Billy Napier won't get off hot seat with empty calories. Beat someone, Florida | Toppmeyer

The past three Florida football seasons were so bleak for Gators fans that an overdose of schadenfreude called for celebration.

Florida State’s loss to Georgia Tech on Saturday became the best thing to happen to Gator Nation since Netflix’s puff-piece documentary about the Urban Meyer era.

“Hahahaha FSU just lost! Let’s all laugh at them,” one Gators fan wrote online.

When Gators fans' guffaws finally subsided, Florida still possessed a five-game losing streak dating to October. It owns just 17 victories in its past 41 games.

Schadenfreude offers gleeful distraction. It’s not a solution.

For embattled Florida coach Billy Napier to survive this season, he must provide Gators fans opportunities to revel in success when they're not laughing at their rivals’ stumbles.

Let me state it clearly: If Napier can't perform against UF’s in-state rivals in Year 3, then Florida can't justify keeping him for a fourth season.

The challenge starts Saturday, when the Gators host No. 19 Miami.

Miami is just a 2.5-point favorite despite being considered among the ACC's top teams. The media picked Florida to finish 12th in the SEC. The narrow betting spread is a testament to the SEC's perceived strength and to The Swamp’s ferocity.

“We’re going to have 93,000 of our dearest friends out there,” Napier said. “We want to create a nightmare for our opponent.”

Florida's schedule threatens to be a nightmare. The Gators are the only SEC team scheduled to face 11 Power Four opponents. They’re also the only SEC team with three in-state rivals on the schedule.

Napier improved the roster. A flock of transfers boosted a depth chart that's in its best state since 2020. The schedule, though, is among the nation's toughest.

“We have a schedule where we could play ourselves right into the middle of (contention),” he said.

That’s an optimistic outlook built on the idea that Florida will tout a robust strength of schedule. The Gators also could play their way to a 3-9 record that would leave Napier entering Buyout Beach into his GPS.

TOPPMEYER: My preseason college football gifts include a little something for Billy Napier and Nick Saban

SEC POWER POLL: Georgia on top, Lane Kiffin's big chance, and a Texas-sized reminder for UT

Rivalry games offer an important chance to redirect perception. Playoff qualification is a pipe dream, but if Florida beats Miami, UCF and FSU, the Gators will be well on their way to bowl qualification and a record that I believe would earn Napier another season.

Alternatively, in-state rivalry losses could doom Napier.

Ron Zook went a combined 1-4 against Miami and FSU. Florida fired him during his third season. By the time he beat FSU for the only time, he was a lame-duck coach.

Napier enjoys something Zook didn’t: a buyout that will remain in excess of $25 million in December.

He also benefits from the transitional state of Florida’s administration. The university brought Kent Fuchs out of the bullpen as interim president after Ben Sasse resigned in July, citing his wife's health. Fuchs was UF’s president when Florida hired Napier.

Interim presidents are more often tasked with keeping the lights on than changing power providers. In other words, this would not be an ideal time for a football coaching change. Normally, an athletic director would steer a coaching search, but why should AD Scott Stricklin lead another search?

Stricklin hired and fired Dan Mullen and hired Napier. This isn’t baseball. For ADs, it’s two strikes and you’re out. If Napier fails, he and Stricklin should help each other pack.

Napier’s hot seat became the undercurrent of Florida’s offseason. Although no reporters explicitly said the words “hot seat" during his news conference Monday, multiple questions alluded to the magnitude of this Miami game for Napier and his program.

He badly needs to beat a rival. He's 1-7 against Tennessee, Georgia, LSU and FSU. The lone victory came against the Vols in September 2023 at The Swamp.

Napier must fare well enough against rivals this season that Fuchs can ignore hot-seat chatter while ensuring the lights turn on each morning.

FSU’s Week 0 misery won’t save Napier or sustain Florida fans' appetite. Schadenfreude provides delicious but empty calories. Success against Miami, UCF and FSU would offer Napier a future.

Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network's SEC Columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter @btoppmeyer .

Subscribe to read all of his columns. Also, check out his podcast, SEC Football Unfiltered , and newsletter, SEC Unfiltered .

This article originally appeared on The Gainesville Sun: Billy Napier won't get off hot seat with empty calories. Beat someone, Florida | Toppmeyer