Could Saudi-Iran talks prevent Lebanon from turning into a second Gaza?

The Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, will meet his counterpart in Saudi Arabia to discuss the growing threat of an Israeli attack on Tehran and what steps, if any, the Iranian-backed Hezbollah group in Lebanon can take to secure a ceasefire in the face of growing evidence that the US supports Israel’s efforts to dismantle Hezbollah and force it to disarm.

In what is becoming a multifront war, Iran and Saudi Arabia are probably the two key regional players. Araghchi, who has already been to Beirut and Damascus, has been playing his cards close to his chest but he is seen as critical to any decision that Hezbollah needs to step back, regroup and prevent Lebanon from turning into a second Gaza.

So far, a defiant Hezbollah, backed by Iran, has denied it is reeling from the Israeli assassination of its leadership. Although it has said it is willing to listen to ceasefire discussions led by its Lebanese political allies, it has not formally said it is willing to give up on its demand for a “simultaneous ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon”.

Lebanon has been a past source of tension between Tehran and Riyadh, with Saudi Arabia wanting to see Iranian and Hezbollah influence curtailed. But Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister, faces a challenge. He is set on a long-term path to improve relations with Iran and wants the US to do more to recognise the twin dangers of Israeli escalation, including in Lebanon, and a major attack on Iran. At the same time, Riyadh thinks Hezbollah has been the block to the formation of a functioning state.

He is also deeply frustrated by Israel’s refusal to support a Palestinian state. Saudi diplomats pointed to remarks by Basen Naim, the head of Hamas’s political division, that “if we have a chance to have a sovereign Palestinian state we will cooperate and be part of this”. The remarks revive a previous Hamas indication that it could accept a two-state solution.

Much of the Iranian-Saudi talks will focus on how to respond to the Israeli invasion of Lebanon, and whether Iran wishes to revive a diplomatic path to ease the crisis or thinks Hezbollah can recover militarily.

Saudi Arabia was instrumental in backing a call for a 21-day ceasefire unveiled at the UN on 25 September, supported by the US, France and the UK. The three weeks were designed to give space for Lebanese politics to elect a new president and possibly for Hezbollah to agree to decouple the Lebanon crisis from Gaza. Hezbollah has been firing rockets into Israel from Lebanon since 8 October last year in support of Hamas in Gaza.

Lebanese politicians opposed to Hezbollah are now caught between, on the one hand, wanting Israel to stop the bombardment and agree a ceasefire and, on the other, a growing anger that Hezbollah is not willing to face reality and make necessary political concessions, including over the presidency.

Lebanese politics has been deadlocked since the 2022 elections led to a parliamentary make-up that in effect provides Hezbollah and its allies with a veto over the choice of a president. A two-thirds majority or 86 seats is required for a president to be elected for a six-year term. Successive rounds of voting in 2022 and 2023 led to no agreement. The US is now pushing for the election of Joseph Aoun, the current commander general of the Lebanese army.

Auon’s election would be the first stage to strengthening the official state armed forces and reducing the military role of Hezbollah, leading to the organisation’s disarmament as set out in UN resolutions passed in 2004 and 2006.

Britain and the US are both willing to provide funds to strengthen the army as part of an effort to weaken Hezbollah and reduce Iranian influence. The UK has previously funded watchtowers on the Syrian border that may slow the flow of arms to Hezbollah.

The ceasefire plan was dealt a blow 48 hours after it was launched in New York when the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, rejected its terms and then, without consulting the US, assassinated Nasrallah in Beirut.

The US appears to have buried the ceasefire for now, with a US state department spokesperson endorsing Israel’s actions, saying: “Nothing that we have seen as of yet leads us to conclude that they are doing anything other than targeting a terrorist organisation, Hezbollah, that had launched strikes and was continuing to launch strikes against Israel, including in the last few days.”

The spokesperson added: “We do ultimately want to see a ceasefire and a diplomatic resolution, but we do think it’s appropriate that Israel, at this point, is bringing terrorists to justice and trying to push Hezbollah back from the border.” He described Israel’s actions as a limited incursion.