Whether Vice President Harris or former President Trump is elected America’s next president, their debate last week surely increased the sense of vulnerability surrounding two of America’s most threatened friends and quasi-allies: Ukraine and Taiwan. Foreign policy was not a major focus of the discussion, but what was said — and left unsaid — by the candidates was cause for concern.
On Ukraine, Trump noted the historical connection between President Biden’s disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, which Harris explicitly supported , and Vladimir Putin’s decision to launch his second invasion of Ukraine . “These people did the worst withdrawal and in my opinion the most embarrassing moment in the history of our country,” said the former president. “That’s why Russia attacked Ukraine. Because they saw how incompetent she and her boss are.”
As for what to do about Ukraine now, Trump repeated his usual refrain: “I’ll get the war with Ukraine and Russia ended. If I’m president-elect, I’ll get it done before even becoming president.” In the past, he has said he will do it within 24 hours . Either compressed schedule suggests he will be giving ultimatums to one party or the other to make territorial or sovereignty concessions.
But the only leader in the conflict that Washington has any real leverage over is President Volodymyr Zelensky, who is dependent on the U.S. for most of Ukraine’s weapons, intelligence and diplomatic support. If Trump is elected and demands that Ukraine permanently surrender territory to Russia, it will be a grievous offense, not only to Ukraine but to the entire international order established after World War II. Whatever portion of Ukraine Putin is allowed to retain would reward Russia for its aggression. Zelensky’s war aim instead is to reverse it and see Russia punished for its war crimes .
Moderator David Muir asked Trump directly at last week’s debate, “Do you want Ukraine to win this war?” After Trump repeated his assertion that there would have been no war if he had been in office, Muir asked again, “Do you believe it’s in the U.S. best interests for Ukraine to win this war? Yes or no?” Trump said, “I think it’s in the U.S. best interest to get this war finished and just get it done….Negotiate a deal. Because we have to stop all of these human lives from being destroyed.”
Muir then asked Harris for her thoughts on support for Ukraine and whether her dealing with Putin “would be any different from what we’re seeing from President Biden.” She said she helped muster 50 countries to supply weapons to Ukraine, “and because of our support, because of the air defense, the ammunition, the artillery, the javelins, the Abrams tanks that we have provided, Ukraine stands as an independent and free country.”
What Harris did not say, and neither Trump nor the moderators noted, was that the Biden administration, despite urging from other NATO members , initially denied Ukraine each of those weapons systems for fear of provoking Russian escalation. As a consequence, they were only delivered months after Russia had inflicted momentous additional death and destruction on the population and critical infrastructure of Ukraine. The moderators also did not ask Harris, and she did not volunteer, whether the Biden administration “believes it’s in the U.S. best interests for Ukraine to win this war,” as opposed to surviving a stalemate.
As Fareed Zakaria reported last week, after talks with both government officials and private citizens in Kiev, he heard a common concern about Western resolve: “We will keep fighting but we worry that we will be fighting alone.”
Harris used the debate as an opportunity to attack Trump’s affinity for strongmen and dictators who will flatter him and “eat him for lunch.” He responded, worryingly, by invoking the flattery of Hungary’s “tough” and “smart” strongman who has been criticized by other NATO members for his pro-Russia positions. “Look, Viktor Orban said…the most respected, most feared person is Donald Trump.”
Trump offered an additional reason he would quickly end the war: the same fear of escalation that inhibits the Biden-Harris administration’s support for Ukraine. “Putin’s got nuclear weapons,” the ex commander in chief said. “And eventually, maybe he’ll use them.”
China, which also has nuclear weapons, was discussed in the debate only in the context of its trade challenge. Taiwan was mentioned only briefly as an important supplier of chips. But America’s hesitancy on Ukraine, a democratic friend and security partner, reverberates in the Indo-Pacific, where Taiwan and the Philippines are similarly under severe threat from their expansionist, anti-Western neighbor.
The fear of triggering World War III, shared by both Biden-Harris and Trump, necessarily affects U.S. policy in that region as well as in Europe. Yet, the burden of avoiding major power confrontations must fall at least as heavily on the shoulders of the aggressive powers who are creating and exacerbating the tensions. They should not be permitted to intimidate the West, whether on Ukraine or Taiwan.
Joseph Bosco served as China country director for the secretary of Defense from 2005 to 2006 and as Asia-Pacific director of humanitarian assistance and disaster relief from 2009 to 2010. He is a nonresident fellow at the Institute for Corean-American Studies and a member of the advisory board of the Global Taiwan Institute.
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