Can Indiana football's Curt Cignetti take team to new heights? Bold predictions for 2024

BLOOMINGTON — My bold predictions for Indiana football in 2023 were terrible.

It's as simple as that.

Here’s a quick refresher: I predicted that Indiana would have a 1,000-yard receiver (nope), Jaylin Lucas would set multiple program records (big time nope), IU would have multiple players drafted (no again) and Nicolas Radicic would be the program’s most impactful true freshman (no, but he did make a 21-yard field goal).

The one I came closest to getting right was the first one.

More: 8 takeaways from Indiana football’s 2024 fall camp

I focused mostly on Cam Camper and E.J. Williams having breakout potential, but Donaven McCulley was the receiver who took the starring role in the offense. He closed out the 2023 season averaging 84 yards over the team’s final five games and that pace over the course of a full year would have pushed him past 1,000-yards.

He might have reached the milestone if IU hadn’t played musical chairs at quarterback for the first half of the year.

Lucas did tie one program record with his third-career kickoff return and the 161 kickoff return yards he had against Purdue rank in the top five all-time, but he struggled in his brief stint at punt returner and barely touched the ball on offense down the stretch.

Can I do any better this year? Probably? It would be hard to do any worse.

Indiana will have two 1,000-yard receivers this season

I’m doubling down on this one.

Indiana has a returning 1,000-yard receiver in Elijah Sarratt, who accomplished the feat for JMU last year, and McCulley was probably the best receiver in the Big Ten down the stretch. His performance against Illinois — the secondary was flagged five times in coverage against him — was incredible.

The way McCulley has responded to Cignetti’s tough love approach is encouraging as well. The coach has a long history molding top collegiate receivers going back to his days at Alabama and wants his newest pupil to reach that level.

I think Cignetti’s focus on adding talent at IU's skill positions will fuel their productivity. It’s going to be hard for defenses to focus on double-teaming Sarratt or McCulley with so many capable passing catching options (Myles Price and Zach Horton to name two of them) and an improved run game.

More: 8 takeaways from Indiana football’s 2024 fall camp

Kurtis Rourke has Indiana football’s most productive season ever at quarterback

It’s not the highest bar to climb since IU only has four quarterbacks in program history to throw for 3,000-plus yards and never had a quarterback throw for more than 30 touchdowns. Former Indiana quarterback Nate Suffield threw the most passing yards in program history (3,573) in 2015 and Kellen Lewis set the passing touchdown record (28) in 2007.

Rourke nearly accomplished both those feats in 2022 when he won MAC Offensive Player of the Year by throwing for 3,257 yards (69.1%) and 25 passing touchdowns.

While Rourke is jumping up a level in competition, Cignetti’s recent history shows he knows how to get the most out of his quarterbacks.

He had four different starting quarterbacks at James Madison from 2019-23 (excluding the COVID spring season) and the group averaged 3,394 yards (68.0%) and 33 touchdowns. Former JMU quarterback Cole Johnson set program records in 2021 in passing yards (3,779), touchdowns (41) and completions (287).

Rourke’s build, accuracy and arm strength as well as his lengthy resume should set him up for success in Bloomington.

He will also benefit from a trio of easy non-conference games that will help him pad his stats a bit and allow him to struggle against power house opponents like Ohio State and Michigan later in the season, but still post eye-popping stats.

Indiana football wins its first bowl game in more than three decades

I don’t think Indiana getting to six wins is all that bold of a prediction. The Hoosiers should sweep their non-conference games with ease and that puts them halfway to qualifying for the postseason. The conference schedule is also significantly easier than it has been in recent years even though it still features Ohio State and Michigan.

Indiana twice reached a bowl game under Tom Allen, but lost one-possession games in the 2020 Gator Bowl to Tennessee and the 2021 Outback Bowl to Ole Miss.

I think what would give the Hoosiers an advantage in any potential bowl game is that they have a roster that would be motivated to actually play in the game. That’s not all that common these days and all those JMU players that Cignetti brought over clearly want to set him up for success.

What would be a better parting gift for their coach than a bowl win in his first season?

Michael Niziolek is the Indiana beat reporter for The Bloomington Herald-Times. You can follow him on X @michaelniziolek and read all his coverage by clicking here .

This article originally appeared on The Herald-Times: Can Indiana football's Curt Cignetti take team to new heights? Bold predictions for 2024