While Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) may be up 50% for the year, it's safe to say the past six months for Bitcoin investors have not gone as planned. After the Bitcoin halving in April, its price was supposed to skyrocket in value. But that simply has not happened. At its current price of $63,000, Bitcoin is essentially unchanged since the halving.
That creates a choice for investors. Should you invest in Bitcoin now and hope for it to soar in value, or are you better off searching for other high-risk, high-upside assets?
The short- and long-term views
If you're thinking about investing in Bitcoin now, you need to keep your expectations for the remainder of the year in check. Right now, the crypto prediction markets are saying that Bitcoin has a roughly 57% chance of hitting a new all-time high in 2024. Put another way, it's basically a coin flip whether Bitcoin can regain its all-time high of $73,750 by the end of the year. At the same time, these crypto prediction markets are also saying that Bitcoin only has a 14% chance of hitting $100,000 this year.
The good news is that Bitcoin's long-term view is much more optimistic. For example, investment firm Bernstein still thinks that Bitcoin will hit $200,000 by the end of 2025. And several influential investors, including Cathie Wood of Ark Invest , remain confident that Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2030. If you're willing to extend your horizon even further, Michael Saylor, founder and executive chairman of MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) , thinks that Bitcoin will hit $13 million by the year 2045.
So if you're thinking in terms of the next few months, then Bitcoin is probably not the right investment for you. You're better off buying a high-flying tech stock such as Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) , which is now up 159% for the year. But if you're thinking in terms of the next five years, or possibly even beyond, then Bitcoin can still be a fantastic investment.
Can Bitcoin become a "financial superhighway?"
The key to Bitcoin's long-term investment appeal is its ability to become a much more important player in the global financial system. Remember: Bitcoin is not just a digital currency, it's also a blockchain technology. And it's this blockchain technology -- with its promise of faster, cheaper, and more efficient financial transactions -- that could revolutionize the global financial system.
Image source: Getty Images.
The term that Wood uses to describe this potential is "financial superhighway," which clearly evokes "information superhighway," a term often heard in the early internet era. This described how the internet was used for transferring digital information around the world.
Substitute "blockchain" for "internet" and replace "digital information" with "economic value," and you get the idea behind Bitcoin. It could completely change the modern financial system as we know it. In fact, Wood says it could hit a price of $1.5 million within the next few years.
New political momentum
Admittedly, this is a big idea, and one that should be viewed with a fair amount of skepticism. After all, people have been talking about the revolutionary potential of Bitcoin for more than a decade now, and much of its promise as a payment technology is still unfulfilled. When was the last time you actually used Bitcoin to pay for something online?
But something has fundamentally changed for Bitcoin this year: the emergence of a pro-Bitcoin political movement. There's a growing realization that the United States is now falling behind other parts of the world in its adoption of crypto. As a result, politicians such as former president Donald Trump are now talking about making America the "crypto capital of the planet" and a "Bitcoin superpower." There's even been talk of a "Bitcoin arms race" with other nations.
In July, Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyoming) proposed the creation of a national strategic reserve for Bitcoin that would commit to buying 5% of all Bitcoin currently in circulation. The United States has a strategic national reserve of petroleum, she asks, so why shouldn't it also have a strategic reserve of Bitcoin?
How bullish should you be on Bitcoin?
These ideas might seem quixotic, or perhaps even dangerous. But they help explain why so many people are bullish on Bitcoin over the long term. They're also why so many people are predicting multimillion-dollar price targets for Bitcoin. After all, Bitcoin will not go to $1 million just because people are buying spot Bitcoin ETFs .
From 2013 to today, Bitcoin has soared in value from $100 to $63,000. If you think it could go on a similar run over the next decade, and if you're willing to accept the inherent risk and volatility of crypto, it might be worth adding Bitcoin to your portfolio while it's trading under $100,000.
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Dominic Basulto has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy .
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