Tuesday briefing: Will a vote on Labour’s plan to cut the winter fuel payment lead to backbench rebellion?

Good morning. Later this afternoon, the House of Commons will very likely vote to make about nine million pensioners ineligible for the winter fuel allowance. But even if they win comfortably, Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves may come away with a much clearer sense of exactly what the £1.3bn saving is likely to cost them.

Any Labour MP still holding out hope that the government might make concessions around the edge of the policy to soften the blow received little encouragement from the chancellor at a party meeting last night. “I understand the decision that this government has made on winter fuel is a difficult decision,” she said. “[But] there’s a £22bn black hole in the public finances because of the mess created by the previous government.”

The question now is how many MPs will reject that analysis and vote against the government. For today’s newsletter, I spoke to Jessica Elgot, the Guardian’s deputy political editor, about the dilemma facing Labour backbenchers – and what the consequences of rebellion might be. Here are the headlines.

Five big stories

1. Israel-Gaza war | At least 40 Palestinians have been killed in Israeli airstrikes on a tent encampment designated as a humanitarian zone in Khan Younis, Gaza officials said early on Tuesday, in what the Israeli military said was an attack on a Hamas command centre. Several hundred thousand people have packed into the al-Mawasi camp since the beginning of the conflict.

2. UK news | An inquiry into how the former nurse Lucy Letby was able to murder babies at a neonatal unit is due to begin today . The inquiry will examine the experiences of the victims’ parents, the conduct of staff, and the effectiveness of NHS management, but will not cover questions over the safety of Letby’s convictions. Read an explainer .

3. Royal family | The Princess of Wales is “cancer free” after completing chemotherapy treatment and is planning to return to limited public engagements in the coming months, she has announced in a video message . Kensington Palace said she will return to limited public engagements in the months ahead.

4. Media | Online platforms have overtaken TV channels as the most popular sources for news in the UK, according to figures described as a “generational shift”. Some 71% of UK adults consume online news, communications regulator Ofcom said, slightly ahead of TV, which is used by 70%.

5. Cinema | James Earl Jones, the actor whose beautifully sonorous tones gave voice to Star Wars’ principal villain Darth Vader, has died aged 93 . Read Peter Bradshaw’s tribute .

In depth: ‘There is a worry Reeves has just been handed an idea by the Treasury and gone for it’

The controversy over the government’s plan to limit eligibility for the winter fuel allowance has emerged as one of the key issues in the first few months of the Labour government – both for the consequences for those who are only just above the cut-off point, and for what it indicates about the party’s unity behind Keir Starmer’s plans.

Peter Walker has a useful explainer on the proposals here . The basic facts: the payment is worth a baseline £200, rising to £300 for those over 80, and the changes will save about £1.5bn a year against an alleged “black hole” in the government’s finances of £22bn. The number of recipients will drop from more than 11 million to 1.5 million.

***

What are the arguments for and against the change?

Starmer has told the BBC that the plan is one of the “tough choices” bequeathed by the Conservatives’ mismanagement of the economy, while the health secretary, Wes Streeting, told Sky: “I’m not remotely happy … [but] this isn’t a government that ducks difficult decisions.”

Trade unions and many Labour backbenchers take a different view. Sharon Graham, the general secretary of Unite, said yesterday: “It’s completely wrong. People do not understand how a Labour government has decided to pick the pocket of pensioners and at the same time leave the richest in our society totally untouched.”

While the richest pensioners will barely notice the loss, many closer to the threshold “cliff edge” will feel a distinct change in their circumstances: the Resolution Foundation thinktank says that about 1.3 million pensioner households living in poverty after housing costs will lose the payments, and the Joseph Rowntree Foundation estimates that even with a push to get more people to sign up for pension credit for which they are eligible, only about 36% of pensioners in poverty will get the money.

One criticism Labour has faced is that “this is an option that has been offered up to a succession of chancellors over the last five years as a simple way to save some money in difficult budgets”, Jessica Elgot said. “There is a worry that Rachel Reeves has just been handed an idea by the Treasury and gone for it, and that that tells you something about their decision-making.” For more on that argument, see Jessica’s analysis piece here .

***

What is today’s vote about?

Strictly speaking, changes to the winter fuel allowance can be pushed through by statutory instrument without a vote.

But the Conservatives have used the obscure device of a “prayer motion” against the proposals which would see them annulled if passed – and while the government does not strictly have to allow parliamentary time, “they know it wouldn’t kill off the controversy to refuse it”, Jessica said. “And they think it’s probably helpful to have Labour MPs tied to having voted for it.”

The Tory motion is certain to fail, because of the size of Labour’s majority. So the politics of the vote are about the size of any rebellion on the Labour benches, and the question of what kind of disciplinary action those who vote against it will then face.

***

How strong could the rebellion be?

In his interview with the BBC on Sunday, Starmer said backbenchers should support the policy because “every Labour MP was elected in on the same mandate as I was, which was to deliver the change that we need for the country”. But that description elides important detail about the policy’s genesis.

“The argument the whips will make is that this is part of the government’s biggest priority of sorting out the economy,” Jessica said. “They’ll say that it’s very serious to go against a policy that was in the king’s speech, which makes it a confidence vote on the Labour programme for government. The reason that’s difficult to accept for the median Labour MP is that it was not in the manifesto, so they weren’t elected on it. There’s been no ‘pitch rolling’ to prepare the ground with the public.

The Times suggests (£) that more than 30 MPs are expected to rebel; the FT (£) and the Guardian both hear from MPs that the number could be smaller, but that dozens may abstain. 17 Labour MPs have already signed a parliamentary early day motion calling for an impact assessment on the plan before it is implemented, but only four raised objections in questions to Reeves last night.

“I think if the whips can confine the rebellion to the usual suspects, they would see that as a win,” Jessica said. “But if it gets bigger than that, and if a significant number of new MPs cross the line despite coming under a lot of pressure not to, that would be a very bad day for them.”

***

Will the rebels be punished?

It appears likely that anyone who votes against the government will lose the party whip, in line with the precedent established by the two-child benefit cap vote. “They had a choice then about whether to let people quietly get away with a rebellion by only making it a one-line whip, or make it as painful as possible to show your strength and maintain discipline,” Jessica said. “They have definitely shown that they’re taking the latter approach.”

Another question is whether abstention will be treated as a serious enough transgression to be punished – at least for those who have not been “paired” with a Tory who will also be absent. “They didn’t take any harsh action over abstentions on the two-child benefit cap vote,” Jessica said. “But refusing to vote against the Tories would not be seen favourably at all. So it’s possible that it will be different this time.”

***

Is a compromise possible?

It might be possible to raise the point at which the winter fuel payment is removed for pensioners – but the government argues that doing that will make it much less effective as a saving. “By setting the limit to those who receive pension credit, they make it simple to administer,” said Jessica. “They will say that including more people will mean another layer of complication and cost.” In any case, there is little chance that the government will be willing to back down on anything substantive when it has already made the issue a test of strength.

There are other steps the government could take to keep wavering MPs on side – for example, a social tariff for energy bills to keep costs down for those who are worse off, or extending eligibility for the warm homes discount, which is worth £150 per household. T

hose measures are not focused specifically on pensioners, but because they can be separated from the current row, they might be more likely to be accepted. There has been little sign, though, that the government is minded to try to woo those who go against it – and any new social tariff would take time to bring in anyhow.

“It seems much more carrot than stick, which is perhaps surprising,” Jessica said. “There’s no sense that the government is bringing in MPs and rubbing their bellies, asking them how they can make it all right. That might mean that the government comes out of this looking stronger – but in the worst case, they could have a decision to make on whether to suspend the whip for 30 more MPs. That would be an extraordinary position to be in.”

What else we’ve been reading

• Later today, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are having what is likely to be the only head-to-head debate before election day. David Smith dissects both campaigns and how their strategies are working. Nimo

• Monday brought the truly sad news that Telegraph journalist David Knowles had died at the age of 32. He will be remembered for his tireless work covering the Ukraine war on the paper’s dedicated podcast , and for being an all-round great person. Hannah J Davies, deputy editor, newsletters

• “I am the police, I am the army. I am all of them. I am all the world”: these are the words of Yitzhak Levi Filant , a settler in the West Bank who, through arbitrary and extreme violence against Palestinians in the area, has become the “warlord of the whole Jabal Salman valley”, write Julian Borger and Quique Kierszenbaum . Nimo

• I loved this roundup of striking Paralympic photography , by disabled photographers. Hannah

• Sam Wolfson’s interview with Harrison Patrick Smith peels back the layers of his alter-ego, the Dare – a club rat “poster-boy for indie sleaze” – to reveal the music nerd that carefully and meticulously crafted that personality. Nimo

Sport

Football | Kieffer Moore and Harry Wilson (above) scored early on in the pouring rain to set Wales on their way to a 2-1 Nations League victory against Montenegro. The result was the first win of Craig Bellamy’s reign as Wales manager.

Cricket | Ollie Pope admitted his side “weren’t good enough”, “weren’t up to it” and were “outplayed for the last day and a session” after Sri Lanka wrapped up victory by eight wickets in the final Test of the English summer on Monday. It was a result hailed by the touring captain, Dhananjaya de Silva, as “one of the happiest moments in my career and my life”.

Paralympics | Now that the Paralympic Games have drawn to a close, Guardian writers reflect on the highs and lows of Paris – from the crowd’s raptures as France’s blind footballers won gold against world champions Argentina to access problems for journalists in wheelchairs.

The front pages

“PM defiant on winter fuel cuts as MPs prepare to vote” is the Guardian’s splash headline, while the i says “Pensioners in poverty: 770,000 set to lose winter fuel payments”. There’s space on both those fronts for the Princess of Wales, and others lead outright with her story. “Kate tells of her relief at end of chemotherapy” says the Times . The Mirror has “Out of darkness, can come light”, and the Mail and Express run with versions of the same quote. “I want to stay cancer-free” – that’s the Daily Telegraph , while the Metro leads simply on “Kate: my cancer recovery”. The Sun runs with “My path to healing … loving and being loved”. Top story in the Financial Times is from the continent: “Draghi calls for €800bn EU industry boost to keep up with China and US”.

Today in Focus

Mehdi Hasan on how to beat Donald Trump in a debate

Guardian columnist Mehdi Hasan talks through the debate strategy needed to face an opponent like Donald Trump

Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings

The Upside

A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad

Gabrielle Enthoven was a playwright and a prolific archivist collector of playbills, programmes and props. Her collection, which includes 80,000 artefacts and ephemera, jumpstarted the largest theatrical archive in the country, which is now housed at London’s Victoria and Albert (V&A) Museum. Her name has largely been forgotten to history – until now. The V&A has named a new exhibition in her honour, Enthoven Unboxed, celebrating a century of the national archive , which is now protected by law.

Inspired by Enthoven’s nickname as the “theatrical encyclopedia”, the display is organised as an A-Z of material. It stretches across music and dance, and includes modern-day memorabilia, such as outfits worn by Paul O’Grady’s drag persona Lily Savage and a set model designed by Misty Buckley for Stormzy’s 2019 Glastonbury festival headline performance. Centring Enthoven, the exhibition opens with a long-lost portrait of her, painted by suffragette artist Ethel Wright, which was tracked down to an antique shop in 2022.

Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday

Bored at work?

And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.

• Quick crossword

• Cryptic crossword

• Wordiply