Think the left is finished? Look to the Greens and Independent Alliance – and think again | Owen Jones

In the aftermath of Jeremy Corbyn’s loss in the 2019 general election, many hostile to his leadership thought the left consigned to history. But the formation of the Independent Alliance is the latest manifestation of the left’s refusal to die. A formal working arrangement between the purged former Labour leader and four independent MPs who stood in the vast expanse to the left of Starmerism, the new formation is now the same size in parliament as Nigel Farage’s Reform party (albeit with a fraction of the media interest). With greater coordination, they hope to increase their visibility inside and outside parliament.

Combined with the four Green MPs, this is the biggest parliamentary grouping elected on a left-of-Labour platform in British history. Already the nine parliamentarians have worked together to table early day motions on the need for public ownership of water – here, Ellie Chowns, the Green MP, led the charge – and an immediate recognition of the state of Palestine .

To understand what next for the left, it is important to understand its voting coalition in July’s election. The first demographic is voters under 40 in urban areas, often in precarious jobs, privately renting and sometimes known as the “graduate without a future” – those who have accumulated huge levels of student debt but feel deprived of opportunities.

Labour’s weak stance on the genocidal onslaught in Gaza has not only rallied the community to oppose the party; its outlook has also become symbolic of the party’s wider contempt for a minority treated, at best, as voting fodder. Of course, Muslim voters do not just care about Gaza – as for other Britons, the NHS, housing and living standards are vital issues too.

The third is minority Britons in general. Even before the general election, Keir Starmer had the worst rating among people of colour of any Labour opposition leader since records began in 1996 – a full 51 points below Tony Blair in 1997. Labour lost a staggering third of its vote share among Black and Asian communities from its 2019 vote, with Greens and independents the main beneficiaries. By focusing heavily on a particular kind of socially conservative “red wall” voter and Tories, Starmer took Black and ethnic minority voters for granted and paid the price.

Are the Greens the obvious party for disaffected leftwing voters? In July’s election, arguably they were. With very little campaigning, the Greens won second place behind Labour in 39 seats. Voters dissatisfied with Starmerism largely turned up and voted for the party without even knowing who the candidate was. Given the Greens took Bristol Central from Labour shadow cabinet minister Thangam Debbonaire, doubling their vote share, many constituencies where the party was second-placed could now be in play with serious resources and boots on the ground.

But there are potential tensions. The Greens have a strong, principled left contingent in their membership, but some of the party’s activists have stronger political similarities with the Liberal Democrats: advocating environmental policies, sure, but without any fundamental redistribution of wealth and power. And while all its top target seats are urban Labour-held constituencies, the party won two rural constituencies from the Tories, one represented by its co-leader Adrian Ramsay. That could all blunt a distinctive leftist message. Its leadership, too, lacks popular cut-through – the party has no equivalent to Farage – and that limits its success.

Some on the left, too, are suspicious of the Greens, because their own politics revolves around the labour movement and social class, and they fear this is a party oriented around middle-class radicalism. Yet the Greens’ left-facing deputy leader, Zack Polanski, is adamant that the party’s leftwing urban voters and its countryside constituency can exist in a single coalition. “Even when you go to rural seats, voters want fairer taxation, nationalisation and renters’ rights,” he tells me. At the Green party conference starting today, a new leftwing faction (Greens Organise) is being founded, aided by an influx of young, radical members fed up with Starmer’s rightwing lurch.

The cooperation between Green party MPs and independent candidates in parliament has thus far been encouraging. But there is an obvious crack in that coalition that could emerge. As things stand, the Greens’ conference policy is to stand in every constituency. Would that include the seats of the Independent Alliance? If it does, it is unlikely they would win. The independents who triumphed did not exclusively win Muslim votes, but this is clearly their base – the exception, of course, being Corbyn, who is in a category of his own. In our atomised, fragmented society, Muslim Britons are often an exception, being more networked and community-oriented, making it easier for a candidate to establish a base and build outwards.

Related: Wednesday briefing: Reform did for the Tories. Could Labour face the same threat from the left?

In practice, the Greens and independents have much in common: from public ownership of utilities to drastic action on the climate emergency; from opposition to Israel’s genocide to workers’ rights; from tax justice to public investment. With the right amount of give and take between the two – and with leftwing Labour MPs who have had the whip withdrawn perhaps joining its ranks – an extremely influential coalition can be formed. The formation could even act as kingmaker in the event of a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party, with progressive Green and independent MPs demanding transformative social change, and a proportional electoral system that no longer conserves our ailing two-party state.

The future is full of possibility for the left. Starmer won with a share of the vote normally associated with severe defeat (33.7%), and the worst ever ratings of a successful leader of the opposition; a divided right-of-centre vote proved critical to his triumph. Now his ratings are dropping further, and a fifth of Labour voters are already dissatisfied with him. The lowest ever turnout in a democratic British election speaks to the lack of enthusiasm: Greens and independents should assiduously court those who abstained last time.

The truth is that Britain is afflicted by acute crises for which Starmerism has no answers. The new left may be fragmented, but with discipline and focus, the foundations could be laid for a historic political breakthrough.

• Owen Jones is a Guardian columnist

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