Opinion: Putin’s attempt to destroy Ukraine’s nationhood backfired

After two-and-a-half years of a terrible war, Ukrainians remain deeply patriotic. If one of Vladimir Putin’s goals in launching the war was to sow uncertainty about Ukrainian nationhood and statehood, then he’s failed miserably. Nor is time on his side. The trends point to continued high Ukrainian patriotic feeling.

A public opinion survey conducted last month by the highly respected Democratic Initiatives Fund and the Razumkov Center questioned 2,017 Ukrainian adults in all the provinces that remain unoccupied by Russian forces and are outside of war zones.

Here are some of the key findings (with a 2.3 percent margin of error):

• Eighty-eight percent of Ukrainians are either proud or rather proud of their citizenship. In 2021, before the war, that percentage was 72.4. In 2002, the it was just 41 percent.
• This pride is evenly distributed among Ukraine’s regions: 93 percent in the west, 87 percent in the center, 87 percent in the south and 84 percent in the east.
• This national pride is also high among both rich and poor: 94 percent of the former and 86 percent of the latter.
• In all age groups, between 83 and 87 percent of Ukrainians would vote for independence again if given the choice today — the figure stood at just 68 percent in 2020 — whereas only 1 to 3 percent would vote against. This is nearly as strong as the 92 percent who originally voted for independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.
• Regions would vote somewhat differently for independence: 93 percent in the west, 87 percent in the center, 73 percent in the south, and 78 percent in the east. Significantly, only 0 to 4 percent would vote against. This roughly reflects how the actual independence vote went 33 years ago.

We can draw three conclusions from this data. First, the Ukrainian nation is well on the way to being consolidated. Ukrainians are no longer a ragtag bunch of people thrown together by fate. Although they are fully aware of their ethnic, religious, social and regional differences, they’ve made a choice to live in a state called Ukraine and to feel loyalty to it. That’s patriotism.

Second, the war has strengthened Ukrainian patriotic consolidation. Wars generally do that, as they force people to choose sides and to countenance giving their lives for their nation. Third, as already noted, Ukrainians have handed Putin another of his many defeats by acting contrary to his desire to undermine their sense of patriotism.

Unsurprisingly, there’s somewhat less unanimity among Ukrainians with respect to life in Ukraine:

• Forty percent believe events in Ukraine are developing in the right direction, 37 percent believe they’re going in the wrong direction, and 23 percent can’t say.
• That said, a whopping 86 percent want to build their future lives in Ukraine. Only 8 percent say no to this prospect.
• The desire to see their future in Ukraine varies by age, but not significantly: 74 percent of 18 to 29 year olds, 81 percent of 30 to 39 year olds, 87 percent of 40 to 49 year olds, 90 percent of 50 to 59 year olds and 93 percent of those 60 and above want to stay. Although the youngest age group can more easily imagine building a life outside of Ukraine, three-quarters appear to be homebodies, presumably because their sense of patriotism and their belief in post-war opportunities inclines them to stay.
• Ukrainians’ relative optimism also applies to the past. Twenty-five percent believe Ukraine has experienced more positive things than negative ones since independence in 1991. Fifty percent believe it’s an equal mix of good and bad, and only 17 percent see primarily bad things. With the ebbs and flows of Ukrainian politics, all three of these views have experienced enormous fluctuation since 2001.
• When asked to identify the emotion they attach to Ukraine’s future, 61 percent say “hope,” 40 percent “anxiety,” 34 percent “optimism,” 21 percent “fear” and 20 percent “confusion.” In a word, they are feeling the whole gamut of emotions, as one would expect from people under attack who are hoping for the best and fearing the worst.

All in all, it’s clear that Ukrainians aren’t giving up. Quite the opposite: They are rallying around the flag. Western policymakers who doubt their commitment and resilience, and Russia’s dictator, who expected a swift disintegration of the Ukrainian spirit, would be well advised to listen.

Alexander J. Motyl is a professor of political science at Rutgers University-Newark. A specialist on Ukraine, Russia and the USSR, and on nationalism, revolutions, empires and theory, he is the author of 10 books of nonfiction, as well as “ Imperial Ends : The Decay, Collapse, and Revival of Empires” and “ Why Empires Reemerge : Imperial Collapse and Imperial Revival in Comparative Perspective.”

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