Election forecaster moves North Carolina presidential race to ‘toss-up’

A leading election forecaster shifted its rating of the presidential race for North Carolina to “toss-up,” marking another gain for Vice President Harris’s campaign.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball said Tuesday that it was moving North Carolina from the “leans Republican” column to a toss-up, as support for Harris builds not only in the Tar Heel State but across the country.

According to the election handicapper, North Carolina now joins Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia and Pennsylvania as toss-up states.

President Biden won all of those states in 2020 except for North Carolina. They have been a critical focus of the 2024 election cycle, as they were each decided by 3 points or less last election.

“This is the first time this cycle that we have moved any electoral votes away from the Republican column into the Toss-up column,” analysts wrote.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball noted that there has been a “longer-running argument” that North Carolina would be more in play for Democrats than Georgia in this election.

North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D) was considered to be a potential running mate for Harris, and the two have campaigned together recently.

The forecasters said Harris is polling better in North Carolina than she is in Georgia, but they believe the Peach State will swing more left this November “despite the polls.”

The larger Black population and Democratic support in Atlanta outweighs North Carolina’s growth in recent years, they said.

“All that said, both states are close enough — and similar enough to the other key swing states in this election — that we don’t think it makes sense to rate one as Toss-up and the other as Leans Republican anymore,” they wrote. “Hence our rating change today.”

North Carolina is still the “reddest” swing state of the bunch, the analysts say, and they are skeptical it could turn blue for Harris, but that could change in the next two months.

“Now that the election is getting closer and we are almost past the conventions, the polls probably should carry more weight, imperfect instruments though they are,” they wrote.

If Harris can maintain or build upon the momentum generated during the state of her campaign, “it may be that one or more of these ‘Magnificent Seven,’ to borrow the famous movie title, won’t be Toss-ups anymore.”

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