Friday briefing: Why Biden and Starmer are preparing to let Ukraine use western missiles deep inside Russia

Good morning. Keir Starmer’s visit with Joe Biden at the White House this afternoon is undoubtedly the most high-profile meeting with a foreign leader of his premiership so far – but for today, at least, the overwhelming focus is on one issue: the war in Ukraine.

At stake, after a week of intense diplomatic choreography between the two sides, is an agreement reported by the Guardian on Wednesday to lift restrictions on Ukraine’s use of western-supplied long-range missiles to attack targets deep inside Russia. The gravity of finalising that decision was underlined by comments from Vladimir Putin yesterday: any such move, he said, “would mean that Nato countries, the US, European countries, are at war with Russia”.

So how serious is that risk – and why are Ukraine’s allies now ready to supply these missiles after months of lobbying from Kyiv? For today’s newsletter, I spoke to Dan Sabbagh , the Guardian’s defence and security editor , about what’s changed – and what it could mean for the course of the war.

PS: I’m off for a few weeks now, so Nimo will be taking the lead from Monday. See you in October, and here are the headlines.

Five big stories

1. Israel-Gaza war | Israel has bombed a UN school sheltering displaced people in central Gaza, killing at least 18 people, including the shelter manager and five other Unrwa staff. The UN secretary general, António Guterres, called the attack “totally unacceptable” and said it broke international laws.

2. Health policy | Plans to ban junk food ads and to stop children buying high-caffeine energy drinks are among radical public health measures being drawn up to prevent illness and ease pressure on the NHS. Ministers are also considering enhanced powers for councils to block the development of fast food outlets near schools to tackle obesity.

3. Conservatives | Frank Hester gave the Conservatives a further £5m just before the election, according to data from the Electoral Commission , despite the party coming under pressure over his remarks about Diane Abbott that were widely condemned as racist.

4. Assisted dying | A citizens’ jury has overwhelmingly backed the legalisation of assisted dying for terminally ill people after hearing from experts over a period of eight weeks. Twenty out of 28 jurors based in England agreed the law should be changed, with seven disagreeing and one person saying they were undecided.

5. SpaceX | Two astronauts have completed the first commercial spacewalk and tested slimmed-down spacesuits designed by SpaceX, in one of the boldest attempts yet to push the boundaries of privately funded spaceflight.

In depth: ‘This is a change that could take the war to Russia in a meaningful way’

There will be no press conference after Biden and Starmer meet today, and no announcement of any change to how Storm Shadow missiles can be used. “It’s being billed as a broad strategic discussion,” Dan Sabbagh said, shortly before joining a flight to Washington with Starmer and foreign secretary David Lammy. “It’s likely that the first explicit sign we’ll have of any change is a loud ‘bang’.”

The reticence about the change that now appears close to being signed off is one piece of evidence for how sensitive a subject this is. “Ukraine has been desperate for this to happen for a long time,” Dan said. “But the White House has been grappling with whether it’s an escalatory move. Make no mistake: what you’re talking about here is a change that could take the war to Russia in a meaningful way.”

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What are Storm Shadow missiles, and why does Ukraine want them?

Storm Shadow missiles can hit targets up to 250km from their launch site – meaning that they could strike well within Russian territory. They are powerful enough to penetrate bunkers and ammunition stores and damage airfields, and they can be precisely targeted.

They were developed in an Anglo-French collaboration, and manufactured by a joint venture which also involves Italy – and using components supplied by the US. All four countries would have to sign off on any change to the conditions attached to their use, even if they are not the direct suppliers themselves. The missiles in question are expected to be supplied by Britain and France, not the US – but the New York Times reports that a decision could follow about the comparable US ATACMS missiles in the coming weeks.

Ukraine already has Storm Shadow – but it is only permitted to use the missiles within its own territory. Kyiv has been lobbying for months for that to change so that it can direct them at targets on Russian soil, arguing that it is being severely hampered in its efforts to defend itself against regular missile and glide bomb attacks launched from within Russia. While it does have drones and cruise missiles that can strike within Russia, it doesn’t have anything like enough of them to make a significant impact – and they are often intercepted.

“There is an acknowledgment in Ukraine that they aren’t going to win by slogging it out on the eastern front,” Dan said. “But they believe they have success when they are innovative, and they think they could use these weapons to make Putin think again.”

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Why are the US and UK ready to give the go-ahead now?

Throughout the war, the US and its allies have sought to strike a balance between giving Ukraine the weapons it needs to defend itself – while avoiding any move that could be viewed as a provocation, and lead to direct involvement in the war. But it appears that Kyiv’s lobbying has swayed western diplomats.

“Everyone in the west is very careful about getting out of step with the Americans,” Dan said. “But while the US has been reluctant, the British have been trying to be a bridge between Washington and Kyiv.” Over the last week, he noted, the choreography between the US and UK has been striking – with defence ministers talking to Volodymyr Zelenskiy last Friday, then CIA chief Bill Burns at a joint event with MI6 chief Richard Moore on Saturday, then US secretary of state Anthony Blinken and Lammy’s trip to see Zelenskiy in Kyiv on Wednesday (pictured above).

“We don’t know definitively what the order of the discussions was, because nobody wants the Russians to know exactly what’s going on,” he added. “But it looks like everyone was waiting for Biden, and now the US is onboard, it’s essentially a done deal.”

Some of the factors in that change: the pressure Ukraine is facing on the frontline, and fears of a very difficult winter ahead; Ukraine’s surprising cross-border incursion, which has reframed thinking on the use of weapons on Russian soil and acted as a reminder that Ukraine is at its most effective when it is changing the dynamic of the conflict; and the news that Russia has been furnished with a new batch of deadly ballistic missiles by Iran.

The Ukrainian incursion “helped with the argument that they can force the Russians into talks by hitting them where it hurts,” Dan said. “But the Russians are starting to recover their position in Kursk now, and there is a need to change the focus again.” The Iranian missiles, meanwhile, may be as important as a pretext as for their battlefield impact.

“It’s a bit of both, but I would slightly lean towards saying that it’s diplomatic cover for allowing the use of Storm Shadow in Russia,” Dan said.

David Lammy was at pains to blame Putin for any change in the battlefield calculus: “The escalator here is Putin,” he said. “Putin has escalated with the shipment of missiles from Iran.” Starmer struck a similar note after Putin’s threat of direct war yesterday: “Russia can end this conflict straight away. Ukraine has the right to self-defence.”

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What are the benefits and risks of allowing Storm Shadow to be used within Russia?

The message from the west, Dan said, has been that Ukraine needs to give a detailed plan of how the weapons would be used, and what the limits on their deployment would be. “They have said that if there’s a clear rationale for why it would be useful, maybe they can buy into it.”

In August, Politico reported that Ukrainian officials visiting Washington would present a list of long-range targets within Russia that could be hit. While the White House has argued that Russia has been moving key assets out of range, it now appears to have been persuaded that enough meaningful targets are available to have an impact.

The Nato allies may also have been emboldened by a pattern: when Putin’s red lines on operations within Russia have been crossed previously, he has not escalated the conflict.

On the other hand, permitting the use of Storm Shadow would mean allowing the use of western weapons deeper into Russian territory than ever before. And there is an inherent tension in how Ukraine believes the weapons can be effective: by degrading Russia’s ability to strike against targets in Ukraine, yes, but also by making the toll of the war more acute within Russia for its own sake.

“However many men Russia loses while it makes progress on the frontline, there is very little political cost to Putin,” Dan said. “So the question is what would make him pay attention.” Part of that is making ordinary Russians fearful of the impact. But doing that without causing a dangerous escalation is a narrow tightrope to walk.

“The theory would be that you lean very hard into aiming at military targets well within Russia, and hope that that ripples into how people in Moscow feel about the war,” Dan said.

“But if there’s a strike that has civilian casualties, say, that is potentially a big problem for the west. And whereas with a drone strike on a remote airbase it can be deniable that there was any western assistance, you can’t mistake a big boom from a Storm Shadow. So you would hope that they will deployed in a very careful way.”

What else we’ve been reading

• Tom Burgis’ long read about the decade-long legal saga that saw three oligarchs from the former Soviet Union ultimately triumph over the UK’s Serious Fraud Office is an epic piece of reporting, and a brilliantly told, deeply alarming story. Archie

• Whether I’m watching a biopic or just wondering about the etymology of a certain word, Wikipedia is the tool I reach for and I’m not the only one. Despite its ubiquity, the modern encyclopedia has been struggling for years – Stephen Harrison asks whether young people can save it. Nimo

• George Monbiot writes about “perceptionware” in his column this week , which he defines as “technology whose main purpose is to create an impression of action,” without having to really do anything to tackle the climate crisis. Nimo

• Aditya Chakrabortty has a pithy summary of the two tribes at war in the Conservative leadership contest – “As you glance across the contenders, ask yourself this: are they a moron or a bastard?” His excellent column will persuade you that these are more than throwaway insults. Archie

• Trying to get the perfect night’s sleep can feel like you’re playing an unwinnable game. Madeleine Aggeler has this helpful guide on some of the most common sleep mistakes. Nimo

Sport

Football | Mikel Arteta was saluted by the co-chair Josh Kroenke for taking “the team to another level in an Arsenal way” after he signed a new contract until 2027.

Cricket | Somerset stayed in the hunt for a first ever Vitality County Championship title with a thrilling 111-run win over Division One leaders Surrey at Taunton. Chasing 221 to win on a turning pitch, Surrey were bowled out for 111 with less than five minutes left in the game.

Golf | Suzann Pettersen has sprung a shock as Europe begin their defence of the Solheim Cup by omitting Leona Maguire for the opening foursomes session in Virginia today. The Irish golfer has the best record of Europe’s current team, having won seven of her 10 matches in the competition, but has suffered poor form in 2024.

The front pages

The Guardian leads on quotes from the prime minister ahead of his meeting with Joe Biden, with the headline “Starmer tells Putin: you started this war, you can end it any time”. The Telegraph reports comments from the foreign secretary with “Lammy: UK missiles are vital to stop Putin”, while the Times follows the same story with “Long-range missile deal means war, warns Putin”. All three run with a picture of the billionaire Jared Isaacman as he made the first commercial spacewalk yesterday, while the Sun reports on another wealthy aviator: “[Prince] George learns to fly aged 11”.

The Financial Times leads with “State finances on ‘unsustainable’ path of overspending, fiscal watchdog says”. The i reports “Junk food TV ad ban before 9pm – with total ban online in 2025”. The Mail follows the same story with “Nanny Starmer’s ban on junk food ads ‘to save NHS’”. In the Daily Express , it’s “Esther’s hope as key vote backs law change on assisted dying”.

Something for the weekend

Our critics’ roundup of the best things to watch, read and listen to right now

Music
Tindersticks: Soft Tissue
There was a brief moment where it looked as if Tindersticks’ lushly orchestrated, emotive songs might find a wide audience, but they were doomed to remain a critically acclaimed cult concern. There is a sense that status has served them well in their second act. Soft Tissue is understated enough to conjure the feeling that the whole thing was recorded somewhere dimly lit, in the small hours of the morning, but it also feels warm, satisfying, and, in places, rooted in 70s soul. Alexis Petridis

TV
In My Own Words: Alison Lapper (BBC iPlayer)
As you might expect from this formidable woman, born without arms and with shortened legs, and abandoned by her mother to a children’s home, the artist Alison Lapper (pictured above) tells her story unsentimentally and unsparingly. Almost every word is like a hammer blow to your heart. What it is truly like to live as Lapper at the moment, who is clearly only just beginning to be able to process her grief for her late son, is unimaginable. But her words and her works get us as close as we ever can. Lucy Mangan

Film
The Critic
Ian McKellen plays Jimmy Erskine, a cantankerous and much feared theatre critic in 1930s London whose open-secret nocturnal encounters in public parks with young men are beginning to discomfit his proprietor Viscount Brooke (Mark Strong). It’s a strange adaptation of the page-turning bestseller Curtain Call: screenwriter Patrick Marber changes the original plot, keeping the characters but removing a storyline about a serial killer, and reassigning the villainy elsewhere. But McKellen overrides these concerns; his glorious star quality and dash make him the only possible casting. Peter Bradshaw

Today in Focus

Creating The Spark: the kids behind 2024’s surprise summer hit

Rory Carroll and Helen Pidd meet the Kabin Crew and the Lisdoonvarna Crew – creators of a song that has notched up over a billion plays on TikTok – as they perform at the Electric Picnic music festival

Cartoon of the day | Ben Jennings

The Upside

A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad

When Tonye Faloughi-Ekezie realised that there were no children’s books that represented her family, she decided to take matters into her own hands and write one herself. Initially, she printed just two copies that showed a young girl that looked like her daughter, Simone (above left), who has Down’s syndrome. “There is a severe lack of local content that depicts the modern African family,” the Nigerian author says. “African children with special needs have very few entertainment or learning resources which have them represented in characters.”

Faloughi-Ekezie went on to print and sell a further 5,000 copies before signing with Ouida Books, and the fifth book in the series is now about to be published.

Bored at work?

And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until Monday.

• Quick crossword

• Cryptic crossword

• Wordiply