Chances have remained the same for chances of Invest 94L to become the season's next named storm.
While Florida residents should continue to closely monitor the system — and always be prepared — don't panic. Even if it does become a strong tropical storm or hurricane , Florida may avoid direct impacts from this one. That's welcome news to a state hit by two hurricanes in less than two weeks.
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While Invest 94L currently has a medium chance for development over the next seven days, a couple of factors may help keep it away from Florida: the mountains over Hispaniola and wind shear, according to AccuWeather.
The next named storm of the season will be Nadine.
Here's what you should know about Invest 94L.
Will Invest 94L become Tropical Storm Nadine?
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
At 2 p.m., the National Hurricane Center said recent satellite surface wind data showed the circulation associated with a disturbance designated as Invest 94L over the tropical Atlantic Ocean has become less defined since Tuesday, Oct. 16.
➤ Invest 94L spaghetti models
The trough of low pressure continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
This system is forecast to move generally westward to west-northwestward, and environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for gradual development during the latter part of this week.
A tropical depression could form as the system moves near the Leeward and Virgin Islands late this week.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 30 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: medium, 40 percent.
"It is possible for the feature to ramp up quickly to a tropical depression, tropical storm and hurricane as its core approaches or passes near the Leewards late this week," said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva.
Invest 94L spaghetti models
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
Will Invest 94L become Tropical Storm Nadine or Hurricane Nadine?
Right now, Invest 94L is "struggling to get organized," said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva in a telephone interview Tuesday, Oct. 15. "It has circulation, but what's missing are consistent thunderstorms around the center of circulation. It's in a hostile environment right now, dealing with wind shear and dry air.
"It looks like any development over the next couple of days will be slow. Late in the week, probably Thursday or Friday, that's when the window opens for it to develop into a tropical storm as wind shear relaxes. AccuWeather's forecast is for it to become a tropical storm by Thursday night, early Friday, or, at the earliest, by Thursday afternoon.
Where could potential Tropical Storm Nadine go?
DaSilva offered three different scenarios on where Invest 94L could go:
- A path north of the Virgin Islands
- A path over Hispaniola
- A path south of Hispaniola
What could the three possible paths mean for Florida?
- Northerly track: If Invest 94L moves north of the Virgin Islands, it could potentially move close to Puerto Rico between Thursday afternoon (Oct. 17) to Saturday morning (Oct. 19).
- "That's pretty favorable environment to strengthen and it could become a strong tropical storm or hurricane Friday or Saturday. That possibility is on the table," DaSilva said.
- "By the time it approaches the Bahamas or Turks and Caicos, wind shear significantly increases and it most likely would be torn apart. There's a very low chance of a direct impact to Florida."
- Indirect impacts include rough surf and rip currents Sunday and Monday, DaSilva said.
- Over Hispaniola: This currently is the most likely track, according to DaSilva. Saturday afternoon into Sunday, the storm could move into Hispaniola, where high mountains are predicted to rip it apart.
- But those same mountains "could squeeze out a lot of precipitation. We could see very, very heavy rainfall in Haiti and the Dominican Republic."
- Southerly track: If Invest 94L moves south of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, avoiding mountains, it could become stronger in the Caribbean. At this time, this scenario isn't likely," DaSilva said.
- But if this is the path, it's likely to move west toward Mexico, without any direct impacts to Florida and the U.S.
Wind shear helping protect Florida, this time
"Wind shear should protect Florida from Invest 94L," DaSilva said. "That's good news. We definitely don't need another one."
What is an invest?
Short for investigation , the National Hurricane Center uses the term invest for areas of low pressure it is monitoring for potential development into a tropical depression or storm.
Invests are not tropical depressions or tropical storms. They're usually clusters of showers and thunderstorms, and just because they've been designated as an invest does not guarantee they'll develop into a tropical cyclone.
Invests run from 90 to 99, followed by a letter : L for the Atlantic basin and E for those in the eastern Pacific. After 99, it starts over again and the next invest would be 90.
Once something has been designated as an invest, specialized data sets and computer models can begin, including scheduling Hurricane Hunter aircraft missions and running spaghetti models.
National Hurricane Center map: What are forecasters watching now?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.
➤ Tropics watch, Oct. 16 : See the latest on the National Hurricane Center is tracking
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(This story was updated to add new information.)
This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Will Invest 94L become Tropical Storm Nadine? What you should know about latest forecast path
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