In an era where the expectations and impatience of football team owners and college administrators keeps rising, it’s no wonder they have itchy trigger fingers when it comes to firing coaches.
The New York Jets’ Robert Saleh became the seventh NFL coach Tuesday to get jettisoned during midseason in the past two years. As the Jets struggled to jump-start their offense with former league MVP Aaron Rodgers running the show, owner Woody Johnson pulled the plug.
Don’t expect the midseason coaching carnage on the pro or college level to stop there. It’s just a question of where the ax falls next.
Based on the increasing number of coaches being ushered out in the NFL and colleges before the season ends, it seems inevitable more will get the pink slip before America sits down at the Thanksgiving table.
Here are eight candidates, including Florida’s Billy Napier and the Jacksonville Jaguars’ Doug Pederson, whose job security is in a danger zone that bears watching:
While he might have earned a one-week respite from intense scrutiny after last week’s 24-13 home win over UCF , there’s little question Napier remains a long shot to not be fired at some point in 2024.
Complicating matters off the field is the status of Florida’s president . Interim Ken Fuchs may be uncomfortable firing Napier because he served as prez when UF hired the coach who succeeded Dan Mullen in November 2021.
This remains a fluid situation because when and how the power structure at Florida will address the Napier situation is a mystery. Athletic director Scott Stricklin, who brought in both Mullen and Napier, may get a rare third chance to hire the right coach, but a lot could change in the coming weeks.
Rumors abound that UF power players are working behind the scenes to get ahead of a search for potential successors, with names like Ole Miss’ Lane Kiffin, Washington’s Jedd Fisch and Missouri’s Eli Drinkwitz prominently mentioned.
But after beating lowly Mississippi State and the Gators’ defense finally showing a pulse in stuffing UCF’s potent offense , the truth is Florida will likely ride it out with Napier a while longer.
It’s a longshot Napier survives with UF’s brutal remaining schedule, but what if the Gators upset No. 8-ranked Tennessee on the road Saturday (they’ve won 10 of past 12 meetings in Knoxville) and win at home next week against Kentucky? Florida just stymied UCF’s top-5 national rushing attack and faces an even better one with Tennessee’s 1-2 duo of Dylan Sampson and DeSean Bishop.
Knocking off the Volunteers is probably what it would take for Napier to finish with at least a 6-6 record and get to a bowl game, which is still no guarantee of him staying employed.
Few give Napier much chance of keeping his job. Then again, who thought Vanderbilt could beat No. 1-ranked Alabama?
Napier looks like a lame duck, but he’s not gone yet.
Doug Pederson, Jaguars; Temperature – Hot
With the Jaguars at 1-4, and Saleh surprisingly gone earlier than many thought, it’s impossible to not have Pederson sitting on the NFL’s hottest seat at the moment.
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Though owner Shad Khan has a reputation as one of the league’s most patient owners — letting 14-48 Gus Bradley stay four seasons and not firing 23-43 Doug Marrone one year earlier — this is a different situation.
For the first time in his Jaguars’ tenure, Khan came out this offseason and put a “win now” edict on his franchise , essentially saying he expects Jacksonville to make the playoffs and win a game or two.
It doesn’t help Pederson’s cause that Khan embellished by saying this was the best roster in Jaguars history, forgetting that the late 1990s teams had Mark Brunell, Tony Boselli, Jimmy Smith, Fred Taylor and Keenan McCardell.
Khan’s oops judgment aside, and even accounting for some key injuries, Pederson has a lot of ground to make up. The next two London games against the Chicago Bears and New England Patriots offer favorable matchups, but the Jaguars also found a way to screw up a similar scenario at EverBank Stadium against the Cleveland Browns.
A two-game sweep in London feels imperative for Pederson to dial down the scrutiny about his future. He’s got to hope Trevor Lawrence and the offense have found a rhythm, while figuring out with coordinator Ryan Nielsen what to do about the team’s ridiculously bad pass defense.
Considering that Pederson is coming off back-to-back winning seasons, a first for the Jaguars since 2004-05, his name didn’t figure to be attached to any hot seat this year.
The slow start and Khan’s unprecedented offseason demands have changed the narrative . Plus, the margin for error is now incredibly small.
Six of the Jaguars’ next seven games are against opponents who have winning records. Plus, a Week 18 road matchup with the Indianapolis Colts is no gimme putt, especially after what happened last season at then 5-11 Tennessee when they blew the AFC South title.
What would it take to assure Pederson a fourth season in Jacksonville? Is getting to the playoffs mandatory?
Depending on circumstances over the last 12 games, Khan’s minimum standard is probably a 9-8 record, which means going 8-4 the rest of the way. The Jaguars went 6-6 and 7-5, respectively, the past two years at the 12-game finish line under Pederson.
While it’s possible Pederson could survive at 8-9, the definitive win-now declaration by Khan means he certainly can’t count on it.
Nobody could have possibly imagined over the summer that Norvell’s name would show up on this kind of list.
No team in the country has sunk further below expectations than the Seminoles , who were coming off a 13-1 ACC Championship season and a 10-3 record the past two years.
But with FSU at 1-5, and threatening to miss a bowl game for the third time in Norvell’s five seasons — that hasn’t happened since a stretch from 1972-76 — the boss in Tallahassee is feeling some heat.
Not that Norvell is on a firing line just yet. With him signing an eight-year contract extension in January at $84 million , which includes a $65 million buyout, there’s little chance of Norvell getting the boot this year.
However, FSU having a putrid offense that averages 14.8 points per game (128th ranking of 133 teams) and 273.5 yards (125th ranking) is precisely the kind of ineptness that can severely diminish a coach’s job security.
The main difference between 2024 and last season is Norvell, after hitting some home runs in the transfer portal, whiffed badly this time around. He has benched quarterback DJ Uiagalelei, an Oregon State transfer who also struggled at Clemson, in favor of Brock Glenn .
With upcoming road games against Duke, Miami and Notre Dame after a bye week, plus only one sure win at home against Charleston Southern, it’d take substantial improvement for Norvell just to get to 4-8.
That means a coach who was beloved just a few months ago could find himself on high alert for termination in 2025 if things don’t turn around.
Sam Pittman, Arkansas; Seat temperature – Cooling
He was sitting on a scalding hot seat with Napier before the Razorbacks took down Rocky Top.
Nobody looked more relieved than Pittman on Saturday after Arkansas upset high-powered Tennessee 19-14, giving his program its first win over a Top-5 team since 1999.
Pittman, 7-16 in one-score games over five seasons, had a calculated needle for the media about that after the UT upset, saying: “And if y’all care, it was a one-score game. Might want to write about that, too.”
Holding Tennessee to 40 points below its scoring average, and the game-winning touchdown being scored on an 11-yard run by backup quarterback Malachi Singleton (starter Taylor Green got hurt), was an invaluable boost for Pittman.
At 4-2 overall and 2-1 in the SEC, with his three toughest games against LSU, Ole Miss and Texas all at home, Pittman might now escape a pink slip.
Hugh Freeze, Auburn; Seat temperature – Warming up
It’s likely the only saving grace Freeze has right now is being only in his second season, but a Napier-like start (8-11 overall, 3-8 in SEC) is already raising some eyebrows.
The Tigers have dropped four of their last five games, all against Power 4 opponents, and averaged just 15.5 points in those defeats. Freeze can’t get consistent play out of Payton Thorne and didn’t do himself any favors throwing his quarterback under the bus after a 24-14 home loss to Arkansas.
Freeze put himself on shaky ground in 2023 by losing his last three games, including a disastrous 31-10 rout at home against New Mexico State. With Auburn on a bye week, Freeze better get his offense in order or things could get real dicey on the Plains.
Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns; Seat temperature – Rising fast
He’s still got a winning record (39-36) in his sixth season, thanks to a pair of 11-win seasons in 2020 and ‘23 that catapulted the perennially bad Browns into the playoffs.
But after a 1-4 start and the only win coming against the Jaguars, things are turning sour in Cleveland, especially with Stefanski standing firmly behind embattled quarterback Deshaun Watson.
This train is going south at a high rate of speed. The Browns might well be underdogs in their last 12 games.
Nick Sirianni, Philadelphia Eagles; Seat temperature – Rising fast
Since a 10-1 start last season, the Eagles are 3-8 and getting hammered by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers prior to their recent bye week only invited more scrutiny about Sirianni and an alleged disconnect with quarterback Jalen Hurts.
The Eagles have enough talent to right the ship, but a home loss Sunday to the Browns would put Sirianni further in the crosshairs of the NFL’s most tempestuous fan base.
Mike McCarthy, Dallas Cowboys; Seat temperature – Cooling
With his team squeaking out wins over the New York Giants and Pittsburgh Steelers the past two weeks, McCarthy has probably eased some of the tension in Dallas.
But the litmus test will be the next six games when the Cowboys play arguably the NFL’s toughest schedule. It starts with a home game against the Detroit Lions, followed by a bye week.
Then Dallas has three road games against San Francisco, Atlanta and Washington, with home matchups against Philadelphia and Houston sandwiched in there.
With Super Bowl trophy-hungry Jerry Jones as his boss, McCarthy (46-30) will likely see his fate come down to the Cowboys making a playoff run. That is, providing they get there.
Gfrenette@jacksonville.com ; (904) 359-4540; Follow him on X, formerly Twitter, at @genefrenette
This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Hot seat gauge: How safe are Billy Napier, Doug Pederson, Mike Norvell, other coaches?
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