A possible October surprise? Biden resigns and Harris becomes president

President Biden was fed a series of gentle softballs over the weekend by Robert Costa of CBS News. He mumbled through his responses in what felt like an exit interview.

After his debate debacle at the end of June, Biden publicly and privately stated that he was staying in the presidential race. It would take the “Lord Almighty” telling him to step aside for him to go, he told George Stephanopoulos. He held a press conference on July 11 that seemed to assuage concerns by some in his party. And then, 10 days later, he dropped out, in a letter posted to his social media accounts.

In the end, it didn’t take the Lord Almighty — unless that’s Biden’s nickname for former Speaker Nancy Pelosi. In a media tour for her new book, Pelosi has been careful not to take too much credit for Biden’s withdrawal, but she did give a bit of a window into the process with Ezra Klein of the New York Times. She told Klein that Biden’s note to Democrats in Congress that he was staying in “didn’t sound like Joe Biden,” hinting that he was pressured into sending it. And she made it clear that the only thing that mattered was beating Trump.

As Biden noted to Costa, he ultimately left the race because he didn’t want to be a distraction, citing his bad poll numbers. But if he’s not up for running for president, how is he capable of actually being president right now?

Pelosi and her fellow Democratic elite operatives successfully waged a pressure campaign focused on reputational blackmail to push Biden out of the race. It worked.

But they also have a final lever that can be pulled before Election Day — a true “break glass in case of emergency” strategy. They could force Biden to resign as president, and elevate Kamala Harris to the Oval Office so that she can run as the incumbent.

Now, while the scenario may seem a little far-fetched, I’ve got a decent predictive track record in this column during the chaos of 2024. In February, I laid out how the Democrats and media could work together to push Biden out of the race, and later wrote specifically how the debate could be the catalyst that puts the plan into motion. I also predicted that Trump would pick JD Vance as his running mate. (They haven’t all been winners — in January I called 2024 “the Court TV election,” and while Trump’s and Hunter’s trials have been relevant, they haven’t been the overriding storyline they looked to be at the beginning of the year.)

So imagine it’s a couple weeks after the Democratic National Convention, and the Harris glow is starting to wear off. The vibes campaign could only last so long before reality set in. Trump and Harris are neck-and-neck, and Trump is trending in several key swing states.

“I have no reason to think President Biden will step down, unless he has absolutely no choice,” Mark Halperin, editor-in-chief and host of 2WAY, told me. “He wants to run through the tape. Well, at least, walk purposefully if haltingly through the tape.”

So perhaps Biden is convinced to exit the White House with the promise of a long, ceremonial celebration of his life and career on the way out. He could announce he’s resigning Sept. 1 to bury it before the Labor Day weekend, or on Sept. 13 to bury it after the ABC debate. He could give “two weeks’ notice” and get the long runway of puff pieces and retirement pageantry.

“I think this very much falls into the category of things that one might be able to take advantage of if events present themselves, but would be impossible to plan for a reliable outcome,” Chris Stirewalt of NewsNation told me. “But it may not matter what Democrats want. If Biden continues to have public struggles, he may be forced to go. It could be a scenario like the one we watched play out in July.”

A Biden exit in September or October would be particularly useful as a distraction from the race. The establishment media would get sidetracked with the Biden resignation, as well as the next phase — the introduction of President Kamala Harris. The history associated with the first female president, plus the bevy of stories about what it even means to have this massive transition, would allow for weeks of relatively substance-free coverage.

And what would Harris gain from being elevated to the top job? First, she’d get to run as an incumbent, which has historically helped presidential candidates. And she can make the case that she’s just getting started in the job and needs the vote of America to begin her real work.

She also could find herself in a crisis, however minor — real or manufactured — during the final weeks of the race, in mid-to-late October, that allows her to shine. She could showcase her prowess in her new role of president and ride it into Election Day — with the compliant Acela media, full of partisan journalists who want to keep Trump away from the White House, by her side.

The last-minute presidential swap then plays well for the Democrats on two distinct but related levels. A President Harris could have a leg up over a Vice President Harris, even marginally. It surely wouldn’t hurt. And any little bit helps in what will likely be a very close election.

“She certainly would make history adding to her resume that she would be the first woman president in American history,” Halperin told me. “Perhaps for some voters, it would be more appealing to vote for an incumbent, but I don’t think the upside is all that great.”

But the whole final chaotic twist in the 2024 electoral cycle would provide a brilliant diversion from whatever policy and substantive discussions and debates are bubbling up in those final few weeks. What better misdirection for the public than to ensure the story that’s on people’s minds in the days leading up Nov. 5 is not the economy or immigration, but the excitement of a new president installed at the last minute?

So don’t be shocked if this cycle’s October Surprise is a new occupant in the White House — even before we get ourselves to Jan. 20, 2025.

Steve Krakauer, a NewsNation contributor, is the author of “Uncovered: How the Media Got Cozy with Power, Abandoned Its Principles, and Lost the People” and editor and host of the Fourth Watch newsletter and podcast.