AfD’s success in German elections piles pressure on a fragmented EU

Alternative für Deutschland’s stunning success in Germany’s regional elections was described as “bitter” and “worrying” by chancellor Olaf Scholz. It is also concerning for the EU, which is grappling with existential problems, from Russia’s grinding war on Ukraine to the climate crisis , while at the beginning of a new five-year cycle after the European elections earlier this summer.

“A dark day for Germany is a dark day for Europe,” said French centrist MEP leader Valérie Heyer. While the results in the eastern states of Thuringia and Saxony were not a surprise after the AfD’s strong showing in June’s European parliamentary vote, they confirm the steady rise of parties once considered beyond the pale.

Radical and far-right parties are in government, or support the government, in Croatia, Finland, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Slovakia and Sweden. Austria could soon join that list with opinion polls showing the far-right Freedom party comfortably ahead before elections on 29 September.

Related: The AfD has stunned Germany – but this was no surprise victory | Hanno Hauenstein

Meanwhile, France remains stuck in political paralysis, nearly two months after the president, Emmanuel Macron, called snap elections in response to the victory of the far-right National Rally in the European elections. Germany’s coalition government – already seen as underpowered in Brussels – looks set to be even weaker after catastrophic results for all three governing parties in the two eastern states on Sunday.

While recent election results in Poland and Spain show nationalist and far-right forces can be defeated, the overall picture looks gloomy for the EU.

The weakness of France and Germany – the fabled motor driving European integration – in the face of the growing strength of the radical and far-right parties presents problems for the European project, which runs on compromise, respect for the rule of law and institutions.

A fragmented EU with the radical right in the ascendancy will affect the most politically momentous decisions.

Support for Ukraine will be threatened, especially as governments confront the costs of domestic rearmament, ongoing military support and Ukraine’s reconstruction.

The green agenda – entering a crucial implementation phase – will be at risk. Traditional centre-right parties, under pressure from the climate-sceptic far right, have shown they are ready to vote against ambitious policies to protect climate and nature .

Governments will also be under more pressure to curb migration – the issue that most unites radical and far-right parties.

The EU earlier this year agreed a sweeping package of laws to overhaul migration rules, including measures to speed up the return of people denied asylum, as well as share the cost of looking after people on the move. Hungary has denounced the pact, which is applicable from 2026, saying it will refuse any “mandatory solidarity” requirement to house asylum seekers, or make a financial or other contribution. If Hungary refuses, other governments could follow, pulling threads that unravel an untested system of EU cooperation.

Added nerves over Europe’s economic outlook and the soaring demands on the EU budget, which will have to be re-negotiated before 2028, the European project faces a rocky few years.

So far EU officials have sounded confident that such parties can be mostly contained or will moderate their behaviour once in office: a dynamic aided by the fact they are divided over foreign policy and how to handle Brussels. Europe’s radical and far-right forces are also splintered into three separate groups in the European parliament, blunting their effectiveness.

“The centre is holding,” European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said in June, once it became clear that pro-EU parties had won the most seats in the European parliament, although radical and far-right forces significantly increased their vote share.

Sitting around the tables of EU decision-making can meanwhile draw anti-EU leaders into the traditional ways of deal-making – a “socialisation effect [that] will eventually overrule their ideological baggage”, as described by researchers at the Carnegie Europe thinktank in Brussels

Giorgia Meloni is the textbook example. The Italian prime minister has mostly taken a pragmatic, non-confrontational approach to the EU, while curbing the rights of same-sex parents and seeking greater control over the media at home. In contrast, the EU’s struggle to contain the nationalist right is exemplified by Viktor Orbán. Hungary’s long-serving leader is a serial disruptor of EU decisions, even if he usually – but not always – backs down.

If the radical and far right continue to win elections, further boosted by a Donald Trump victory in November, containment becomes harder. The EU could see more Orbán copycats, rather than those emulating Meloni’s pragmatic strategy. “The challenge of the radical right needs to be addressed more seriously,” Carnegie researchers have said.