Friday Night Picks: Figuring out the MOAC, KMAC football races, plus Week 1 selections

MARION — According to the north central Ohio media members that cover high school football, 2024 is going to be a runback of 2023.

The 2023 final standings and the 2024 preseason predictions in the Mid Ohio Athletic Conference and Knox Morrow Athletic Conference are eerily similar. Check it out here to see for yourself. Looking at the recent history of both leagues, it's never as simple as one season mimicking the next. Graduation and attrition go head-to-head with maturing and growth. There are cycles to this, and I think 2024 is another turn of the wheel.

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So on my ballot I didn't do the MOAC or KMAC by Hoyle. I looked at the rosters and last year's stats and judged the experience of all eight teams in both conferences and came to my own conclusions.

Shelby and Ontario are the returning MOAC champs, sharing it last year, and while they have arguably the two best players in the conference as their quarterbacks, both teams were smacked hard by graduation. And those grads weren't just guys who looked good in uniforms; they were big-time players. Shelby has a history of reloading, but we'll see with Ontario. That's why I picked those teams second and third, respectively.

Pleasant was my first-place choice. The Spartans return a lot of dudes, and while they lost some uber-productive seniors from 2023, they have a lot of young talent waiting for their shots on Friday nights. The Spartans took a huge step last year in putting together a winning season, and I know their faithful have been pointing to this season as a return to the glory days of seasons and generations past. Maybe it happens; maybe it doesn't, but Pleasant will be a factor in the MOAC this year.

The same goes for Marion Harding and River Valley. I could easily see both in the top half of the conference by the end of the season.

Harding has the most experience returning of anyone in the league, so the Presidents shouldn't play like deer caught in the Friday night lights as they did at times a year ago. Consistency in play and approach hampered them a year ago. They have the potential. Now it's time to put it into practice.

RV has a great quarterback and linebacker. They have been in the next-man-up mode for several seasons, especially at receiver, where production doesn't drop off despite graduation. However, the Vikings lost some fine offensive lineman, and replacing their athleticism and strength won't be easy.

I had Highland in sixth because I don't know what to make of them. It's hard to envision the Scots without Dane Nauman at running back. They're obviously going to go about their business differently than they did the last three years, so it will be interesting to see how they evolve and develop.

Clear Fork is continuing its rebuild, while Galion was devastated by graduation, so it might be a tough encore for the Tigers if they can't find the right pieces.

As for the KMAC, I think this is the year Northmor finally wins a league championship, which would be its first since 1982, according to the Ohio High School Football Database website. The Golden Knights have their skill guys back, including a pair of All-Ohioans, good linemen and a stout defense. They won 10 games last year and were runners-up behind Danville. This could be a special one in northern Morrow County.

East Knox has the best returning all-around player in the league in Blake Elliott, and Danville is historically a small-school football factory, so you know the Blue Devils will be in the mix. That's why I had them second and third, respectively.

Fredericktown, Mount Gilead and Centerburg are in the next tier and one of them could emerge to challenge the top three. Fredericktown brings back an experienced QB and tight end, while Mount Gilead has guys returning on both sides of the ball, and Centerburg is never totally down.

Cardington will be much better and more competitive as they return some skill position players and an All-Ohio running back who is an All-Ohio caliber linebacker in Wyatt Denney. If they finish closer to the middle of the pack, I wouldn't be shocked.

As for Loudonville, they hired a hall of fame coach in Ed Honabarger, so if the Redbirds are bad this year, they won't be for long. Get your licks in now KMAC.

Now for the Week 1 Friday night picks:

● Mount Vernon at Marion Harding: The Yellow Jackets' revolving door at head coach keeps spinning as former Teays Valley coach Mark Weber is the latest to take over the direction of the team. As for Harding, they should be settled. The coaching staff is in its second season, and the players are a year older. This is a winnable game, so we'll see how the Presidents handle their business. Pick: Marion Harding.

● Ashland at River Valley: Last year's game was instant classic, which Ashland won 26-20 in overtime. The Arrows have a major college prospect at quarterback in Nate Bernhard, and legendary coach Scott Valentine is in his second season of his second go-round with Ashland. This is a tough ask for the Vikings. Pick: Ashland.

● Pleasant at North Union: I'm so happy this game is happening. It's a low-key rivalry that helps tie North Union back to Marion County where it has a long and deep history of competing against our teams. It's a good one for the Spartans, too, as they get to play a like-sized school that's nearby. Pick: Pleasant.

● Fredericktown at Highland: The Freddies will be better in 2024, and the Scots are an enigma. Highland shut them out 35-0 last year, so I'm not sure the Scots are 35 points worse in 2024 or that Fredericktown is 35 points better. That seems like a lot. Pick: Highland.

● Elgin at Cardington: Another game that makes me happy it's played. The two are not rivals, but they played each other for years when both were in the MOAC. Like Pleasant-North Union, this is a game between similar schools in adjacent counties. It will be a much better game than last year's 30-0 win by the Comets. Pick: Elgin.

● Ridgedale at Hilltop: The Rockets handled Hilltop 20-6 last year in the opener, but now they have to make the trip to West Unity in extreme northwest Ohio near the Michigan border. The Cadets won one game in 2023, and Ridgedale has a lot back from last year's breakout six-win season. Pick: Ridgedale.

● Triad at Mount Gilead: Triad won one game last year, and Mount Gilead beat it 15-8 in that season's opener. MG is better in 2024. Pick: Mount Gilead.

● Upper Sandusky at Northmor: The Golden Knights doubled up Upper 42-21 to start last year. The Rams won four games a year ago and are picked to finish sixth in the eight-team Northern 10. Northmor has big aspirations this year. Pick: Northmor.

Rob McCurdy is the sports writer at the Marion Star and can be reached at rmccurdy@gannett.com, 419-610-0998, X @McMotorsport and Instagram @rob_mccurdy_star.

This article originally appeared on Marion Star: Friday Night Picks: Figuring out the MOAC, KMAC football races, plus Week 1 selections