New poll shows sharp differences in how Modern Orthodox and Haredi will vote

A new poll shows sharp differences among Orthodox and Haredi voters, with 93% of Haredim intending to vote for former President Donald Trump and 55% of Modern Orthodox intending to vote for Vice President Kamala Harris in a head-to-head match-up.

The Nishma Research poll of 1,296 voters, conducted via web between Aug. 28 and Sept. 18, also indicated that Orthodox Jews rank Israel and antisemitism as critically important issues, far more so than non-Orthodox voters rank them in other polls. Nishma is a Connecticut-based marketing firm that specializing in surveying the Orthodox.

The survey, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, also showed a slight uptick in Orthodox support for Trump overall: 77% marks a 4 percentage point increase from a similar Nishma poll taken a year ago, prior to the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel.

About a tenth of Jewish Americans identify as Orthodox.

American Jews in general vote overwhelmingly for Democrats. In the last election, 77% of Jewish voters cast ballots for President Joe Biden, according to a J Street poll (68% according to an Associated Press survey .)

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Nishma pollster Mark Trencher said 678 respondents in this year’s poll identified as Haredi — Hasidic or Yeshivish Jews who belong to a sect or follow a particular rabbi. Modern Orthodox Jews, who closely observe Jewish law but are more integrated in secular society, represented 595 respondents.

The poll also found that:

• 68% of Haredim will definitely vote for Trump, and 15% probably will, compared to 27% of Modern Orthodox who will definitely vote for Trump and 11% who probably will;
• 5% of Haredim will definitely vote for Harris and 2% probably will, compared to 37% of Modern Orthodox who will definitely vote for Harris and 9% who probably will;
• 4% of Haredim and 7% of Modern Orthodox are undecided;
• 4% of Haredim and 6% of Modern Orthodox will probably not vote.
• 2% of Haredim and 3% of Modern Orthodox will vote for candidates other than Trump or Harris.

Haredi support for Trump is high, ranging from 88% to 96%, across all age groups and for both men and women.

A small majority of Modern Orthodox men over 50 said they intend to vote for Trump, and 72% of Modern Orthodox women under 50 said they would vote for Harris.

“Younger Modern Orthodox women, like their non-Orthodox and non-Jewish peers, are an area of weakness for Trump,” but not Haredi women, Trencher said. “In other surveys we’ve done, younger women tend to be a bit more liberal religiously than men, and maybe this carries over to their political views as well.”

In a recent poll of 800 Jewish Americans — including non-Orthodox and Orthodox respondents — sponsored by the Jewish Democratic Council of America, 9% of respondents named Israel as one of the two most important issues.

In the Nishma poll, overwhelming majorities of both Haredi and Modern Orthodox voters told pollsters that Israel and antisemitism are their top issues.

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