A Tropical Storm Helene is looking less likely, but Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight is swamping southeastern North Carolina with gusty winds and life-threatening flash flooding as it nears landfall, according to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center.
The poorly-organized disturbance picked up speed slightly this morning but as it nears landfall the chances of it becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone are dropping, forecasters said . The disturbance is expected to weaken after the system moves inland and dissipate by early Wednesday.
“Everyone across coastal North Carolina, southeast Virginia, and northeast South Carolina needs to be prepared for a stormy end to the weekend and a threat for flooding next week,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alan Reppert said in an email. “Don’t wait to start preparing until this storm is named. We’re forecasting gusty winds that could reach 80 mph and flooding rainfall. We don’t want anyone to be caught off guard and unprepared, especially in areas that are prone to flash flooding and beach erosion, which could block roads.”
The disturbance is expected to reach the coast of South Carolina this afternoon and bring from 4 to 8 inches of rainfall with isolated areas getting up to 10 inches, then move inland tonight through Wednesday.
➤ Track all active storms
➤ Weather alerts via text : Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location
Heavy rain and gusty winds started lashing eastern North Carolina Sunday night and parts of the North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia coast will see rough surf, beach erosion and dangerous rip currents over the next few days, forecasters said. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina within the Tropical Storm Warning area through tonight. Flash flooding and road closures are possible.
Rough surf and life-threatening rip currents could extend as far south as Jacksonville over the next couple of days.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for South Santee River, South Carolina northward to Ocracoke Inlet,North Carolina. The warning for Edisto Beach to South Santee River has been discontinued.
Farther out at sea, Gordon strengthened a bit this morning as a tropical depression but could drop down to post-tropical remnant at any time, according to the National Hurricane Center's latest advisory . Gordon is not threatening any land.
The hurricane center is also monitoring three tropical waves.
- An eastern Atlantic tropical wave
- An eastern Caribbean tropical wave near western Venezuela
- A central Caribbean tropical wave is extending to inland Colombia
Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 2 p.m. Monday, Sept. 16:
Where is Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight?
- Location : 60 miles south-southwest of Cape Fear, North Carolina, 90 miles east-northeast of Charleston, South Carolina,
- Maximum sustained winds: 40 mph
- Movement : northwest at 5 mph
- Next advisory: 5 p.m.
Potential impact from Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight
WIND: Tropical storm conditions within the warning area are expected to diminish through late this afternoon.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:
- South Santee River, SC to Oregon Inlet, NC: 1-3 ft
- Neuse and Bay Rivers, NC: 1-3 ft
- Pamlico and Pungo Rivers, NC: 1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight will bring 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with isolated totals near 10 inches, across portions of northeast South Carolina into southeast North Carolina today into tonight. Across the remainder of North Carolina, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, with isolated totals near 6 inches, are expected through Tuesday. Over much of Virginia, 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, with locally higher amounts, are expected tonight through Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to a risk flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur through this evening across eastern North Carolina.
SURF: Swells are forecast to affect portions of the coast of the southeastern United States during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
What impact can Florida expect from Tropical Cyclone Eight?
The storm is expected to move over the Carolinas and will not directly impact Florida, but the northeast coast may see dangerous surf conditions and life-threatening rip currents.
A coastal flood advisory as far south as Flagler County is in effect until 5 a.m. Wednesday and moderate flooding is expected at the St. Johns River near Astor, affecting Volusia and Lake counties. A high rip current risk continues for northeast Florida through late tonight.
Spaghetti models for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight
Spaghetti models for Tropical Depression Gordon
Special note about spaghetti models: Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
What's out there and how likely are they to strengthen?
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight : the disturbance was centered near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 78.3 West. The system is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected during the next day or two.
On the forecast track, the low will reach the coast of South Carolina this afternoon and then move inland across the Carolinas tonight through early Wednesday.
Surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before the system reaches the coast, but steady weakening is anticipated after the system moves inland. The low is forecast to dissipate over the Carolinas by early Wednesday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles from the center. A National Ocean Service station at Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 51 mph and a gust of 67 mph.
The minimum central pressure based on aircraft dropsonde data is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
- Formation chance through 48 hours: high, 70 percent.
- Formation chance through seven days: high, 70 percent.
Tropical Depression Gordon : Gordon is located 985 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving at 7 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. Gordon could degenerate into a remnant low at any time during the next few days.
Tropical wave 1: An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 24.5W from 06N to 19N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is depicted in association to this wave.
Tropical wave 2 : A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W from 20N southward to western Venezuela, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed across Hispaniola.
Tropical wave 3 : A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W extending from 20N to inland west Panama. Scattered moderate convection is depicted north of 18N between 80W and 84W. Similar convection is occurring along and near the far southern portions of this wave, likely aided by the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough reaching across the southwest Caribbean.
What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on a tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until a there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
"If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said.
Who is likely to be impacted?
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight could cause seas and surf to build in the stretch of the Atlantic coast from northeastern Florida to the Delmarva Peninsula into next week, according to AccuWeather forecasters.
Heavy rain, coastal flooding, and high surf to portions of the southeast United States coast beginning tonight and continuing during the next couple of days.
The system will bring the potential for scattered flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding across eastern North Carolina and northeast South Carolina from tonight into early Tuesday. There is also a risk of isolated flash and urban flooding across much of the Mid-Atlantic region through Wednesday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina within the Tropical Storm Warning area through tonight.
The system has the potential to become a named storm. If it does, it will be named Helene.
➤ Excessive rainfall forecast
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared. That advice is particularly important for what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
Stay informed. Get weather alerts via text
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season was Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
National Hurricane Center map: What are forecasters watching now?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
Excessive rainfall forecast
What's next?
We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here .
This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: Storm off Carolinas weakening, but lashing coast with wind, rain, flash flooding
Local News
Comments / 0