(This story was updated to add new information.)
Words nobody affected by Hurricane Helene wants to hear: A tropical storm or hurricane could form over the western Caribbean.
" Co nditions remain ripe for t ropical development in the western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico over the next week and steering breezes would tend to guide any feature that forms in those waters toward the United States," according to AccuWeather.
Those sentiments were echoed Sunday by Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist with WeatherTiger.
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"Traumatized" Gulf Coast, Florida and the Southeast need to keep a close eye on th i s potential threat. Truchelut is a Florida meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network.
In a telephone interview Friday, AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter warned residents along the Gulf Coast to not "let your guard down" as a system of low pressure could form over the western Caribbean.
"Another serious threat for a tropical storm or hurricane could eventually emerge from this area of concern. It's in the same general area in the northwestern Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico where Helene got started.
"Experts are identifying this as a medium risk area for a tropical storm to develop. It could find itself in the southern Gulf of Mexico ... and then be a threat to the Gulf Coast. If it tracks toward Florida, that would be extra special concern after the serious impact this week from Helene."
Where is the potential tropical threat to Florida, US Gulf Coast?
A broad area of low pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form around the middle part of this week while the disturbance moves slowly west-northwest.
This system is then expected to move northwestward into the Gulf of Mexico during the latter portion of this week.
Residents in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and along the U.S. Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this system.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: medium, 50 percent.
Timeline: When could tropical depression or tropical storm develop?
AccuWeather meteorologists said the area from the western Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico will remain a potential tropical development zone into the first half of October.
"Over the next week, one to two tropical storms could be born in this zone and possibly steered across part of the southeastern United States that was hit hard by Hurricane Helene."
The National Hurricane Center said a tropical depression could form around the middle part of this week.
"At this range and without an actual disturbance to watch, I’d simply say that it’s perhaps a little more likely than not something eventually develops in the Caribbean in the next 4 to 8 days, though not a certainty," Truchelut said Sunday.
"That is of course concerning, as a steering ridge over the western Atlantic would again mean anything that does develop is probably heading northwest into the Gulf by the end of the week."
Is Florida, Gulf Coast really at risk from another tropical storm or hurricane after Helene?
Downpours can be strewn anywhere from Louisiana to Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas in the U.S., according to AccuWeather.
As southwesterly breezes increase, they will tend to cause moisture and any tropical feature that has formed or is trying to form to be guided to the north or east later next week into the following weekend.
If those steering breezes remain weak, then a track toward Louisiana could occur, said AccuWeather.
If there are strong steering breezes from the southwest occur, then a track toward Florida and perhaps the coastal areas of Georgia and the Carolinas would be more likely.
Later, downpours could stretch anywhere from Louisiana to Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas in the U.S.
The most likely scenario with this week's tropical feature is that it will get drawn northward to a point over the Gulf but then shunted northeastward late this week , AccuWeather said.
What's Polk County's forecast look like?
Here's the forecast through Friday from the National Weather Service in Tampa . Regardless of what might be brewing in the Caribbean, Polk County can expect normal, fairly high chances of rain through Friday.
Monday : Isolated showers and thunderstorms after 3 p.m. Sunny, with a high near 92. Heat index values as high as 106. Calm wind becoming south southwest around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Monday night : Isolated showers and thunderstorms before 7 p.m. Partly cloudy, with a low around 76. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 10%.
Tuesday : Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Heat index values as high as 105. Calm wind becoming south southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Tuesday Night : Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8 p.m., then scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 8 p.m. and 2 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. East northeast wind around 6 mph becoming calm after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Wednesday : Isolated showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Calm wind becoming east northeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Wednesday Night : Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8 p.m., then isolated showers and thunderstorms between 8 p.m. and 2 a.m. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. East northeast wind 3 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Thursday : Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. East wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Thursday Night : Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8 p.m., then isolated showers and thunderstorms between 8 p.m. and 2 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. East wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Friday : Isolated showers and thunderstorms between 8 a.m. and 2 p.m., then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2 p.m. Partly sunny, with a high near 87. East wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Friday Night : Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8 p.m., then scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 8 p.m. and 2 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
What do Polk County's rivers look like?
The county didn't get as much rain as predicted from Hurricane Helene. And all three of the rivers that flow out of Polk County to the west coast were well below flood stage as of Monday morning, according to the NOAA website .
- The Peace River at Bartow was 5.7 feet, down about a foot since last week, and nearly 2.5 feet below minor flood stage.
- The Alafia River at Lithia, which takes water from Southwest Lakeland, including Poley Creek, was 8.95 on Monday morning. Minor flood stage is 13 feet.
- The Hillsborough River near Zephyrhills, which takes water from the Blackwater and Itchepackesassa creeks as well as points in the Green Swamp, was at 4.39 feet. Minor flood stage is 10 feet.
How is this developing tropical system different from Hurricane Helene?
"This week's disturbance will likely be slow to develop as it expands northward, encountering more land masses and wind shear," Anderson explained.
"There will also not be any storm diving southward through the central U.S. to provide that extra energy and northward pull."
Helene was a very large storm that moved into an environment that encouraged rapid intensification, including very warm water and little wind shear to tear it apart. A non-tropical storm moving south through the central U.S. provided even more energy to Helene and helped send it north into the Appalachians and mid-Mississippi Valley, AccuWeather said.
A dip in the jet stream "would tend to favor anything that forms eventually angling northeast or east-northeast over the eastern Gulf, more sharply than Helene’s north-northeast heading," Truchelut said, although it could also increase wind shear.
This developing system also is much smaller than Helene.
What impacts could Florida, Gulf Coast see?
Wind shear may prevent this storm from rapidly strengthening and may even split it apart into two separate entities, the second one may follow the first one a few days later," Anderson said,
A strong and more compact storm would result in a risk of strong and potentially damaging winds across parts of the Southeast from Friday through next weekend, AccuWeather said.
Both scenarios — one strong storm or two weaker ones — can deliver excessive rainfall to part of the Southeast.
Please note, until an organized center of circulation forms, there is a great deal of uncertainty on where and what this could do.
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This article originally appeared on The Ledger: The latest on the new tropical threat looming for Florida, and Polk County's forecast
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