Is It Too Late to Buy Cava Stock?

In a year when investor attention has been wholly focused on artificial intelligence (AI), CAVA Group (NYSE: CAVA) has quietly been one of the best-performing stocks on the market.

Shares of the fast-casual chain are up 184% year to date through Aug. 23 as the company has posted a series of blowout earnings reports, making the case that it could be the next Chipotle Mexican Grill .

While Cava's bull run is certainly good news for investors who bought shortly after its IPO last June, for those who have watched from the sidelines, there's a more pertinent question to ask. Is it too late to buy Cava stock? Let's take a look at where the business stands today and its prospects over the long term.

Image source: Cava Group.

Cava's scorching growth

Cava's second-quarter results help explain why the stock has skyrocketed this year as the company delivered blowout results in virtually every key metric in the second quarter.

Comparable sales jumped 14.4%, including 9.5% growth in traffic, showing it's growing its customer base and customers are visiting more frequently.

It's also expanding rapidly, adding 18 new locations in the second quarter and increasing its base by 22%, which helped drive revenue up 35% to $231 million.

Cava's average unit volumes have reached $2.7 million, not far from Chipotle's at $3.1 million, showing its restaurants are popular. Meanwhile, the company's profitability is rapidly ramping up. Restaurant-level profit margins improved from 26.1% in the year-ago quarter to 26.5%, which compared to Chipotle's at 28.9%, the gold standard in the industry.

Cava's bottom-line profits are also soaring with net income tripling in the quarter to $19.7 million, giving Cava a profit margin of 8%, which is impressive for such a young restaurant company since that margin should increase as it grows.

The company has also succeeded in building a strong digital business, with digital sales making 36% of revenue in the quarter.

Where does Cava go from here

Cava finished the quarter with 341 locations, and it would seem to have room for growth given the strong demand for its product. Using Chipotle as an analog again, the burrito chain now has roughly 3,500 locations and expects to double that number to reach 7,000.

Cava CEO Brett Schulman said an interview earlier this year that the company was aiming to reach 1,000 locations by 2032. That goal may prove to be modest if Cava can maintain its current momentum, which has been driven partly by the launch of a new grilled steak entree, which management said "significantly outperformed its expectations."

Cava raised its store opening guidance for the year to 54-57, showing the company is already accelerating toward its goal of 1,000 locations. It also raised guidance for same-store sales and restaurant-level profit margins.

Is it too late to buy Cava?

Cava's breakout gains have been justified, but the stock is expensive, trading at a forward price to earnings (P/E) ratio of more than 300, though those estimates are likely to go up after the recent report. On a price-to-sales basis, Cava is also pricey at a price to sales (P/S) ratio of 14.

Comparing Cava to Chipotle, its market cap is now $14 billion, giving it nearly a fifth of Chipotle's market value of $73.6 billion, even though Cava has just 10% of the locations that Chipotle has.

In other words, investors expect Cava's profits to soar, and that expectation is largely baked into the share price.

Still, the company has a number of qualities that could make it the next major fast-casual chain, including the backing of Ron Shaich, the founder of Panera Bread who's now the chair of Cava, and the stock is still positioned to be a long-term winner.

Given the premium pricing, a good move would be taking a small position in Cava stock today and buying it opportunistically on pullbacks. While high expectations are baked into the stock, if comparable sales growth remains in the double digits, profits will continue to soar.

Jeremy Bowman has positions in Chipotle Mexican Grill. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Chipotle Mexican Grill. The Motley Fool recommends Cava Group and recommends the following options: short September 2024 $52 puts on Chipotle Mexican Grill. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy .