Experts asked to assess strategic threat to UK as part of defence review

Members of the armed forces and government departments, manufacturers and academics have been asked to assess the strategic threat to the UK up to 2050 as part of the government’s root-and-branch review of defence policy.

George Robertson, a former Nato secretary general and defence secretary in Tony Blair’s first government, has written to dozens of interested parties with a 24-page questionnaire on the future of Britain’s defence.

Keir Starmer commissioned Lord Robertson to come up with a roadmap that equips the UK to “tackle international threats head on” and keep the country safe at a time when leaders across Europe recognise the need to increase defence spending to be combat-ready in the face of the continuing threat from Russia.

Robertson is drawing on expertise to work out how to direct Britain’s capability and funding.

“The UK faces threats that are growing and diversifying – war in Europe, conflict in the Middle East, states across the world that are increasingly acting in ways that challenge regional and global stability as well as our values and interests, terrorist groups, hybrid attacks and instability caused by climate change,” he wrote in his letter to respondents, seen by the Guardian.

His independent review is expected to be published in the first half of 2025, and will feed into the Ministry of Defence’s (MoD) strategy.

Labour has promised to increased defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2030, and Robertson said his review was intended to determine the “roles, capabilities and reforms” required to “meet the challenges, threats and opportunities” with that spending trajectory.

One of the questions asked is how Britain should contribute to Ukraine to “at least 2027 and beyond”.

According to MoD statistics, the UK has provided £7.6bn in military support since Russia’s invasion in February 2022, and Starmer has committed to sustain £3bn a year in military aid until 2030-31 and for “as long as it takes” if required beyond that.

Robertson also asks respondents to take a long-term punt and “describe the strategic threat and operational context for UK defence” between now and 2050, and to propose “in order of priority the roles UK defence must be capable of fulfilling 2024-2040”.

His review panel includes British-born Fiona Hill, a former US presidential adviser and official at the national security council, and the former UK joint forces commander Gen Sir Richard Barrons.

Respondents are also asked about Britain’s defence industry, and how inward investment, innovation and export growth can be supported and accelerated.

There is no specific mention of the EU in the questionnaire despite the declaration by the foreign secretary, David Lammy, in July that the UK will seek a wide-ranging security pact, but it does ask how UK defence “can build relationships with allies, partners and alliances”.

The vulnerability of Europe caused by a drop in artillery shell production after the cold war has been sharply highlighted by the shortages Ukraine has faced in the last year, leading to a Czech initiative to source ammunition from outside the EU.

Perhaps with an eye on the UK’s training of Ukrainian soldiers before the delivery of F-16 fighter jets, question 15 considers how there might be “optimum division” between UK defence and allies and partners on “individual and collective education and training”.

Defence sector respondents are asked how to accelerate the restoration of all married and single living accommodation to “standards acceptable by the services”.

Each of the armed forces is invited to “review their culture, organisation, training and institutional habits”. They are also asked to describe how they “reinforce modern war fighting imperatives” and to make recommendations on modernisation.

A spokesperson for the MoD said: “Our priority is to make Britain secure at home and strong abroad for decades to come.

“The strategic defence review will examine the threats we face, the state of our armed forces, and identify the capabilities needed to meet those threats.

“The review is engaging widely with our defence stakeholders, including industry partners, and we are clear on the need to ensure we have a strong defence sector and resilient supply chains across the whole of the UK.”