Chiefs-Bengals prediction: One factor outweighs all others for this KC-Cincy pick

The Kansas City Chiefs play the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday in KC.

Here are the game details:

Kickoff: 3:25 p.m. Central on Sunday

Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City

TV: CBS (Channel 5 in Kansas City, Channel 12 in Wichita)

Radio: KFNZ (96.5 FM in Kansas City, KNSS 98.7 FM in Wichita)

Betting line : Chiefs by 6.

Chiefs-Bengals game prediction

The perceived trajectories of these two teams couldn’t be much different following Week 1.

KC’s offense looked great in a 27-20 home win over Baltimore , with quarterback Patrick Mahomes immediately benefiting from having more (and improved) weapons around him.

Meanwhile, Cincinnati started with a thud in a 16-10 home loss to the Patriots, with many questions to answer following that effort.

Is QB Joe Burrow fully healthy from a wrist injury? At least a few national analysts are worried , though it’s worth pointing out that Burrow’s numbers would’ve been much better if not for receiver drops and fumbles at inopportune times.

Also, how good can the Bengals be around him? Receiver Ja’Marr Chase is still getting his timing back following a contract dispute and hold-in, while wideout Tee Higgins is doubtful this week with a hamstring injury.

Cincinnati’s defense also seems susceptible to the run — especially with defensive tackle DJ Reader leaving in free agency this offseason. New England’s Rhamondre Stevenson ran for 120 yards last week without the Patriots having much of a pass game to worry about, which seems like it could portend bad things for the Bengals ahead.

All that, however, leads to a mantra that all potential football bettors should heed: Do not overreact to Week 1.

It’s tough, I know. We believe what our eyes tell us, and recency bias is often a difficult force to keep in check.

The Bengals might be a flawed team. We don’t exactly know yet. Based on history , however, the more likely scenario is that Cincinnati remains a good team that simply had a bad opening week.

Think about this game in those terms, and this Vegas line seems like it could be out of whack.

KC opened as a 3 1/2-point favorite before that number has ballooned to six. And a few-point swing based on 60 minutes of football for both squads appears to be a bit drastic, especially given these teams’ recent history.

Cincinnati will not be intimidated going into the Chiefs’ home stadium. They’ve won here before , and that psychological edge certainly means something in a conference that otherwise seems haunted by the ghost of Mahomes.

It’s also worth pointing out Cincinnati defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has a decent history of finding game plans to limit Mahomes’ production. Much like KC seems to get an edge in big games thanks to defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s experience and savvy, Cincinnati appears to gain a similar boost with Anarumo in these types of matchups.

The Chiefs have an advantage running the ball, but quietly, the team’s run blocking was subpar in the opener against the Ravens. That’ll need to be better Sunday if KC wants to dominate this game like it hopes.

In the end, I think both teams will revert closer Sunday to what we thought of them before the season. The Chiefs won’t be as dynamic offensively against a strong defensive mind, while Burrow and Chase will be better as their teammates avoid the big mistakes they made in Game 1.

Give me the Chiefs to win but the Bengals to cover, as the six-point spread seems too high — especially in a game where gusty conditions could make field goals challenging .

Chiefs 21, Bengals 20

Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Cincinnati

Last game prediction: Chiefs 28, Ravens 20 (Actual: Chiefs 27-20) ✔️

2024 record vs. spread: 1-0

Last three seasons’ record vs. spread: 26-16 (62%)