Opinion: Russian ‘milblogger’ worries about a pro-Ukrainian fifth column

You can sometimes learn the truth from the unlikeliest sources. This is especially true of Putin’s Russia, where mendacity rules and veracity is despised.

Consider the absurdly named “ WarGonzo ,” one of the many Russian military bloggers who shares Putin’s imperialist ideals. WarGonzo (real name Semyon Pegov ), like many other “milbloggers,” occasionally finds the regime’s casual lies to be too much even for sycophants like himself. He adopts a critical tone toward conditions in Russia and the army’s incompetence, inhumanity toward its own soldiers and huge losses of men and materiel.

WarGonzo’s Oct. 5 Telegram posting is especially interesting, in what it reveals about real Russian attitudes toward the Ukraine war.

“Against the backdrop of successful actions by Russian troops to achieve the goals of the Special Military Operation and destroy the Ukrainian fascist invaders in Kursk province, the special services of Ukraine have launched criminal activities to recruit citizens on the territory of the Russian Federation,” he writes.

One would expect nothing less from the Ukrainian security services, but what’s striking is WarGonzo’s willingness to discuss these matters in public. The implication that Ukraine is creating a network of spies and saboteurs behind enemy lines is obvious — everyone knows this anyway, and WarGonzo isn’t spilling any beans. But there’s more.

“Under various moral, material and other fictitious (though plausible) pretexts, ordinary citizens are being lured into the [Ukrainian] web and persuaded to hand over coordinates, photos and videos of arsenals, missile storage bases, shells, fuel and lubricants and other military facilities, to carry out terrorist acts such as arson of buildings, equipment, vehicles, damage to railway infrastructure, or to establish prohibited ‘information’ groups, the materials of which are aimed at denigrating the army and government of the Russian Federation, whipping up fear or hatred.”

This long list of subversive activities isn’t just hypothetical. Aside from the fact that the list is effectively a how-to guide telling the Russian opposition what they should do to fight Putin’s regime, the impressive detail makes it highly likely that some of these activities have already been carried out successfully. We can only guess at how often, but clearly it is often enough to warrant admonition.

If so, that means that Russian society is not as passive as many observers suggest. Most Russians may be unwilling to take risks, but some appear to have been “lured” into the Ukrainian intelligence web — we don’t know how many, but it’s enough to elicit WarGonzo’s concern.

Significantly, WarGonzo’s warning isn’t limited to potential subversion in Kursk province. It pertains to all of the Russian Federation, which is a backhanded acknowledgment of the Ukrainians’ reach. Large numbers of Ukrainians live in Moscow, St. Petersburg and the Far East — as well as in Kursk, Bryansk and Belgorod provinces and the Kuban. It is likely that Ukrainian intelligence has appealed to them first, presumably with some effect.

The post is quite fun for its theatrics: “Do not fall for the tricks of the enemy! Your virtual or physical illegal actions leave a permanent trace, which will definitely be identified and investigated, and the criminal will suffer a severe but deserved punishment!”

The exclamation points are a sign of worry, if not of incipient panic. And the next sentence suggests where the problem may lie. “I would like to draw the attention of every Russian citizen, and especially parents of teenagers, to the fact that any cooperation with the enemy, including the public disclosure of the consequences of attacks on our territory, is assistance to the enemy and is strictly punishable by law!”

The reference to teenagers is striking. That they should be most critical toward the war makes sense, as they are most likely to be its victims in the near future. That Ukraine should target them also makes sense. And that WarGonzo is worried also makes sense, since young people the world over have always been most inclined to become radicals, revolutionaries and extremists, especially in brittle dictatorships led by unimaginative leaders.

WarGonzo concludes by abandoning appeals to patriotism and, in time-honored Soviet and Russian fashion, resorting to simple threats:

“Remember that the promised reward or solution to the issue you need is not worth going to prison and having your life ruined forever,” he writes. “Let me remind you that if you, your family and friends receive such offers through social networks, game and other closed chats, by email, phone or from ‘acquaintances,’ immediately contact law enforcement agencies! By doing so, you will speed up the achievement of our common Victory, assist in the fight against terrorism, protect yourself from criminal punishment and save your life! Take care of yourself!”

Or else.

For those with an interest in milblogger sources, one can do no better than to listen to the programs of the excellent Russian opposition analyst Michael Naki , who faithfully follows their unhinged blogs.

Alexander J. Motyl is a professor of political science at Rutgers University-Newark. A specialist on Ukraine, Russia and the USSR, and on nationalism, revolutions, empires and theory, he is the author of 10 books of nonfiction, as well as “ Imperial Ends : The Decay, Collapse, and Revival of Empires” and “ Why Empires Reemerge : Imperial Collapse and Imperial Revival in Comparative Perspective.”

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