Indy Elections is The Nevada Independent ’s newsletter devoted to comprehensive and accessible coverage of the 2024 elections, from the race for the White House to the bid to take control of the Legislature.
In today’s edition: What we know (and don’t know) about a dark money group supporting Nevada Democrats, a new poll from the Times showing Harris making gains in the Silver State, a Latino voter engagement group making a massive ad reservation in Nevada, the presidential primary cost the Silver State $1.3 million and new proposed election law changes coming to the Legislature.
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By the Numbers:
- 0 days since we heard the refrain #WeMatter…
- 77 days until Election Day
- 167 days until the start of the 83rd legislative session
The Democratic dark money juggernaut
By Eric Neugeboren
In recent years, few political groups in Nevada have given as much money to state-level political causes as the Nevada Alliance.
The nonprofit has donated more than $1 million to the group behind this year’s abortion rights ballot initiative, $3 million to a PAC tied to former Gov. Steve Sisolak and more than $1.6 million to a group opposing the ballot question on ranked-choice voting and open primaries.
But we don’t know who most of its donors are.
Federal tax law does not require the disclosure of donors for any group registered as a 501(c)(4), a type of nonprofit that can raise unlimited funds and lobby on issues that exclusively “promote social welfare” but cannot engage primarily in political activity. These nonprofits are often known as “dark money” groups because of the lack of transparency surrounding their funders.
But what we do know is that many other national dark money heavyweights are funders of the Nevada Alliance. These groups gave about $5 million to the group from 2018 to 2022 — good for more than a third of its total revenue.
Read more here on what we do — and don’t — know about one of the most prolific donors in state-level politics.
What we’re reading and writing
Indy Explains: Question 3 would see ranked-choice voting, open primaries in Nevada by Tabitha Mueller
The Democratic and Republican parties say no, but what will the voters choose?
Nevada Democrats set up 2025 fight with Lombardo over free school meals by Rocio Hernandez
Hard to argue with “Food for Kids” as a campaign slogan.
Poll: Harris leads Trump among Nevada Latino voters by Isabella Aldrete
Harris is reversing Biden’s slide with Latinos.
Harris unveils policy proposals to address affordable housing crisis by Eric Neugeboren and Tabitha Mueller
National Democrats emphasize: #HousingMatters
Majority of Nevadans support tax credits for EVs, clean energy, new poll finds by Eric Neugeboren and Amy Alonzo
Who said going green can’t be financially beneficial?
Buttigieg kicks off Nevada visit by highlighting major Las Vegas transit project by Isabella Aldrete
When public transportation becomes a hot topic on the campaign trail.
Why Trump's and Harris' proposals to end federal taxes on tips would be difficult to enact by Dee-Ann Durbin, Associated Press
Be sure no one tells the Culinary Union …
Indy Poll Watch
The New York Times/Siena College (Aug. 8-15)
- 677 likely voters
- Margin of error: 4.4 percentage points
The latest Times /Siena poll — which humiliated the Biden camp in May when it found him losing by double digits in Nevada — indicates that Harris has put the Silver State back into play.
Among likely Nevada voters, Trump leads Harris by 1 percentage point in the head-to-head and 2 percentage points in the full ballot test — a vast difference from the 12-point lead he had in May. The poll shows Harris is consolidating the Democratic vote with key constituency groups, including younger voters and voters of color.
Trump still retains some advantages — he’s winning independents by 6 percentage points and voters whose top issue is the economy by more than 20 points.
In the Senate race, the poll found Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) up on Republican candidate Sam Brown by 9 percentage points — a finding in line with other polls.
While pollsters themselves would caution you against reading too much into specific numbers before Labor Day, movement over time can be a helpful indicator of trends. The Times /Siena poll shows two — Harris has improved upon Biden’s margins enough to make Nevada a battleground once more, and Rosen still has a comfortable lead over Brown.
Of course, elections aren’t held in August — and we’ll be watching to see how these trends play out during the fourth quarter of the electoral season.
— Gabby Birenbaum
Indy Ad Watch
AD-NALYSIS OF THE WEEK: A massive Spanish ad buy
Somos Votantes, a group that promotes Latino civic and voter engagement, has reserved $670,000 worth of ad space in Nevada to support Vice President Kamala Harris, part of a $1.5 million ad buy announced Monday in Nevada and Arizona.
The 30-second Spanish-language spot focuses on the Inflation Reduction Act, a seismic law passed by Congressional Democrats two years ago that included an increase of the minimum corporate tax rate and a slew of tax credits related to energy efficiency, clean energy and electric vehicle use. The ad credits the law for creating 25,000 jobs in Nevada and lowering prices.
The ad buy means that Somos Votantes is now the fifth-largest ad spender in Nevada for the presidential election, only following both campaigns and supportive super PACs, according to AdImpact, an ad-tracking firm.
The Spanish-language ad comes after a poll last week found Harris leading former President Donald Trump by 18 percentage points among Latinos in Nevada, and another survey found Harris doing better than President Joe Biden among Silver State Latinos but still lagging behind Biden’s 2020 numbers.
— Eric Neugeboren
TOP FOUR ADS WITH THE HIGHEST SPENDING (8/13-8/19)
Data from political ad-tracking organization AdImpact
- U.S. Senate race: MAGA Inc. (anti-Harris) - The Most
- Began airing: 7/26
- Total spend: $1,457,362
- Ad impressions (number of times an advertisement was seen, regardless of whether the viewer took any action): 11.5 million
- U.S. Senate race: One Nation (anti-Rosen) - Squeezed
- Began airing: 8/13
- Total spend: $908,214
- Ad impressions: 10.8 million
- U.S. Senate race: WinSenate (anti-Brown) - Record Says Another
- Began airing: 8/14
- Total spend: $736,642
- Ad impressions: 8.4 million
- U.S. Senate race: Harris for President (pro-Harris) - Determinacion (Spanish ad)
- Began airing: 8/8
- Total spend: $613,653
- Ad impressions: 1.7 million
ONE OTHER TIDBIT
- Conservative group Americans for Prosperity (AFP) launched two new ads Monday hammering Rosen on the economy — an issue Republicans believe is a winning one. Both ads fault Rosen’s votes for Democratic policies as contributing to inflation and the increased cost of living. They are part of a $3.5 million digital and television ad buy across Senate races in five swing states.
SPENDING SUMMARY FOR THE WEEK
— Gabby Birenbaum, Tabitha Mueller and Eric Neugeboren
The Lightning Round
Presidential primary cost $1.3 million — Nevada’s first-ever presidential preference primary in February cost the state $1.3 million. The state Board of Examiners — a panel consisting of the governor, attorney general and secretary of state — approved the payment last week to the secretary of state’s budget account, as is outlined in state law. Most of the costs — more than $900,000 — resulted from ballot expenditures in Clark County.
BDRs from election committee meeting — Members of an interim legislative committee on elections approved the submission of five bill draft requests last week pertaining to elections, a formal move to ask the Legislature’s legal counsel to draft a bill. The requests included:
- Allowing a person’s amended signature to become a voter’s official signature on file
- Requiring the secretary of state’s office to be responsible for mailing voter registration notices (not county clerks)
- Creating a fee of $1,000 for a person to enter the presidential preference primary (up from $0)
- Authorizing any county to create a registrar of voters office (current law only permits Clark and Washoe).
- Bringing back provisions that were included in AB246 , which was vetoed by Gov. Joe Lombardo last year and would have published election materials in more languages.
GOP leaders host event to counter DNC — Nevada GOP leaders — including Chair Michael McDonald and state Sen. Lisa Krasner (R-Reno) — held a live-streamed event in Reno Monday morning, the first day of the Democratic National Convention. The event focused on Harris’ record on immigration and the economy.
— Eric Neugeboren
Looking Ahead
- Wednesday, Aug. 21: Senate Majority Leader Nicole Cannizzaro (D-Las Vegas) is holding a press conference with Planned Parenthood and Nevada fertility advocates to discuss a plan to introduce legislation protecting in vitro fertilization (IVF) in the Silver State.
- Friday, Aug. 23 : Former President Donald Trump is returning to Las Vegas for an event highlighting his no taxes on tips proposal.
— Eric Neugeboren
And to ease you into the week, a few “posts” to “X” that caught our eye:
We’ll see you next week.
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