Kansas City Royals manager Matt Quatraro took a second to weigh his options.
In Game 1 of the American League Division Series against the New York Yankees, Quatraro was faced with a crucial situation. Royals starter Michael Wacha had just walked second baseman Gleyber Torres to lead off the fifth inning.
The Royals clung to a 3-2 lead and Torres represented the game-tying run. Wacha had thrown 70 high-stress pitches. And he was staring down the barrel of Juan Soto and Aaron Judge waiting on deck.
Both players were due to face Wacha a third time in the game.
Quatraro didn’t give Wacha a chance. He pulled the veteran right-hander in favor of left-handed reliever Angel Zerpa.
The decision backfired. Zerpa allowed a single and two walks as the Yankees tied the game at three and later won 6-5 in the ALDS opener .
So why did Quatraro pull Wacha in the key spot? The decision came down to a few specific numbers when facing a lineup a third time.
“Try to balance it out the best we can,” Quatraro said. “These first two games have been kind of unique. Wacha’s game, I felt like that was pretty high leverage right from the get go. He had them second and third with nobody out (in the first inning). He was working pretty hard through those first couple of innings.”
This season, Wacha allowed a .290 batting average when facing an opponent for the third time in a game. Opposing hitters collected 42 hits and scored 19 runs in 160 plate appearances.
The Royals evaluated several factors before making the final decision. Pitching coach Brian Sweeney relies on analytics and constant communication with Quatraro throughout the game. With off days after Game 1 and 2, the Royals also knew they’d have a fresh bullpen.
The open discussions help set up a game plan to decide the best time to go to that bullpen.
“The third time through an order is quite challenging,” Sweeney said. “Especially, when you have a top of the lineup like the Yankees have or anybody in the big leagues for that matter. They put some strong batters at the top of the order.
“Basically, we use our experience in the game and use the data and make the best decision at the time to either send a guy back out there or this is a time we are going to go to a reliever.”
Outside of Game 1, that’s worked out for the Royals.
In Game 2 of the ALDS on Monday night, the Royals went back to Zerpa in a high-leverage spot . He entered for starting pitcher Cole Ragans in the fifth inning. Ragans had thrown 87 pitches.
Zerpa stepped up and faced Soto, Judge and rookie catcher Austin Wells. This time, he struck out Soto, walked Judge and forced Wells to ground into a double play to end the inning.
It was a pivotal inning of relief work. The Royals maintained a 4-1 lead and Zerpa was credited with the win .
“We put Zerpa in that spot the other day because we believe in him,” Quatraro said after Monday’s win. “It didn’t work out that way. But today you saw more of what we would have expected.”
The Royals hope to continue matching up their relievers in the late innings. They aren’t afraid to allow a pitcher to face a lineup a third time. However, both Quatraro and Sweeney trust the analytics to make a sound decision.
“I think (Quatraro) came from a place where the third time through the order, they paid a lot of attention to, as did I in Cleveland,” Sweeney said. “We use data to back up what our eyes are seeing. A big reason of where we are at this season is because of what the starters have done. They have earned the right to get that third or fourth time through the order.”
The MLB playoffs have several high-pressure moments. So Quatraro has leaned more on a well-rested bullpen to help get a fresh arm in during crucial situations.
Still, the Royals aren’t shying away from letting a starter go deeper through a lineup.
Ragans has great numbers when facing an opponent for a third time. He is holding opponents to a .215 batting average in those situations. Seth Lugo, who will start Game 3 , has allowed 29 runs in 224 at-bats.
In Game 3, Lugo could very well face Judge or Soto a third time. Quatraro knows there is a balance and one he will monitor closely.
“Those off days certainly helped to be able to go to the bullpen,” Quatraro said. “Now, we might not be able to do that both of these games, nor do we want to, so we will have to strike that balance.”
Lugo is prepared for whichever assignment he is given. He sets a goal to pitch deeper into games and at least throw six innings. And he knows that being efficient is the best way to neutralize the Yankees’ offense.
“They are some of the best mistake-hitters in the league,” Lugo said. “When you get ahead 0-1, you put the pressure on them. And it’s easier to execute pitches when you are ahead in the count as opposed to behind. When you are behind in the count, you make mistakes and leave stuff over the middle of the plate for them to hit. So getting ahead is really important against this lineup.”
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