Longtime GOP pollster Frank Luntz said in a Wednesday interview he is seeing a “broad shift” in the 2024 polls toward Vice President Harris as she rides her “intensity advantage” and as former President Trump increasingly commits “political suicide.”
Luntz said Harris’s recent enthusiasm boost has tapped into part of the electorate that might not have otherwise voted in November had President Biden remained the party’s nominee. He predicted that could have a downballot effect, speaking in an interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”
“She’s bringing out people who are not interested in voting for either Trump or Biden. So the entire electoral pool has changed,” Luntz said. “And if it continues in this direction, you have to start to consider Democrats winning the Senate and Democrats winning the House.
“The actual people who are participating — she’s got intensity now. She’s got an intensity advantage. She’s got a demographic advantage. And I haven’t seen anything like this happen in 30 days in my lifetime,” Luntz continued.
Asked how significant that margin of extra Harris voters might be to the overall electoral pool, Luntz said, “1 percent, maybe 2. That’s it. But that’s enough.”
Luntz suggested there are three components — attributes, issues and conditions of the country — that build a candidate’s support, adding, “You shift the demographics, and you shift the entire outcome.”
“The issues and conditions favor Donald Trump. He should be winning this election. But the attributes are so much in Harris’s favor that he’s not.”
“I’m trying to do a focus group tonight with undecided voters under the age of 27 for a major news outlet. And I can’t recruit young women to this, because they don’t exist as undecided voters,” he said.
Luntz described a broad shift in voters toward Harris driven by the appeal of her attributes — particularly among disillusioned young adults and women.
“The people who are ‘undecided’ have all collapsed towards Harris. The people who are ‘weak Trump’ have all collapsed towards ‘undecided.’ It’s this broad shift,” Luntz said.
Luntz also noted that Trump, at times, appears to be undermining the appeal of his own attributes. He pointed to a recent moment when Trump praised billionaire business owner Elon Musk for firing union workers who went on strike to protest for better working conditions.
“Why is Donald Trump saying publicly, I want to fire the same people that he’s getting now, still getting, union members?” Luntz said. “It’s ridiculous. It’s as though he’s lost control.”
“And I know that there are billionaires who watch this show who are spending a lot of money on Donald Trump, and they don’t understand why he’s committing political suicide,” Luntz said.
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