't unleashed the team's full potential under head coach Mike McDaniel. They similarly have offensive line issues which quarterback Tua Tagovailoa jokingly said "Brother, I get the ball out fast, so I am confident with anybody we’ve got up there," when asked about it.

That's a red flag. The Dolphins could have protection issues, especially to start the year. That'll give Jacksonville the advantage offensively. Defensively, it may be another question with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle expected to light up the scoreboard early and often.

Record: 1-0

Week 2: Jaguars vs. Cleveland Browns

Prediction: Browns 17, Jaguars 14

Thoughts: This'll be the team's home opener after a win in South Florida. That sets Jacksonville up for a potential spoiler game and would be just the second win at home in September under Pederson's reign (1-2).

It's tough to parse through what the Browns might look like. Will Deshaun Watson ever return to his Houston Texans form? If he does, even at 75%, that'll spell trouble for Jacksonville with Cleveland's defense as one of the best in the league.

It'll be a slugfest and I expect Jacksonville to lose a close one here after further reconsideration.

Record: 1-1

Week 3: Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (Monday Night Football)

Prediction: Jaguars 28, Bills 20

Thoughts: Josh Allen has never defeated Josh Hines-Allen or any variant.

Record: 2-1

Week 4: Jaguars at Houston Texans

Prediction: Texans 24, Jaguars 20

Thoughts: The gauntlet of a four-game starting schedule ends with the Texans (though, the Colts in Week 5 might be a spoiler) and the Jaguars on the road against a fired-up Houston team screams a loss.

Jacksonville will be coming off of a short week after playing on Monday Night Football. A good win against the Bills could give them momentum for the rest of the slate, but ultimately Houston takes this one.

Record: 2-2

Week 5: Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts

Prediction: Jaguars 35, Colts 14

Thoughts: I've slowed down on my interest in what the Colts might be. I no longer think they're going to be a dark horse team this year to contend. There are just too many questions on both sides of the ball, starting with quarterback Anthony Richardson.

I think the Jaguars are the better team.

Record: 3-2

Week 6: Jaguars at Chicago Bears (Tottenham Hotspur Stadium)

Prediction: Jaguars 30, Bears 24

Thoughts: Caleb Williams is going to be a great quarterback in this league. The Jaguars still have the advantage until proven otherwise.

Record: 4-2

Week 7: Jaguars vs. New England Patriots (Wembley Stadium)

Prediction: Jaguars 28, Patriots 3

Thoughts: The Patriots, especially if Drake Maye still isn't starting by this point, might be one of the worst teams in the league this year. That's how it goes in a rebuild.

Record: 5-2

Week 8: Jaguars vs. Green Bay Packers

Prediction: Packers 30, Jaguars 21

Thoughts: Green Bay is going to be a lot better than many casual observers would believe. Jordan Love is the answer, somehow after Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre. Jacksonville, while at home, will be coming off of two straight London games and no bye week in between. It's a tough game no matter where.

Record: 5-3

Week 9: Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday Night Football)

Prediction: Jaguars 28, Eagles 20

Thoughts: The more I read about the Eagles , the more issues I see. Is Jalen Hurts a legitimate QB? I think so, but losing Jason Kelce is going to have a much bigger impact than people realize, I think.

Record: 6-3

Week 10: Jaguars vs. Minnesota Vikings

Prediction: Jaguars 20, Vikings 7

Thoughts: Sam Darnold is the Vikings' starting QB. That actually makes it more likely Minnesota wins this one, and then we have to remember it's Sam Darnold. Minnesota will rely on one of the league's best players — Justin Jefferson, but I don't think he's enough. The Jaguars should win this one easily at home.

Record: 7-3

Week 11: Jaguars at Detroit Lions

Prediction: Lions 28, Jaguars 20

Thoughts: The Jaguars won't be going 8-3 for a second straight year.

Record: 7-4

Week 12: BYE

Week 13: Jaguars vs. Houston Texans

Prediction: Jaguars 27, Texans 17

Thoughts: The true turning point for the Jaguars' season and they'll do well, if healthy against a visiting Texans team. By this point, Brian Thomas Jr. should be fully entrenched and Lawrence should be better than he's ever been. Should.

Record: 8-4

Week 14: Jaguars at Tennessee Titans

Prediction: Jaguars 28, Titans 24

Thoughts: It's funny, I actually think the Titans will be better than people give them credit for. They addressed both sides of the football this year trading for cornerback L'Jarius Sneed and signing receiver Calvin Ridley.

Tennessee also beefed up the team's offensive line by signing center Lloyd Cushenberry III and drafting tackle JC Latham. I think they'll do just fine.

Still, I don't think the Jaguars lose this one. Not when they need to win as many as they can late in the season.

Record: 9-4

Week 15: Jaguars vs. New York Jets

Prediction: Jets 28, Jaguars 10

Thoughts: The Jets' defense is just too good. Aaron Rodgers is, too, when healthy. Will he be? Without knowing, we have to assume he will be fine.

Record: 9-5

Week 16: Jaguars at Las Vegas Raiders

Prediction: Jaguars 35, Raiders, 10

Thoughts: Christmas in Vegas and the Jaguars bring home a 'W' and give the Raiders lumps of coal to give to Gardner Minshew II.

Record: 10-5

Week 17: Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans

Prediction: Titans 24, Jaguars 20

Thoughts: I wasn't kidding when I said I think the Titans will be better than people expect. They spoil Jacksonville's New Year's, but it won't matter much as they likely clinch a playoff spot the week after or before.

Record: 10-6

Week 18: Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts

Prediction: Jaguars 24, Colts 3

Thoughts: I don't know. Maybe I should be more bullish on Indianapolis but I can't get Richardson's struggles and inability to stay healthy out of my head. I think the Jaguars close out the season on a high note.

Record: 11-6

Demetrius Harvey is the Jacksonville Jaguars reporter for the Florida Times-Union. You can follow him on X,  formerly known as Twitter, at @Demetrius82 .

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This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Jacksonville Jaguars season predictions: How many wins for Trevor Lawrence team in 2024