Donald Trump won the presidency in 2016 in part by creating a parallel universe where everything was going wrong. Violent migrants were flooding into the country, Trump argued. Crime was at an all-time high . Democrats are scheming to rig elections and mandate socialism in your kid’s school. Being a part of the MAGA movement meant signing on to Trump’s warped view of reality.
In 2016, Trump found plenty of voters willing to buy into his message of “ American carnage .” That’s not proving so easy this time around.
The last month of campaigning has seen the media finally fact-checking Trump’s absurd lies — with the result being that the former president’s campaign has been revealed as a disorganized mess led by some of the most odious names in the far-right influencer universe.
From a hoax about Haitian immigrants eating Ohioans’ cats to the return of fired adviser Corey Lewandowski (and the addition of influencer Laura Loomer) , it’s clear Trump’s campaign is running out of ideas. Now it is also running scared from a second debate with Vice President Kamala Harris.
The MAGA movement’s world was always a fragile one. Now it’s on the verge of shattering.
That doesn’t mean Trump is fated to lose. Record levels of political polarization have led to a race where tens of thousands of votes in a mere handful of states will prove decisive. But unlike in 2016 and even 2020, the facts on the ground are making it harder for Trump to sell his doom-and-gloom vision of an America in decline.
For one, fewer Americans feel pessimistic about the economy. That played to Trump’s benefit in 2016, but earlier this month the Wall Street Journal recorded a nearly 10-point jump in the number of Americans who believe the country is on the right track. In the key state of Georgia, nearly six in 10 residents think the economy will continue to improve over the next year. Back in January, that number was just 36 percent.
More Americans are also feeling safer in their homes and communities, despite Trump’s repeated lie that crime rates are sky-high. In fact, the Biden administration is presiding over a historic drop in crime rates, including a nearly 12 percent year-over-year drop in murders — the biggest single-year decline in two decades.
The FBI dealt another blow to Trump’s fantasyland this week with the publication of its annual nationwide crime statistics . They confirmed not only a huge drop in murders, but also a 9.4 percent decline in rapes and a 7.6 percent decline in property crimes. Across almost every metric, crime statistics disagree with Trump’s cries about violence in the streets.
Republicans’ disinformation has successfully convinced too many Americans that crime is rising; paradoxically, Republicans in the House are pushing to slash law enforcement funding . That’s making it awfully tough for Trump’s key surrogates, who are torn between portraying their constituencies as crime-ridden and taking credit for the real reductions in crime seen during the Biden years.
In fact, crime is falling out of fashion as an issue driving voters to the polls; a growing number of voters from across the political divide now say that abortion ranks as their top election issue . Polling also found crime issues were no longer top of mind for Minnesota voters, rattling a state Republican Party that has gone all-in on messaging designed to make Minnesotans feel unsafe in their communities.
Unlike in 2016, or even 2020, media outlets seem to have finally understood the importance of showing Americans what Trump’s fantasy world of chaos and violence means for them. The Washington Post’s Ashley Parker raised eyebrows with her look into what she called Trump’s “ imaginary and frightening world ” where “Americans can’t venture out to buy a loaf of bread without getting shot, mugged or raped.”
Despite his descent into the Truth Social rumor mill, Trump has often benefited from a media that treated his unhinged ideas as serious policy proposals. It’s no surprise that Trump’s swing-state polling has suffered since voters finally got a look behind the curtain at the Wizard of MAGA. They clearly don’t like what they see.
Most Americans are actually doing better now than they were in 2020 , both financially and personally. Their communities are safer, their retirement portfolios are up, and a growing number feel optimistic about the future. That kind of stability is hostile soil for the seeds of Trumpism. The future of the MAGA movement depends on convincing these voters that a recovery they can feel doesn’t actually exist.
That’s a big ask in an election where the vast majority of voters have already made up their minds — and where undecided voters are moving away from Trump’s spiraling campaign. The manufactured high of MAGA fearmongering is wearing off. Republicans are in for one hell of a hangover.
Max Burns is a veteran Democratic strategist and founder of Third Degree Strategies.
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