Emmys 2024 predictions: who will win and who should win?

If it feels like the Emmys just happened … you’re not wrong. The delayed 2023 ceremony was held in January and now, nine months later, the 2024 ceremony – for television that aired, in part, before the 2023 ceremony – is taking place on Sunday in Los Angeles. Will Shōgun take up the drama mantle left by Succession? Will The Bear double up on its comedy wins from January? Here are our picks for the night:

Drama series

Nominees: Shōgun, The Crown, The Morning Show, Fallout, The Gilded Age, 3 Body Problem, Mr and Mrs Smith, Slow Horses

This year’s drama competition suffers from the absence of last year’s favorites – The Last of Us, The White Lotus and, most importantly, the Emmy bastion that was Succession (RIP). It’s a testament to this relatively light year in TV that the critically maligned final season of former Emmy favorite The Crown and Apple TV+’s ridiculous, if highly watchable, The Morning Show made the cut. Same, too, for Donald Glover’s conceptually ambitious yet underwhelming re-envisioning of Mr and Mrs Smith in minor key. It’s nice to see Apple TV+’s cult hit Slow Horses get some love for its fourth season, featuring some of the UK’s best performers, and both Netflix’s 3 Body Problem (created by Game of Thrones alums David Benioff and DB Weiss) and Amazon’s Fallout over-delivered on their promise as adaptations. But Shōgun , FX’s absorbing historical epic set in feudal Japan and the night’s leader with 25 nominations, is the show most poised – and most worthy – of taking Succession’s spot. It already won 14 Creative Arts Emmys – a new record – and will most likely pick up several more during the telecast.

Related: Shōgun and Baby Reindeer set to dominate the Emmys – the second ceremony in 2024

Will win: Shōgun

Should win: Shōgun

Comedy series

Nominees: Abbott Elementary, The Bear, Curb Your Enthusiasm, Hacks, Only Murders in the Building, Palm Royale, Reservation Dogs, What We Do in the Shadows

Let’s get this out of the way: The Bear is not a comedy. The second season of the FX hit, which won six awards for its first season in January, is even less of a comedy – brilliant, stressful and even wry ( Fishes is an all-time TV episode), but not funny. It is not fair to pit The Bear against such straightforwardly, and successfully, comedic fare as network favorite Abbott Elementary, Larry David’s swan song for Curb Your Enthusiasm or the earnest charms of Only Murders in the Building . It’s especially not fair to compare it to FX’s small but beloved What We Do in the Shadows , or the excellent third season of the consistently funny Max show Hacks . But the most unfair part about the comedy category this year is that this is the first nomination for Hulu’s Reservation Dogs, a truly original , hilarious and moving black comedy about a group of Indigenous “shitass” teens in Oklahoma that merits accolades for more than just its superlative third and final season .

Will win: The Bear

Should win: Reservation Dogs

Limited series

Nominees: Baby Reindeer, Fargo, Lessons in Chemistry, Ripley, True Detective: Night Country

It’s a tepid year for limited series, with only one – Netflix breakout Baby Reindeer – becoming a bona fide hit, and a much-needed win for the streamer. Richard Gadd ’s deeply unsettling half-hour series, loosely based on his experience with an obsessive stalker and sexual assault, is the clear favorite, though Jodie Foster ’s gritty turn in True Detective: Night Country and a return to form for Fargo could take the prize. There’s an outside chance for Ripley , Netflix’s splashy, stylish and mercilessly dark take on the classic Patricia Highsmith novel, starring Andrew Scott as the sociopathic serial killer. And the most outside chance for Apple TV+’s crowd-pleasing, if bland, adaptation of Lessons in Chemistry.

Will win: Baby Reindeer

Should win: Ripley

Lead actress in a drama series

Nominees: Jennifer Aniston (The Morning Show), Carrie Coon (The Gilded Age), Maya Erskine (Mr and Mrs Smith), Anna Sawai (Shōgun), Imelda Staunton (The Crown), Reese Witherspoon (The Morning Show)

It’s an entirely new slate for best dramatic actress this year, pitting two Hollywood titans – The Morning Show’s Jennifer Aniston and Reese Witherspoon – against two queens (The Crown’s Imelda Staunton as Elizabeth II, and The Gilded Age’s Carrie Coon as New York socialite Bertha Russell). Though Maya Erskine successfully played against expectations as an awkward, melancholic spy-for-hire in Mr and Mrs Smith, and Aniston arguably deserves flowers for bringing any hint of intriguing subtlety to The Morning Show, this is Shōgun’s year. Anna Sawai, as the sly and inscrutable Lady Mariko, is the best part of the year’s best drama series.

Will win: Anna Sawai

Should win: Anna Sawai

Lead actor in a drama series

Nominees: Idris Elba (Hijack), Donald Glover (Mr and Mrs Smith), Walton Goggins (Fallout), Gary Oldman (Slow Horses), Hiroyuki Sanada (Shōgun), Dominic West (The Crown)

I have admittedly not seen Idris Elba in Hijack (did anyone see Hijack?), so I can’t comment on how he compares with Walton Goggins’s dual roles – one charming, the other villainous – in Fallout, nor to Dominic West ’s too-handsome take on 90s Prince Charles, perpetually overshadowed by Elizabeth Debicki’s Diana . Donald Glover , the brains and mumblecore-adjacent brawn behind Mr and Mrs Smith, and Gary Oldman , as the incorrigible leader of MI5 rejects in Slow Horses, each have a shot. But Hiroyuki Sanada’s commanding performance as the conniving, honor-bound Lord Toranaga was the engine of suspense for Shōgun, and he is the favorite.

Will win: Hiroyuki Sanada

Should win: Hiroyuki Sanada

Lead actress in a comedy series

Nominees: Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary), Ayo Edebiri (The Bear), Selena Gomez (Only Murders in the Building), Maya Rudolph (Loot), Jean Smart (Hacks), Kristen Wiig (Palm Royale)

This is a stacked category, with former winners Quinta Brunson, Ayo Edebiri and Jean Smart all competing again for their as-yet career-defining roles. Given that former SNL stars Maya Rudolph and Kristen Wiig ’s work in Loot and Palm Royale , respectively, went under-seen (market your shows better, Apple TV+!), and Selena Gomez ’s deadpan performance on the winsome Only Murders borders on off-putting, I’d expect one of them to win again. Smart should win for her effortlessly funny and surprising portrayal of a comic finding that late-age success is not always what it’s cracked up to be, but who has charmed more people – including Emmy voters – this year than Ayo Edebiri?

Will win: Ayo Edebiri

Should win: Jean Smart

Lead actor in a comedy series

Nominees: Matt Berry (What We Do in the Shadows), Larry David (Curb Your Enthusiasm), Steve Martin (Only Murders in the Building), Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building), Jeremy Allen White (The Bear), D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai (Reservation Dogs)

Once again, The Bear is not a comedy and I would like to stop pretending otherwise, though January’s winner Jeremy Allen White delivers another fine performance in The Bear’s second season as a perfectionist chef trying to correct his toxic boss impulses. I’d love to see a win for Reservation Dogs’ D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai’s spot-on performance as an aimless, mooning teen, which is about as likely as Matt Berry getting a win for the under-loved What We Do in the Shadows. There’s an outside chance for Larry David ’s final turn in the reliable Curb. White will probably win again, but in terms of being funny – well, nothing really touches the comedic duo of Steve Martin and Martin Short as amateur detectives in the goofy and generally pleasant Only Murders.

Will win: Jeremy Allen White

Should win: Steve Martin or Martin Short

Lead actress in a limited series

Nominees: Jodie Foster (True Detective: Night Country), Brie Larson (Lessons in Chemistry), Juno Temple (Fargo), Sofía Vergara (Griselda), Naomi Watts (Feud: Capote vs The Swans)

This is a race between veteran actors, including former Emmy mainstays Juno Temple (three nominations for Ted Lasso, never won) and Sofia Vergara (four nominations for Modern Family, never won). Oscar-nominated actor Naomi Watts , as Feud’s pre-eminent swan Babe Paley, has an outside chance along with Temple and Oscar winner Brie Larson ’s spikier-than-expected turn in Lessons in Chemistry. But this is mostly a race between Vergara, who transformed physically and pushed herself dramatically to play the Colombian drug lord , and Foster ’s critically acclaimed turn as a dysfunctional, abrasive police chief in True Detective’s comeback (of sorts).

Will win: Jodie Foster

Should win: Jodie Foster

Lead actor in a limited series

Nominees: Matt Bomer (Fellow Travelers), Richard Gadd (Baby Reindeer), Jon Hamm (Fargo), Tom Hollander (Feud: Capote vs the Swans), Andrew Scott (Ripley)

Another difficult category to predict – Scott, who should have but did not win an Emmy for Fleabag’s Hot Priest, is the frontrunner for his unnerving turn as Tom Ripley, in a series outshone by Netflix’s Baby Reindeer; Gadd, the latter show’s writer and star, is more likely to get a writing prize, as Michaela Coel did in 2021 for I May Destroy You . Never discount Mad Men’s beloved Jon Hamm , for a menacing turn in Fargo, though I’m rooting for Fellow Travelers ’ Matt Bomer, for his portrayal of a longtime closeted gay man over several decades in government service.

Will win: Andrew Scott

Should win: Matt Bomer

Best talk series

Nominees: The Daily Show, Jimmy Kimmel Live!, Late Night with Seth Meyers, The Late Show with Stephen Colbert

This is the second outing for this category, a spinoff of “variety sketch series” that lets the late-night shows compete without the Emmy-dominant Last Week Tonight . The Daily Show won in January for Trevor Noah’s final year at the desk but, with a rotating cast of guest hosts (even if one of those hosts is Jon Stewart), the award is up for grabs again. I expect Seth Meyers ’s brand of gen X-pleasing, resistance-era comedy to appeal to Emmy voters, though I’d argue that Stephen Colbert remains the best late-night host, both for interviews and for processing the day’s top stories.

Will win: Late Night with Seth Meyers

Should win: The Late Show with Stephen Colbert

Scripted variety series

Nominees: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver, Saturday Night Live

As with the late-night shows, it’s not fair to compare Last Week Tonight with Saturday Night Live … but as one does its thing with much more consistency, and with more high-minded results, it would be a shock if John Oliver ’s show didn’t win its ninth consecutive Emmy.

Will win: Last Week Tonight

Should win: Last Week Tonight

Supporting actress in a drama series

Nominees: Christine Baranski (The Gilded Age), Nicole Beharie (The Morning Show), Elizabeth Debicki (The Crown), Greta Lee (The Morning Show), Lesley Manville (The Crown), Karen Pittman (The Morning Show), Holland Taylor (The Morning Show)

The absence of The White Lotus this year allows this to be Morning Show-off, with touches of The Crown and its American cousin, The Gilded Age. British stage star Lesley Manville is likely to become The Crown’s final Emmy win, though I’m pulling for Greta Lee’s enjoyably strange performance as network exec Stella Bak, easily one of the better parts within the Morning Show mess.

Will win: Lesley Manville

Should win: Greta Lee

Supporting actor in a drama series

Nominees: Tadanobu Asano (Shōgun), Billy Crudup (The Morning Show), Mark Duplass (The Morning Show), Jon Hamm (The Morning Show), Takehiro Hira (Shōgun), Jack Lowden (Slow Horses) Jonathan Pryce (The Crown)

Last year was all Succession and The White Lotus, so momentum may swing back to thrice nominated and one-time winner (in 2020) Billy Crudup, who is actually the best part of The Morning Show. Crudup’s Cory Ellison is a chaos agent, though not as truly unpredictable, nor as comedically prideful, as Tadanobu Asano’s standout performance as Lord Kashigi Yabushige in Shōgun.

Will win: Billy Crudup

Should win: Tadanobu Asano

Supporting actress in a comedy series

Nominees: Carol Burnett (Palm Royale), Liza Colón-Zayas (The Bear), Hannah Einbinder (Hacks), Janelle James (Abbott Elementary), Sheryl Lee Ralph (Abbott Elementary), Meryl Streep (Only Murders in the Building)

It could be Liza Colón-Zayas’s time for her fan-favorite turn on the Bear, or maybe the Emmys will celebrate living legend Carol Burnett (this is her 24th Emmy; the Golden Globes have their own Carol Burnett award). But it should be Hannah Einbinder as the perfectly calibrated foil to the indomitable Jean Smart on Hacks.

Will win: Liza Colón-Zayas

Should win: Hannah Einbinder

Supporting actor in a comedy series

Nominees: Lionel Boyce (The Bear), Paul W Downs (Hacks), Ebon Moss-Bachrach (The Bear), Paul Rudd (Only Murders in the Building), Tyler James Williams (Abbott Elementary), Bowen Yang (Saturday Night Live)

This is the one place where I will vouch for The Bear in the comedy categories: last year’s winner Ebon Moss-Bachrach is genuinely heartwarming, heartbreaking and funny as the loud and irascible Cousin Richie, who memorably reforms into a maître d’ in season two. He deserves the shout.

Will win: Ebon Moss-Bachrach

Should win: Ebon Moss-Bachrach

Supporting actress in a limited series

Nominees: Dakota Fanning (Ripley), Lily Gladstone (Under the Bridge), Jessica Gunning (Baby Reindeer), Aja Naomi King (Lessons in Chemistry), Diane Lane (Feud: Capote vs the Swans), Nava Mau (Baby Reindeer), Kali Reis (True Detective: Night Country)

Netflix breakout Baby Reindeer simply would not work without a mentally unwell stalker who is equally pitiable and worthy of compassion as she is creepy and unhinged, and British actress Jessica Gunning delivered as the delusional Martha. Though the show faces controversy – including a lawsuit – from the woman who claims to be Martha’s inspiration (and disputes the show’s events), Gunning’s performance is undeniable, and she’s all but a lock.

Will win: Jessica Gunning

Should win: Jessica Gunning

Related: Missing in action: the biggest surprises and snubs from this year’s Emmy nominations

Supporting actor in a limited series

Nominees: Jonathan Bailey ( Fellow Travelers), Robert Downey Jr (The Sympathizer), Tom Goodman-Hill (Baby Reindeer), John Hawkes (True Detective: Night Country) , Lamorne Morris (Fargo), Lewis Pullman (Lessons in Chemistry), Treat Williams (Feud: Capote vs the Swans)

This year’s limited series race is mostly a mystery, with potential nods for RDJ’s five-character turn in the under-appreciated The Sympathizer, the late Treat Williams as Feud’s Bill Paley or Tom Goodman-Hill’s sickening one-episode turn in Baby Reindeer. But Jonathan Bailey , who won a Critics Choice award for Fellow Travelers, is the deserving frontrunner for his moving portrayal of a gay political staffer over several turbulent decades in Showtime’s romantic drama.

Will win: Jonathan Bailey

Should win: Jonathan Bailey