Chiefs-Saints prediction: Should smart KC-New Orleans bet be on past, or future?

The Kansas City Chiefs play the New Orleans Saints on Monday in Kansas City.

Here are the game details:

Kickoff: 7:15 p.m. Central on Monday

Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City

TV: ESPN/ESPN2

Radio: KFNZ (96.5 FM in Kansas City, KNSS 98.7 FM in Wichita)

Betting line : Chiefs by 5 1/2.

Chiefs-Saints game prediction

Predicting this game is a bit of a test on how much you value this year’s results against what you expect a team to become.

New Orleans, statistically, has been super-impressive through four weeks. The Saints have Pro Football Focus’ highest-graded pass offense ( by quite a bit ), while their rank in the all-encompassing DVOA measure is fourth-best for a 2-2 NFL team in the last 45 seasons.

Kansas City, meanwhile, has to be happy with a 4-0 record while not performing dominantly. The offense, for instance, ranks 13th in DVOA thus far, and that’s before having to adjust to current life without injured receiver Rashee Rice .

The betting spread remains Chiefs by 5 1/2 points, though, which makes more sense after peeking under the hood of both teams.

The Saints are dealing with significant injuries and players who won’t go Monday. That includes center Erik McCoy, who had a terrific start to the season before going on injured reserve with a groin injury, and also tight end/running back/quarterback Taysom Hill (ribs), who appears to make everything better for the Saints’ offense when he’s out there.

The Chiefs — even according to coach Andy Reid’s locker-room admission to his team the last two weeks — have just been a tick off offensively. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has seemed uncomfortable with some rare accuracy issues, while the Chiefs have racked up more turnovers than in past seasons. Some of that seems a bit fluky.

There will be a few keys to watch Monday. For one, the Chiefs’ defensive line will get a second straight week of going against a dilapidated offensive line, as right guard Cesar Ruiz and McCoy’s backup, Shane Lemieux, are both out.

And though Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has a lot of respect for Saints QB Derek Carr , this figures to be a matchup where the Chiefs can take advantage of an inexperienced O-line with Spagnuolo’s array of blitz calls.

Carr has performed well under pressure this year , but there’s only so much you can do if the defense gets there immediately. Not only does Carr have to worry about Chiefs defensive lineman Chris Jones eating up the Saints’ interior line, but he’ll also have to be prepared for rushing defenders coming from anywhere.

Something else to pay attention to: Will Mahomes change his style to a “Bleep it” mentality ?

Mahomes was reflective this week while admitting that he might need to be more patient on post-snap reads to give his guys additional downfield chances. That seems like the kind of shift KC is likely to need after losing its best throw-short-and-get-yards-after-catch guy in Rice.

One caveat: The Saints rank seventh in PFF’s “coverage grade” while especially stingy on long passes. Giving speedster Xavier Worthy some shots deep, in other words, might be tougher this week than in the future.

It looks like it’ll be a great night for football, with temperatures dipping into the 50s without precipitation or much wind.

That usually would favor offenses and scoring, but because of each team’s circumstances, things might not play out that way as both teams adjust without a few top guys.

In the end, I still tend to believe Reid in thinking KC is closer to putting things together offensively than the first four weeks have shown. Though Rice is out, the Chiefs’ staff has proven in the past to be excellent at accentuating the strengths of the players they do have, and don’t be surprised if KC goes to an even heavier diet of multiple-tight-end sets while also leaning into a run game that has been successful thus far.

Yes, Carr has been great this year, while receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed will be one of the top wideout duos the Chiefs face all season.

I’m still worried about how the operation will go with so many new offensive line pieces coming together in a challenging road environment. It’s not easy for an offense to play in KC when healthy, and even a few O-line mistakes like false starts or blown assignments could quickly stack things against the visiting team.

Look for the Chiefs to play cleaner football Monday while featuring a spread-it-around offense. And though Carr and the Saints might hit on a big play or two, they should struggle for sustained success while trying to piece things together up front.

Add it all up, and this seems like a Chiefs win and cover to me.

Chiefs 27, Saints 14

Jesse’s pick to cover spread: Kansas City

Last game prediction: Chiefs 31, Chargers 17 (Actual: Chiefs 17-10; right on seven-point spread for a pushed bet)

2024 record vs. spread: 3-0-1

Last three seasons’ record vs. spread: 28-16-1 (64%)