Opinion: Why do Russians appear so satisfied despite the war in Ukraine?

Two and a half years into their nation’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russians seem to be less affected by the war than they were in 2022.

Neither Ukraine’s incursion into the Kursk region nor the most recent Western sanctions seem to be igniting discontent among “ordinary” citizens or the affluent populations of Russia’s largest cities.

This comes as a surprise to many Western policymakers and the Russian dissidents who invested some hope in Muscovites and Petersburgers becoming disgruntled with the “war economy,” as such luxuries as Western boutiques, unlimited internet use and even easy weekend trips to European capitals vanish. But although Russia has become significantly cut-off from the West — one can reach Paris or Berlin only via Istanbul or Doha, and a VPN is needed to access “prohibited” websites —  all of this annoys too few people to cause any significant backlash.

How can one explain such silence in those Russian communities that have been considered the most Westernized in the entire country? I would offer a rather paradoxical answer. Moscow and other Russian metropolises have become much more Westernized in recent years despite Russia appearing to be the West’s most desperate adversary.

Looking at Moscow, we see not only an enormous concentration of wealth, making the capital a contributor of 20 percent of all taxes to Russia’s federal budget, but a rapid modernization of the city’s infrastructure and development of diverse digital services barely seen anywhere else.

The Western sanctions imposed in 2022 caused a sharp fall in Russia’s capital exports. Almost all the money that would have previously been channeled into luxury European real estate instead started to flow into Moscow, St. Petersburg and their suburbs. Since 2021, the average dollar price of an apartment in Moscow has risen by a staggering 43 percent, and the city government has invested huge efforts into expanding transportation facilities and stimulating private businesses in the service sector to meet growing demand.

In the last ten years, 78 new stations of the Moscow underground were built — more than in the previous four decades —  and the commuter network was integrated into a broader railway system, now resembling the Paris Métro-RER network. The city now has the largest fleet of locally made all-electric buses in Europe, while river electric trams are bolstering Moscow’s transit infrastructure .

Although Visa and MasterCard suspended their operations in Russia , Russians continue to use Central Bank’s Instantaneous Payments System, which allows the transfer of any amount of money using one’s mobile phone number as an identifier, immediately and without commission. Russia’s capital cities are now ahead of European metropolises in using QR-code payments and facial recognition in financial transactions, and mobile data in Russia remains the cheapest and fastest in Europe. Grocery shops feature the same assortment of goods as before the war, including French wine and Italian confectionary. On the top of that, doorstep delivery of food and goods by autonomous bots is commonplace.

Of course, the effects of war are still felt in Russia’s most affluent locations. For example, the massive emigration of 2022 and the growing number of people mobilized to military service has led to a labor shortage. But in both Moscow and St. Petersburg, the number sent to war is not too high, as city dwellers cannot be seduced even by record signing bonuses offered to volunteers. Meanwhile, booming demand is driving up local wages.

Moreover, the job offers have been so enticing in recent months that many Russians who left the country at the beginning of the war, are now returning after failing to integrate into European societies. Even Western celebrities like the developmental economist Jeffrey Sachs are starring in glamorous international events like the recent BRICS Urban Future Forum which attracted dozens of mayors of major cities across Asia, Africa and the Middle East.

Of course, the Russian metropolises were always different from the rest of the country. But these days, one may monitor their developments for understanding why the Russian citizens manage to become more affluent while their country is at war with its closest neighbor.

As I argued 15 years ago in Le Monde , the Russian post-communist society became extremely individualized and focused on, as the late Polish-British sociologist Zygmunt Bauman used to say, personal solutions of systemic contradictions. These people are not so much disturbed but rather pleased by the liberal Russians’ exodus, and they welcome those positive economic changes they witness in their everyday lives.

This economic progress, partially caused by the West’s confrontational policy, has undermined the anti-Putin sentiments in the country much more than any other factor. To date, it outweighs the curtailing of political liberties in the country in recent years — since those liberties are claimed by few, and the economic prosperity is felt by all.

The West’s attempt to undermine Russia economically since 2022 has thus produced an opposite result — at least so far.

Vladislav Inozemtsev is special adviser to the Middle East Media Research Institute’s Russian Media Studies Project and is director of Moscow-based Center for Post-Industrial Studies.

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