Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifts Georgia, Minnesota, New Hampshire toward Democrats

A leading election handicapper on Wednesday shifted its ratings of three states in the presidential race in favor of Democrats as Vice President Harris surges in the polls against former President Trump.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved its rating of Minnesota and New Hampshire from “Leans Democratic” to “Likely Democratic” and Georgia from “Leans Republican” to “Toss-up” on Wednesday, noting Harris has widely performed better than President Biden had before he dropped out of the race last month.

“In the few weeks that Vice President Kamala Harris has emerged as Democrats’ standard bearer, she has ‘reset’ the electoral map to some degree, as she has polled better than President Biden was performing before he ended his campaign,” a post explaining the change states.

The post adds that Harris has at least managed to “stop the bleeding” since Biden’s poor debate performance against Trump in late June. It says multiple national polling aggregators place her at least slightly ahead of Trump in a match-up, while Biden was generally trailing the former president before he dropped out.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball initially moved Minnesota — the home state of Harris’s running mate, Gov. Tim Walz — to only leaning in favor of the Democrats given its analysis that the state was only somewhat more left-leaning than Michigan, which is rated as a toss-up. But a few polls that have recently come out, including a Fox News survey where she led by 6 points and a KSTP/SurveyUSA poll where she led by 10, make the state appear likely to continue to vote bluer than the country overall.

The post states that Walz’s inclusion on the ticket only makes it more firmly in the “likely Democrat” category, even though running mates usually only deliver small homestate advantages.

The Crystal Ball notes that New Hampshire voted most closely to Minnesota in 2020, and polling has shown the state with similar results from four years ago. Polling has shown Harris returning Democrats to more of the leads they have traditionally had in the Granite State after one poll right before Biden dropped out had Trump just ahead.

Regarding the shift on Georgia, the post states that Biden’s path to victory while he was in the race seemed to go through the Midwest, as several Sun Belt states were getting away from him. States in that region like Arizona and Nevada stayed toss-ups, but Georgia moved to lean Republican in June.

Since launching her candidacy, Harris has outperformed Biden’s numbers, and Trump has brought back old wounds in attacking Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R), both of whom are popular in the state. Sabato’s said this makes the state more “legitimately competitive” than it was with Biden in the race.

“In terms of the overall trajectory of the 2024 race, there has been no shortage of whiplash since late June. The fast-breaking developments since the debate have been a lot for those of us who follow politics for a living to process, let alone for voters who are just tuning into the campaign,” the post states. “Perhaps by Labor Day, when both of the party conventions will have concluded, the nature of the race will be less fluid. But for now, we feel its warranted to move at least a few states back in the Democrats’ direction.”