‘Utter disillusionment’: Kashmir sees first election since 2014 as chance to reject Modi

For the first time in almost 40 years, Bashir Ahmad Thokar, a 75-year-old apple farmer, cannot wait to cast his vote. In the Himalayan valleys and mountains of the Indian region of Kashmir, elections have long been deemed a tainted affair, marred by rigging, boycotts and violence. But as Kashmiris go to the polls on Wednesday to vote for their first regional assembly in a decade, this time there has been a palpable buzz.

“This is the first time since 1987 that the people of Kashmir are excited about the elections,” says Thokar.

The election, which will continue in phases until 1 October, is being deemed the most significant in the region for years. It is not only the first time since 2014 that Kashmiris will be able to vote for their own regional representatives, but is also the first vote since the region was stripped of its statehood by prime minister Narendra Modi.

It was August 2019 that Modi unilaterally revoked Article 370 – which had given Kashmir its own special form of autonomy since independence – and brought it under the complete control of the central government. A lengthy and oppressive crackdown followed . Thousands of additional troops were brought in; hundreds, including prominent politicians, were jailed ; and the internet was cut for over 18 months, the longest blackout ever recorded.

Related: Hi-tech, strategic: new wave of Kashmir militant attacks before elections stuns Indian forces

For Modi’s Bharatiya Janata party (BJP), taking full control of Kashmir had been a central pledge of their Hindu nationalist agenda for years, and it was celebrated by many in the establishment. But while Kashmiris on the ground opposed the move, few were able to protest or openly criticise it. Anyone seen to be involved in dissent was routinely harassed and detained by police, often under draconian anti-terrorism laws , and the freedom of the local press was systematically crushed , with many journalists among those detained .

‘A crossroads in our history’

Voters in the state described the upcoming polls as an opportunity to finally get back their voice, after years of having their democratic rights silenced. The Modi government had resisted holding the polls but it was finally mandated by the supreme court earlier this year, with a September deadline.

The BJP had initially claimed they would “sweep” the election yet widespread resentment has left them contesting less than a third of the 90 assembly seats, mostly focused in the only Hindu-majority area of Jammu, and they are expected to win fewer than in the 2014 polls.

“This election is important because there is utter disillusionment amongst people,” said Iltija Mufti, daughter of former chief minister Mehbooba Mufti, whose party was once in alliance with the BJP. “We are at a crossroads in our history, people have not felt such deep alienation before. They feel disempowered and dispossessed.”

Historically, Kashmiris have reason to be wary of local elections. The region has been disputed between India and Pakistan since 1947, when the two countries gained their independence, and three wars have been fought over it. Each side currently governs part of it while China controls a portion in the east.

Related: ‘Bulldozer politics’: Modi’s demolition drive fuels Muslims’ fears in Kashmir

It was in 1987 that the Indian government, fearful of the sensitive region falling into the hands of those sympathetic to Pakistan, was accused of meddling in Kashmir’s elections to prevent pro-independence candidates from taking power. In response, a coalition of popular parties boycotted the elections. Several leaders crossed the border into Pakistan, where they went on to launch an armed revolt against India. It plunged the region into waves of violence and militancy from the 1990s onwards that continue to this day.

This time, however, the election has not been met with calls for boycotts, even by separatist and terrorist outfits. Instead, candidates from a multitude of parties, including those who favour greater independence for Kashmir, are taking part and many believe it could be the highest turnout in years. Political rallies have been packed, with many people turning up to demand that family members detained under authoritarian laws since 2019’s crackdown are released.

New Delhi has been projecting the enthusiasm as a vindication of their policies and an indication that Kashmiris have given up their aspiration for independence.

“The way people are coming forward in huge numbers, aspiring to cast their vote, speaks about the success of India’s democracy and India’s constitution,” said Nirmal Singh, senior BJP leader and former deputy chief minister of the region. “We have been able to finish terrorism … What could not be done in seventy years has been achieved in the last five years under the vision of prime minister Narendra Modi.”

A vote against Modi’s ‘assault on Kashmiris’

Yet on the ground in the villages and towns, another narrative has been playing out. Many fear that the Modi government is trying to change the Muslim-majority demography of Kashmir, after changes brought in after 2019 allowed outsiders to buy property and invest in the region for the first time.

Many also argue that the promised investment and prosperity have yet to materialise, with opponents alleging unemployment remains at a 45-year-high. The Modi government’s claims to have crushed the militancy and brought peace to the region have been undermined by a recent surge in attacks – carried out by a new tranche of highly trained militants purportedly from Pakistan – which have killed almost 200 security personnel and over 350 civilians since 2020.

“On the one hand, Modi has been treating the higher voter turnout as a referendum for his decisions of 2019, but on the other hand, local parties also see it as a vote against his policies,” says Sheikh Showkat Hussain, a Kashmiri political analyst.

“People feel that by voting they may finally be able to put up some barriers to the onslaught that has been unleashed upon them since 2019.”

Mohammad Rafiq, 45, a shopkeeper in the town of Bijbehara, was among those intending to vote for the first time, to send a direct message to the Modi government. In the autumn of 1993, his brother was among the 51 civilians who were killed by India’s border security force after they opened fire on protesters.

“When I saw the bloodied body of my brother, I promised that day to myself that I would never participate in these sham elections,” said Rafiq. “But now there is such a major assault on our identity that I am going to vote to keep the BJP away.”

Voters appear to be rejecting the traditional parties, some of whom once aligned with the BJP, in favour of independent candidates or those aligned with groups that have been critical of New Delhi’s Kashmir policies. Analysts believe the BJP has allowed this flurry of independent candidates in a bid to undermine support for the opposition coalition, which includes India’s main opposition Congress party and Kashmir’s oldest regional party, National Conference.

One of the most prominent independent voices has been Abdul Rashid Sheikh – popularly known as Engineer Rashid – a firebrand politician who had been held in Delhi’s Tihar jail since August 2019 on terror-funding charges. He already won a parliamentary seat, contested from behind bars, during the national elections in June and is now fielding several independent candidates in the assembly polls.

After the courts granted him bail in September, thousands of supporters have thronged to his rallies. “People are coming out in huge numbers to protest against Modi’s policies. Their vote is against BJP’s assault on Kashmiris,” said Rashid, who is not only promising to get Kashmir’s autonomy restored but to “solve the Kashmir issue” once and for all.

Speaking at an election rally on the weekend, Modi boasted that “the changes in the region in the last decade are nothing short of a dream”. Yet at the surrounding village gatherings and political meetings, the same fiery slogans raised by Kashmiris for years are once again being heard. In response to the rallying cries of “hum kya chaahte?” [What do we want?] , there is just one response: “ Azadi ” [freedom]”.