UK police risk assessment before riots said far-right threat probably ‘minimal’

In the months leading up to this summer’s riots, police leaders believed that the threat of violence from far-right protests was likely to be “minimal”, official papers reveal.

Documents from December 2023 show that police instead prioritised the pro-Palestinian movement, environmental protests, football matches and animal rights activism as potentially threatening public order.

Police deny that their internal documents show them underestimating the threat from the far right before the worst riots in more than a decade this summer, but experts disagree.

The private thinking of senior officers is revealed in the national public order – public safety strategic risk assessment from December 2023, produced by a team at the National Police Chiefs’ Council (NPCC). The document was obtained under freedom of information laws by Liberty Investigates and shared with the Guardian.

Among other issues, the risk assessment covered gatherings that could descend into disorder. The paper said of disparate groups making up the extreme far right: “It is also probable that events will be organised by a small cohort of dedicated members, attendance will be at low levels and disruption minimal.”

In a document from two years earlier, the far right was listed as a priority potential threat.

The December 2023 assessment came a month after far-right violence in London over the Armistice Day weekend , in which 90 people were arrested and police said the level of vitriol they faced was exceptional.

It also followed violent scenes outside asylum seeker accommodation in Merseyside earlier in the year.

Minutes from a December 2023 meeting of the NPCC’s national police public order working group show those present being warned: “Please ensure you are on top of those other bits that may not be in the spotlight … but very quickly come up on the radar and catch us by surprise.”

There have been 1,280 arrests and 796 charges to date after this summer’s violent disorder, and police say there may be hundreds more to come.

Those charged include individuals allegedly involved in a riot during which an attempt was made to set fire to a hotel housing asylum seekers in Rotherham.

Police referred to the far right in the internal documents produced for the NPCC as “cultural nationalists”.

The December 2023 assessment did detect the far right’s exploitation of issues surrounding asylum seekers. “Activity was largely regionally based, with the main target being asylum seeker accommodation, both that actively being used as such and that still in planning stages,” it said.

“Asylum seeker accommodation: CN (cultural nationalist) groups and activists are highly likely to pursue anti-immigration narratives, with asylum seeker accommodation likely to remain their primary focus.”

The assessment also said the far right would try to exploit concerns about asylum seekers and recent immigrants and crime.

The riots were triggered by false claims that the killings of three children in Southport in July were committed by a recent immigrant to the UK.

The police assessment said: “Social media platforms continue to be a frequently used tool to advertise events and share anti-immigration content, such as reports of crimes allegedly committed by asylum seekers, aimed at triggering emotive responses.”

Police believed that the disparate nature of the far right reduced the risk it posed. “The lack of cohesion and fractious nature of the groups … has highly likely lessened the impact of events,” the document’s authors said.

Nick Lowles, of Hope Not Hate, which tracks the far right, said: “The police have underestimated the threat from the far right for many years. While there has been increased monitoring and arrests of far-right terrorists, their coverage of street-based violence has been woefully inadequate.

“This partly stems from their failure to consider aggressive anti-Muslim hatred as a form of extremism, their poor understanding about the post-organisational nature of today’s far right and the total absence of political leadership and willingness to confront the far right at the Home Office for many years. The authorities need to grasp this problem before we see a repeat of the recent riots.”

One senior source with close knowledge of police intelligence-gathering said: “There was no indication that a sudden shift to violence was likely. We were alive that it could be, but there was nothing suggesting it would be.”

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A NPCC spokesperson said: “The strategic threat assessments do not seek to rank priority or threat areas. They are intended to paint a picture of what the threat looks like across national public order to support police forces. Therefore … it would be inaccurate to say that cultural nationalism was ‘downgraded’ as a priority area, and that a change had any impact on operational policing.”

The NPCC said: “Between 2021 and autumn 2023, the landscape of protest changed significantly – not just in the arena of ‘cultural nationalism’ but also, notably, in the thematic areas of ‘anti-government’, ‘internationally inspired’ and ‘environmental’ protest.”

It added that “immigration issues were identified as one of the key potential factors influencing protest activity” in spring 2024 and that “the assessment for autumn 2024 is currently ongoing”.