Hurricane Oscar made landfall overnight on Great Inagua Island as a very small Category 1 storm, forecasters said, and was expected to reach Cuba later Sunday.
Oscar is close to landfall along the northern coast of eastern Cuba, where conditions will soon deteriorate, the National Hurricane Center said in a 5 p.m. update .
A northeasterly turn is expected from Oscar's path as the government of the Bahamas discontinued its Tropical Storm Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands.
Hurricane-force winds of about 80 mph extend about 10 miles from the center of Hurricane Oscar.
Tropical Depression Nadine dissipated over southern Mexico, the National Hurricane Center reported as of 10 a.m. advisory. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding are still expected over parts of Belize, Guatemala, and Mexico.
Nadine dumped enough rain for flash flood possibilities across southern Mexico, northern Guatemala and northern Belize early Sunday, forecasters said in their discussion.
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There were no other tropical cyclones expected to form in the next seven days, according to the NHC's 8 a.m. Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook.
The next named storms would be Patty and Rafael.
What is Hurricane Oscar's path and where is it going?
Location: 20 miles north-northwest of the eastern tip of Cuba, 60 miles east-northeast of Guantanamo, Cuba
Maximum sustained winds: 80 mph
Present movement: West-southwest at 6 mph
Minimum central pressure: 986 MB
As of the 5 p.m. EDT advisory: The center of Hurricane Oscar was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 74.3 West. Oscar is moving toward the west-southwest near 6 mph. A continued west-southwestward motion at a slow forward speed is expected through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest and north on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Oscar is expected to make landfall along the northern coast of eastern Cuba shortly. The system is then expected to move across eastern Cuba tonight and Monday. Oscar is then forecast to begin moving a bit faster to the northeast across the central Bahamas on Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph with higher gusts. After Oscar makes landfall, significant weakening is expected, but Oscar could still be a tropical storm when it moves north of Cuba late Monday and then moves across the central Bahamas on Tuesday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). Recently, there was a wind gust of 63 mph from a weather station in Punta Maisi on the eastern tip of Cuba. The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb. A weather station in Punta Maisi on the eastern tip of Cuba recently reported a minimum pressure of 998 mb.
Watches and warnings:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the north coast of the Cuban Provinces of Holguin and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the north coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the southeastern Bahamas, the south coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo, and the north coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the north coast of the Cuban Province of Camaguey and central Bahamas
What hurricane warnings and watches mean: A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
What tropical storm warnings and watches mean: A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
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What is Tropical Depression Nadine's path and where is it going?
As of the 11 a.m. EDT advisory: The remnants of Nadine were located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 93.0 West. The remnants are moving toward the west-southwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and they are expected to move into the eastern Pacific later today.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The combination of the remnants of Nadine and influences from a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event are forecast to result in the formation of a new low pressure system off the coast of southern Mexico in a day or so. Additional development is expected after that time, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the early to middle part of this week while the system moves westward at about 15 mph away from the coast of Mexico.
For additional information on the remnants of Nadine please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php , and the latest updates in the East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook on the web at hurricanes.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac .
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
Watches and warnings: None are in effect for Tropical Depression Nadine.
Tropical Storm Nadine spaghetti models
'Hints' are there for tropical development in western Caribbean later this month
In its two-week forecast, Colorado State University meteorologists said there is a 50% chance for tropical development through Oct. 28.
There's nothing out there now and even with Tropical Storm Nadine forming, chances for development of Invest 94L is fairly low.
However, "There are hints of potential additional development in the western Caribbean late in the forecast period, but these signals are fairly weak," CSU forecasters said.
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"Wind shear anomalies are forecast to be somewhat below normal during the two-week period in the Caribbean, so we believe that there is additional potential for tropical cyclone formation in the Caribbean."
A similar forecast was issued by Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist with WeatherTiger.
"I am confident that the next week and a half will be free of the conepanics associated with tropical threats to the continental United States," Truchelut said. "However, at longer range, hurricane season is not over." Truchelut is a Florida meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network.
"There are solid indications that of a couple of weeks of unusually favorable upper-level winds are coming to the Caribbean starting at the very end of October and extending through mid-November.
"With the Caribbean Sea still blazing hot, it’s possible that one or two more named storms could be squeezed out of this set-up. That’s not to say that these would be U.S. landfall threats — history suggests they wouldn’t be — but it’s worth keeping an eye on the Oct. 30 through Nov. 10 window, just in case."
Late-season hits from major hurricanes unusual for Florida
The latest Florida Category 3+ landfall, the 1921 Tarpon Springs hurricane, occurred on Oct. 25, and a major hurricane has never struck anywhere in the U.S. after Oct. 28, Truchelut said.
"Only about 2% of annual U.S. landfall activity occurs beyond that date: about 20 storms in around 170 years, seven of which were hurricanes. Most late season landfalls are focused on South Florida, with Category 2 Hurricane Kate in the Panhandle a notable exception."
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
What is an invest?
Short for investigation , the National Hurricane Center uses the term invest for areas of low pressure it is monitoring for potential development into a tropical depression or storm.
Invests are not tropical depressions or tropical storms. They're usually clusters of showers and thunderstorms, and just because they've been designated as an invest does not guarantee they'll develop into a tropical cyclone.
Invests run from 90 to 99, followed by a letter : L for the Atlantic basin and E for those in the eastern Pacific. After 99, it starts over again and the next invest would be 90.
Once something has been designated as an invest, specialized data sets and computer models can begin, including scheduling Hurricane Hunter aircraft missions and running spaghetti models.
What else is the National Hurricane Center tracking?
The National Hurricane Center is tracking no other disturbances in the Atlantic basin, which includes the northern Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on a tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until a there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
"If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
Countdown clock: When will 2024 Atlantic hurricane season end?
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
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(This story was updated to add new information.)
This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: National Hurricane Center tracks Hurricane Oscar's path; keeps eye on weakening Nadine
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