Tropical Storm Ernesto expected to develop, threaten Puerto Rico

Tropical Storm Ernesto is forecast to develop in the eastern Caribbean on Tuesday and bring severe weather to Puerto Rico, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Forecasters predict Ernesto will be declared a tropical storm overnight Tuesday as it reaches the Leeward Islands, and it is expected to make landfall on Puerto Rico late Tuesday. The U.S. Virgin Islands are also at risk, forecasters said.

“The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm as it reaches the Leeward Islands. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for most of these islands, where tropical storm conditions are expected to begin late tonight,” the National Hurricane Center said Monday in a forecast advisory.

“Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash flooding and mudslides in areas of the Leeward and Virgin Islands by later today into Wednesday, and over Puerto Rico late Tuesday into Thursday,” it continued.

Puerto Rico is expected to see 3 to 6 inches of rain, with up to 10 inches on parts of the island. The Virgin Islands are likely to see 4 to 6 inches of rain, according to the forecast.

Tropical storm warnings have been issued for the islands of Saint Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Guadeloupe, Saint Martin, Saint Barthélemy, Sint Maarten, U.S. Virgin Islands, British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra.

The storm is forecast to become a hurricane, though not until after it crosses Puerto Rico and curves northward into the Atlantic Ocean, potentially moving towards Bermuda.

If the storm strengthens as predicted, it will become the fifth named storm of the year.Forecasters believe 2024 will be an above average hurricane season.