It’s Tennessee Week, so it goes without saying that this Saturday is a big game for Florida. That said, people are still saying it.
“This is a big game,” Billy Napier said, echoing what Florida football coaches have been saying since C.J. McCoy in 1916.
The Gators lost 24-0 that year and finished 0-5. UF fired McCoy after boosters reportedly scraped up $27 to fund his buyout.
That was never actually reported, but it makes a good segue to 2024.
Boosters have reportedly scraped up $27 million for Napier’s golden parachute. All that’s left is for UF to pull the ripcord.
That seemed imminent after T exas A&M drubbed the Gators three weeks ago. But Florida has won two in a row, which makes this year’s Tennessee talk far more than an echo.
For Napier, Saturday’s game is big. Notoriously B.I.G.
Saving his Billy Napier's job as Florida football coach: Unlikely or impossible?
Win, and he could dream the impossible dream. That phrase might strike a musical memory.
To dream the impossible dream
To fight the unbeatable foe
Those are the opening lyrics to “The Quest.” It was written for a Broadway musical in 1965 and quickly wormed its way into America’s consciousness.
Everybody from Frank Sinatra to The Temptations to Elvis to Luther Vandross covered it. I doubt Napier has ever cued it up at a Karaoke Night, but it should now be his theme song.
After the 33-20 loss to the Aggies, it was preposterous to picture Napier saving his job. That still seems only slightly more likely than Elvis being found alive and teaching aerobics in Brazil, but it’s not impossible.
The quest starts in earnest in Knoxville. The Gators could have won their past two games over Mississippi State and UCF by a combined 94-0, and most observers would have yawned.
Saturday is Napier’s first chance to prove his program is getting its act together. Tennessee is a 15½-point favorite, but stick with me here.
Josh Heupel’s warp-speed offense hasn’t looked all that warpy against Oklahoma and Arkansas. The Razorbacks upset Tennessee, 19-14, with backup QB Malachi Singleton leading the game-winning drive.
“The last couple of weeks we’ve had really good weeks of practice,” UF receiver Chimere Dike said. “We continue to get better.”
If that ends at Neyland Stadium, Napier would likely be fired at the end of the season. The Gators would be 3-3, with Kentucky up next.
Even if they beat the Wildcats, it’s hard to see them winning more than one of the next four games against Georgia, Texas, LSU and Ole Miss.
And even if they did win one, the Gators would be 5-6 heading into the final game against FSU. That looks like a win, but 6-6 is the absolute best semi-reasonable scenario if Florida loses Saturday.
It’s more likely the Gators would win one or none of their next five games. Beating FSU 176-0 wouldn’t save Napier if UF is 3-8 or 4-7 heading into that game.
The company Billy Napier keeps
But back to the impossible dream. If UF somehow beats Tennessee, the homecoming game against Kentucky would feel very winnable. So would at least one of the next four against Murderer’s Row.
Beat FSU, and the Gators would take a 7-6 record into a bowl game. Yes, a bowl game!
Win that, finish 8-6, and Napier would get one more year to prove Florida didn’t blow another coaching hire.
It’s taken a two-game winning streak to improve Napier’s record to 5-7 over the past 12 games. As Brett McMurphy of the Action Network pointed out, four other big-school coaches have similar records:
Sam Pittman, Sonny Dykes, Hugh Freeze and Lincoln Riley.
Pittman’s seat will remain hot, though Hog fans are back to loving him after Arkansas beat the Vols. Freeze is only in his second year at Auburn and is recruiting up a storm.
Dykes can say he got TCU to the national championship game just two years ago. Riley’s been a disappointment at USC, but most schools would hire him in a minute if he became available.
Napier?
About all he has to fall back on is two Sun Belt championships. Back to “The Quest.”
That one man, scorned and covered with scars
Still strove with his last ounce of courage
To fight the unbeatable foe
To reach the unreachable star
Hello, Rocky Top.
“Obviously, we know the implications,” Napier said. “We understand what it would do for the program.”
Win, and he can at least dream of reaching the unreachable star.
Lose, and someone else will be talking about how big the Tennessee game is next year.
David Whitley is The Gainesville Sun's sports columnist. Contact him at dwhitley@gannett.com. Follow him on X @DavidEWhitley
This article originally appeared on The Gainesville Sun: If Billy Napier is going to survive as Florida football coach, the key moment is upon us
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