The Lincoln Riley experience has not been all it was cracked up to be for USC, but they are "stuck together" because of his enormous $90 million contract buyout.
That is the view of ESPN's college football insider Pete Thamel, who compared the situation to Texas A&M's costly divorce from Jimbo Fisher last year. Like Fisher, Riley was brought in on big money with before being dismissed after numerous unhappy years with a $75m payout.
He delivered in his first season, leading the Trojans to an 11-3 record in 2022, with quarterback Caleb Williams winning the Heisman Trophy. But USC regressed significantly in Riley's second year, finishing with an 8-5 record.
And the slide has continued in 2024, with the Trojans making a horrible start to life in the Big Ten. The Trojans are 4-4 after Friday's victory over Rutgers, with a 2-4 record in the conference. All four losses have been by one possession, raising big questions over Riley's in-game coaching.
In a vacuum, a parting of the ways would be understandable at the end of this season, but it is not that simple for USC. The school would have to fork out the biggest contract buyout in college football history if they were to fire Riley.
"People are unhappy about USC," Thamel said on the "College GameDay" podcast . "My sources told me this week that Lincoln Riley would be owed $90 million if you were going to fire him. Right around $90 million. That's like Jimbo (Fisher) super-sized buyout. It feels like those two are a little bit stuck with each other right now, Lincoln Riley and USC.
"My instinct tells me they're going to run it back because nobody has a better option. It would not be expensive for him to leave and take another college job. But Florida can't hire Lincoln Riley right now if we're going to run out the ground ball. Could he return to the Big 12 and go to somewhere like Baylor?"
Riley was also coveted by NFL teams when he left Oklahoma for USC in 2022, with his air raid offense producing two Heisman Trophy winners in Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray. But two years on from leaving the Sooners, interest from the pros in Riley's services has faded.
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"I don't want to say the NFL market for Lincoln Riley as a head coach has disappeared, but it certainly isn't what it was at the end of Oklahoma when he was the belle of the ball and going and talking to all of these folks about his pass game," Thamel said. "I would think it has dissipated significantly because what he has not proven at USC is that he can build a holistic football team. He's proven that he can move the ball and gain yards.
"And, look, their defense is better, but there's no other way to say it – Lincoln Riley is cold right now. An NFL franchise is not going to hire a cold coach who lost four one-possession games and you could argue had better personnel in most of those games."
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